MLB San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers 7/1 same game parlay at (+575 odds) - Smith, Freeman smash on Friday night

Los Angeles Dodgers hitter Will Smith
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Mark Lammey

MLB · 1 month ago

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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind.

The Padres and Dodgers were expected to battle for the NL West title this season, and they’re doing exactly that. After L.A. took the series opener last night, they’re now 2.5 games up on San Diego. It also gave the Dodgers the best record in the National League. The Padres opened the series with their ace, but came up short and will now have to take on an undefeated pitcher themselves. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.

Dodgers ML (-180)

Freddie Freeman 2+ total bases (+140)

Will Smith 2+ total bases (+115)

Parlay odds: +575

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-180) over San Diego Padres

The Padres had Joe Musgrove on the mound for last night’s series opener, and were still unable to defeat the Dodgers. He’s number 2 in the NL Cy Young odds and pitched well outside of 2 Justin Turner home runs. If San Diego was unable to support Musgrove when hitting against Mitch White, there’s no reason to expect them to do so against Tony Gonsolin tonight. White is the Dodgers’ last option in their starting rotation, whereas Gonsolin is quite the opposite.

Not only did the Padres produce just a single run last night, they even had Manny Machado back in the lineup. Along with multiple pinch hitters, the Dodgers pitching staff proved to be too dominant to handle. That’s great news for L.A. fans with Gonsolin getting the start on Friday night. He’s been fantastic this season, now 9-0 and looking to be the first National League pitcher with 10 wins. He still has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in any start, allowing him to maintain an incredible 1.58 ERA. He hasn’t faced the Padres yet this year, but that also means they haven’t gotten familiar with him either.

Machado struck out 3 times in his first game back after 9 days, and may need a few games to get back into form. Without their leader producing, San Diego shouldn’t be expected to perform much better tonight.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Freddie Freeman 2+ total bases (+140)

There’s no secret behind this play, as Freddie Freeman has been dominant all season. He has 145 total bases this year, the 9th-most in the league. While that is still 2 behind his own teammate Trea Turner, there is a significant drop-off in value. Freeman is listed at +140 for this prop, while Turner is at -130. That is almost dramatic enough to feel like these odds are mispriced. Regardless, it should be used as Freeman has 90 hits this season, the 4th-most in the league. Similarly, his 24 doubles is the 4th–most, and he also has 2 triples and 9 home runs. It’s rare for him to get shut down like he did last night, especially after he recorded 7 total bases in 2 games heading into the series. Now that he won’t be hitting against Musgrove, expect Freeman to bounce back on Friday night. 

Will Smith 2+ total bases (+115)

Another hitter that will be avoiding Musgrove is Will Smith. The specific situation is even better news for Smith, as it’s Blake Snell getting the start for the Padres. He may not be as well-known as Turner or Freeman, but he’s a great hitter who loves hitting Snell in particular. He has a .800 slugging percentage against the lefty, including 2 extra-base hits and a home run. His 104 total bases is less than Freeman’s 145, yet he is still priced lower at +110. That illustrates how much impact a matchup against a specific pitcher has. Even still, he actually has more home runs on the year than Freeman with 12. There are plenty of hitters in the Dodgers lineup to like against Snell, but Smith looks to be the play with his prior success.  

Don’t miss our cross-sport parlay including an MLB play (+1464 odds!)

What is a Same Game Parlay?

Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?

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