NFL Prop Bets

This quota is simply too low, and it’s one I expect Walker to surpass comfortably on Sunday. Even when Charbonnet was sharing time, Walker was still exceeding this number more often that not. KW3 has amassed at least 29 receiving yards in 3 straight games and in 4 of the last 5. In 2 of his last 3 regular-season appearances, he went for 64 and 36 yards through the air. Walker is coming off an NFC Championship performance in which he delivered 111 total yards from scrimmage, including 49 on his 4 catches. This play obviously correlates nicely with the over on his catches, so let’s be bullish on Walker’s all-aroud receiving performance in Super Bowl 60. 

Most importantly, Walker is alone in Seattle’s backfield for all intents and purposes now that Zach Charbonnet is sidelined (Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL in the divisional round against San Francisco). As such, Walker’s volume of work is getting heavier and heavier. He got 22 touches (3 receptions) against the 49ers and 23 touches (4 receptions) against the Rams in the NFC Championship. The Michigan State product has made at least 3 catches in 3 consecutive contests dating back to the regular season – also in 4 of the last 5 and in 7 of the last 10. The Seahawks are now going up against a Patriots defense that yielded the fifth-most receptions (84) to opposing running backs in the regular season. 

My favorite Jaxon Smith-Njigba player prop for Super Bowl LX is for the star wide receiver to go under his receiving yards total. I know, I know, betting an Under isn’t always fun when it comes to NFL games, but I expect Patriots Head Coach Mike Vrabel to center his inner Bill Belichick by taking away the opposing team’s best player in big games. To be fair, the Pats have done a fairly good job at taking away opposing teams’ top WRs, as they’ve allowed just 60.3 receiving yards per game in their 20 contests this NFL season. During the postseason, Ladd McConkey went for 32, Jayden Higgins recorded 59 receiving yards, and Courtland Sutton mustered just 17 yards in the AFC Championship. 

Now, JSN is a step above those wide receivers, but opposing wideouts have only cleared 95 receiving yards against the Patriots in 5 of their 20 games. 2 of those games came in Weeks 1 and 2 when Christian Gonzalez was on the sidelines with a hamstring injury, so opposing WRs have only cleared this line in 17% of Patriots games this season when Gonzo is on the field. The last time an opposing receiver cleared this line against New England was in Week 10, so they’ve gone 10 straight games without allowing 95+ yards to an opposing wideout. The Patriots defense has allowed just 138.3 passing yards per game this postseason and 193.5 yards per game during the regular season (9th in the NFL). This won’t be an easy matchup for Sam Darnold, and I expect JSN will be bottled up in a big way, which is why I’m betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-110).

Maye has faced three defensive juggernauts in this year’s postseason, and if the Patriots capture Super Bowl LX, he’ll have faced four of the top-10 scoring and total defenses from the regular season, which would be quite the feat. Although the 23-year-old hasn’t played his best through three postseason games, I actually expect him to ball out against this Seattle secondary. First off, it’s worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t had to face many elite QBs this season other than Rams QB Matthew Stafford. Since their Week 8 bye, they’ve faced a hobbled Jayden Daniels, three backup QBs, Cam Ward, Philip Rivers, Bryce Young, Brock Purdy and Stafford. 

The only QBs they’ve faced this season ranked in the top-10 for passing yards are Stafford, Trevor Lawrence (Week 6) and Baker Mayfield (Week 5). Those three quarterbacks averaged 307.2 passing yards in 5 games, and Stafford torched this secondary for 457 and 365 yards in their last 2 meetings. Drake Maye was a top-4 QB in total passing yards this season and cleared this line in 14 of the Pats’ 17 regular-season contests. He also threw for 268 yards against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, and although he failed to surpass 180 yards against the Texans and Broncos, both of those games were in adverse weather conditions, and New England relied on their run game to advance. 

I know some fans have questions about Maye in the postseason, but I expect the sophomore QB to come up big against Seattle and will gladly back him to exceed his passing prop.

New England’s defense did not have a good interception-to-touchdown ratio during the regular season. To go along with its modest 10 picks, it allowed 25 scores through the air. By comparison, the Patriots surrendered only 11 TDs on the ground. A red-hot Darnold should be able to take advantage of this matchup. His recent form extends well beyond just the 31-27 NFC Championship victory over the Rams. The former #3 overall pick has now thrown multiple touchdown passes 9 times throughout this 2025 campaign. It’s worth noting that Zach Charbonnet is sidelined by a torn ACL and he is – or was – more of a red-zone threat than fellow running back Kenneth Walker III. When the Seahawks approach paydirt this weekend, count on Darnold and star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba going to work.

