MLB picks Thursday 10/12: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Don't fade these starters

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) throws against the Chicago White Sox in the first inning at Truist Park.
Photo of Caleb Wilfinger

Caleb Wilfinger


Show Bio

Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email

Only one series remains in the MLB Divisional Round and it features what should be a terrific matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action this postseason, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. Even at this point in the season, there is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.

I’m currently on a 39-22 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for today’s postseason matchup.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-125)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Seeing as we have only a single game in store on Thursday, I have only one pick in the YRFI/NRFI market for the Divisional Series games on tap. And for this pick, I’ll be going with the NRFI in this National League matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. This has been a bet that cashed in Games 1 and 3, and I think we’ll get back to the window once again by fading these (very good) offenses in Game 4.

This bet hinges on fading a pair of offenses that have been dominating against opposing pitchers all season long, and that’s continued into this series. However, the opening frame hasn’t produced many runs from either team in this series. Atlanta’s lineup woke up a bit at home in Game 2, but that didn’t carry over into Game 3 on the road. I don’t see the Braves bats making a recovery in the early stages of Game 4 against a confident pitcher in Ranger Suarez who already stymied Atlanta’s offense over 3.2 IP in Game 1. I’m expecting a quick inning from Suarez in front of his home fans.

On the other side, Spencer Strider has heard all the talk of how last postseason went, and he’s answered the bell so far. Strider was very effective against Philadelphia in Game 1, tossing 7 innings of 2-run ball while allowing just 5 hits and striking out 8. While he might not get a ton of run support once again on Thursday, I still like Strider’s chances of seeing early success against the top of the Phillies lineup. After all, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have poor numbers off Strider, so it’ll likely come down to whether the Braves ace can sit down Bryce Harper in his first AB. Harper’s biggest moments in this season have come in the middle innings, so I’ll take that chance here.

Check out our MLB predictions for Braves vs Phillies today

By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy