Ricky Dimon
NBA
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We have a nine-game slate in the NBA on Thursday and it is headlined by one nationally televised showdown—this one on TNT between the Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Heat-Pelicans, and be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Pelicans -2.5 (-110)
Under 227.5 (-110)
Brandon Ingram to score 30+ points (+275)
Parlay odds: +1215
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is part of the plan here, as we feel good about the Pelicans’ chances of getting the job done and a big night from Brandon Ingram would obviously go a long way in that effort. At the same time, a point-scoring barrage by Ingram doesn’t correlate with an under play, and therefore the overall payout of the parlay is driven up. And it’s not like this game can’t stay under a sizable 227.5 number even if the former Duke star reaches the 30-point mark.
Pelicans -2.5 (-110)
It is true that the Pelicans have cooled off of late, losing three of their last four. They most recently lost to the Bulls 128-124 earlier this week, but as that result suggests New Orleans is having no trouble scoring the ball. This team also plays better at home than on the road for the most part. Zion Williamson and company have won 10 of their 18 home games this season—that includes a 110-104 victory over none other than Miami on Christmas Day. The Heat briefly showed signs of going into the all-star break with some momentum, but they threw it away by losing to a struggling Atlanta team on Tuesday. Jimmy Butler missed that contest due to injury and he is questionable for this one. Bam Adebayo is also questionable. If both of those two guys don’t play—or even if one of them doesn’t play—Miami could be in some serious trouble.
Under 227.5 (-110)
It’s been a challenge on the offensive end for the Heat even with Butler in the lineup. They are dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, and against the Hawks—who aren’t exactly known for their defense—they managed only 80 points at home with just three players scoring in double-figures. New Orleans is also by no means a defensive juggernaut, but it could keep Miami under the century mark if Butler and Adebayo are out. The under is 14-6 in Miami’s last 20 playing on one day of rest and 5-0 in the last five head-to-head matchups between these two days. Only 209 points were scored in the Christmas contest, so this total is especially curious given both that result and Miami’s injury issues.
Brandon Ingram to score 30+ points (+275)
Ingram has scored more than 20 point on seven consecutive occasions, including at least 25 points in five of those seven. In other words, it wouldn’t take that much more of an effort to reach 30. If Adebayo is sidelined, it hurts Miami’s defense dramatically. If Adebayo plays, it improves the Heat’s paint presence in a major way. But Adebayo in the paint would be more of a problem for Williamson than it would be for Ingram. Either way, Ingram is in like for a strong showing. He delivered 28 points in the previous head-to-head matchup. An extra bucket certainly isn’t too much to ask.
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