MLB Same Game Parlay: New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves (+1335)

Andrew Ortenberg

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New York Mets -3.5 (+550)

Taijuan Walker over 5.5 strikeouts (+140)

Parlay odds: +1335

Keeping things simple with another two-leg parlay here, one which pays out just north of 13/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:

New York Mets -3.5 (+550)

The Mets are slight underdogs here, but they shouldn’t be. New York just got swept by the Rays over the weekend, and now oddsmakers have overreacted. Right before that sweep the Mets had won seven games in a row, so I’m not too concerned. They’ll also have Walker on the mound here, who has been phenomenal. They’ve won six of his seven starts this season, and in three of his past four outings he’s gone seven-plus innings while giving up one or zero runs.

It’s been an entirely different story for Braves starter Max Fried. Fried has a 6.55 ERA and an eye-popping 1.73 WHIP. That’s even after being solid in his past couple of starts. He obviously has a low floor, as evidenced by his couple meltdowns already in only five 2021 starts, which is great for this prop. Almost half of the Mets wins this season (seven of 18) have come by at least four runs, so they’ve clearly got the upside to cover this alt run line.

Taijuan Walker over 5.5 strikeouts (+140)

This play correlates very strongly with the Mets winning big. If the Mets are going to win by four or more runs, it’s going to be because Walker had another very good game. He has a 2.20 ERA, and has been a massive acquisition. He’s gotten to at least seven strikeouts in three of his seven starts, so getting to six certainly isn’t any sort of long-shot.

This Braves lineup has been a disappointment, and they’re in the top half of the league in strikeouts. Walker has 39 strikeouts in 41 innings this year and has been a strikeout an inning guy the last couple seasons, so I think we’ll only need six innings from him here to cash this.