MLB Tuesday NRFI/YRFI best bets 7/5: Slow starts in Boston and Miami

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Philliesa at Citizens Bank Park.
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Keith

MLB · 1 month ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

One of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, but one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well priced and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose.

Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game today.

There are 2 NRFI bets I like today, so let’s get right into it.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox NRFI (+100)

Nick Pivetta and Jeffrey Springs have been dominant this season, especially in the first inning. Opponents are 9-for-55 (.164) against Pivetta in the first inning this season. The right-hander has allowed just 2 runs in the first frame this year and one of those runs was by a solo home run. Pivetta will face the Rays, who will likely have Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco and Harold Ramirez as the top 3 in the lineup. Against Pivetta in their careers, Diaz is 2-for-9 (.222) with a strikeout, Franco is 2-for-12 (.167) with 4 strikeouts and Ramirez is 2-for-2 (1.000). 

Springs has a 0.90 ERA in the first frame this season. Opponents are 6-for-35 (.171) with a 28.6% strikeout rate against Springs in the first inning. The left-hander will likely face Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and JD Martinez at the top of the Red Sox order. Both Duran and Devers are left-handed hitters which gives a slight advantage to Springs. Against Springs in their careers, Duran has never faced the lefty, Devers is 3-for-6 (.500) with a strikeout, and Martinez is 0-for-1 with a strikeout. 

Two excellent starting pitchers will take the mound and it will likely take the hitters until the second time through the order to find success, so back the NRFI (No Run First Inning) in the Rays-Red Sox game.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox

Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins NRFI (-132)

Sandy Alcantara has been having a career season in Miami, and it might just earn him the NL Cy Young. Alcantara has a 1.95 ERA with a 2.67 xERA in 115.1 innings and has limited opponents to a .215 xBA. In the first inning, Alcantara has a 2.25 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. Opponents are 10-for-54 (.185) with a 27.7% strikeout rate against Alcantara in the first frame. The right-hander will likely face Taylor Ward, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani as the first 3 batters in the Angels order and none of them have faced Alcantara in their careers. 

Noah Syndergaard has not been as dominant in the first inning this season, but the Miami offense has been poor in the first frame. The Marlins rank 24th in OPS and 26th in batting average in the first inning this season and 26th in first inning runs per game. Syndergaard will likely face Jon Berti, Joey Wendle and Garrett Cooper as the top 3 in the Miami order, but the Marlins change their lineup frequently, so that is something to keep an eye on. In their careers against Syndergaard, Berti is 3-for-3 (1.000), Wendle has never faced him, and Cooper is 0-for-4 with 1 strikeout.

Both teams can start slowly, so there should be a scoreless first frame in Miami. Back the NRFI in the Angels-Marlins game.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins

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