MLB picks Sunday 9/18: YRFI & NRFI best bets today - Red Sox crush Kris Bubic

Boston Red Sox hitter Xander Bogaerts
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Mark Lammey


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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind. For Mark Lammey media enquiries, please email
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Sundays in the MLB are a beautiful thing as there are games all throughout the day. With it also being NFL season, you may not want to have to sweat out a 3-hour long game. However, we have you covered. By predicting if a run will be scored in the 1st inning or not, we can profit in about 15 minutes. There’s plenty of teams still fighting for a postseason berth, and others trying to play the role of spoiler. With so much going on, it may seem like a lot to break down. Thankfully, we’ve targeted the best spots for today’s slate.

Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games. Let’s take a closer look at my 2 favorite YRFI/NRFI bets for today.

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Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals: NRFI (-130)

These teams came through with an NRFI play for us in the series opener, and they should do the same in the finale. That was without Sandy Alcantara on the mound, who will be for today’s game. 

He’s the much more obvious part of this play, as he’s virtually a shoe-in to win the NL Cy Young. He speaks for himself at this point, but it’s still worth noting just how dominant he’s been. His 4 complete games are more than any other entire team in the league, and he’s been able to take down some of the top teams. One such situation was his recent complete game win over the league-best Dodgers. Alcantara also kept the Nationals scoreless for 9 full innings the last time he faced them. His ability to lead the team to wins despite a lack of run support also speaks to the other half of this play. The Marlins offense has been awful since all-star break, scoring 3 or fewer runs in all but a handful of their games. 

They’re without several top hitters like Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler. Therefore, it’s no surprise that they’re the lowest-scoring team in the 1st inning. That should continue against Nats starter Anibal Sanchez. He’s certainly not Alcantara, but he’s proven he’s still got it. He’s looking to bounce back after allowing Bryce Harper a 1st-inning RBI his last time out. Before that, he hadn’t allowed an early run in 8 straight starts. That included 2 starts against the Cardinals, 2 more against the Padres, and another against the Mets. The Marlins have no one of the caliber of Harper or those lineups, so don’t expect either team to cross the plate in the 1st inning.   

Be sure to check out our Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals predictions

Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-140)

This total is the highest on the board today, and it’s for good reason. Fenway Park has the best hitting conditions of any game going this Sunday. 

That includes windy Wrigley Field in Chicago. There are double-digit winds blowing out to right-center, and warm weather with the afternoon game. That should help both lineups, and even the Royals have proven they can take advantage of the Red Sox pitching. They crushed them for 9 runs last night, and Boston’s pitching has been the primary reason for their disappointing season. Starter Nick Pivetta is no exception. He faced the Royals at the start of last month, and things did not go well. Not only did the Sox get upset 7-3 in that game, Pivetta allowed 2 runs in the 1st inning. They were scored by Kansas City’s stud rookies MJ Melendez and Bobby Witt Jr. 

Unfortunately for Sox fans, they’re still the top 2 hitters in the lineup. However, Boston also scored 2 runs in the 1st inning of that game. Don’t let last night’s shutout fool you. Royals starter Kris Bubic is terrible. He’s 2-12 on the year with a 5.55 ERA. In fact, he was the one on the mound in that 7-3 game, and allowed those 2 runs in the 1st inning. Sox slugger Rafael Devers drove in those runs, and he’s been consistent all season. He’s among the league-leaders for doubles, along with teammate Xander Bogaerts. Even if Bogaerts rests again today, J.D. Martinez is also tied with Devers with the 3rd-most doubles in the AL. Given there were 4 runs in the 1st inning the last time we had this exact starting pitching matchup, expect at least 1 today.  

Be sure to check out our Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox predictions

How to bet YRFI & NRFI bets risk-free

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