Speaking of explosive, Rashid Shaheed is capable of taking any kickoff, punt, catch, or carry to the house. He was one of the biggest trade deadline acquisitions for a Seahawks team that desperately needed another wide receiver other than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who could be a real threat on the outside. That explosion was on full display in the NFC Championship game. He took the opening kick for a touchdown, while reeling in a 51-yard pass, and getting a carry in the backfield. Expect Seattle to get their shiny new toy going early on Super Bowl Sunday.

Let’s start with a bomb. TreVeyon Henderson saw just four snaps in the AFC Championship, while Rhamondre Stevenson dominated the backfield with 25 rushing attempts. The rookie continues to be underutilized after a solid rookie campaign that featured nine rushing touchdowns, including four of over 50 yards – The most by any player in Patriots history. He’s the biggest threat in the Patriots offense that features aging veterans at the receiver and tight end positions. If the Patriots look to involve both backs on their opening drive, Henderson is a play at 30/1 to be the first touchdown scorer.

The Los Angeles Rams had zero problems scoring points in the NFC Championship game versus the lethal Seahawks defense. However, that didn’t stop the Seattle special teams unit from cashing in and scoring a touchdown on the opening kickoff. Rashid Shaheed is a threat to take any kickoff for a touchdown, as is the Seahawks ball-hawking secondary, thanks to an elite pass rush that has registered four turnovers in two games this postseason.

Mack Hollins, along with Stefon Diggs, brings veteran experience to a team led by a 23-year-old MVP candidate and one of the youngest rosters in the league. He was a vital part of the Patriots AFC Championship win, as he reeled in both targets for 51 yards and played the 2nd most snaps in the wide receiver room — one behind Kayshon Boutte, who was blanketed for just one catch. In a likely negative game script, look for Drake Maye to target Hollins more than we saw in the Denver blizzard.

There is no denying that Seattle’s pass defense is also stout, but it can be attacked from the tight-end position. The Seahawks surrendered the fifth-most receptions to opposing tight ends (105) and the sixth-most yards in the regular season. I expect that trend to continue, especially with CB Devon Witherspoon likely to put the clamps down on Patriots WR1 Stefon Diggs. That will put the pressure on Henry to step up, and he definitely can. Henry racked up 64 yards and a touchdown in the wild-card round against the Chargers before bad weather prevented anyone on offense from doing much against the Texans and Broncos. The Arkansas product surpassed this 36.5 number 10 times during the regular season, including in 5 of the last 7 games. During that stretch, he gained fewer than 35 yards only once. 

First of all, this will likely be a negative game script for the Patriots. They are +4.5 underdogs and a lot of people – me included – think they would do well to stay within that number. If New England is playing from behind all or most of the way, Maye will be forced to air it out. That is what the majority of Seattle’s opponents have done. During the regular season, teams attempted 600 passes against the Seahawks – fifth most in the NFL. Andy why not? Seattle’s run defense ranked #3 in the league and #1 in yards per carry allowed (3.7). Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford took to the air 35 times in the NFC Championship. As for Maye, his relatively low passing numbers in the playoffs can be thrown out the window due to playing conditions. In the regular season, the former UNC standout exceeded this 30.5 quota in 5 of the last 8 contests – a stretch that included games with 44, 35 and 34 attempts. Maye should be in line for a lot during the Super Bowl. 

The Seahawks’ backfield now belongs entirely to Walker after Zach Charbonnet went down with a torn ACL in the divisional round against the 49ers. Walker promptly delivered 111 yards from scrimmage and 1 touchdown in Seattle’s NFC Championship victory over Los Angeles. Four of his 23 touches were receptions, which he turned into 49 yards. The Michigan State product has exceeded this 23.5 number in 3 consecutive contests and in 4 of the last 5. In his last 3 regular-season games, Walker had receiving performances of 64 and 36 yards – and that was when he was still splitting time with Charbonnet. The Seahawks now face a Patriots defense that yielded 84 receptions to opposing RBs in the regular season (5th-most in the NFL). New England head coach Mike Vrabel will likely channel his inner Bill Belichick and attempt to take away Seattle’s best player, who is WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He can do that with double-teams while putting CB Christian Gonzalez on WR2 Cooper Kupp, or Vrabel can let Gonzalez try to contain JSN by himself with some safety help. Either way, the Pats’ pass defense won’t be focused on KW3.  

I’m not sure why there would have been any lingering doubts about Darnold even prior to the NFC Championship. If there were, they are gone now. In the biggest game of his career, Darnold played one of his best – completing 25 of 36 attempts for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. The former USC standout is INT-free through 2 playoff games and has not been picked off since Week 17. Further, Darnold has not thrown an interception in 6 of his last 10 games. The former #3 overall pick threw 14 INTs in the regular season, but those came in bunches (4 against the Rams on November 16, for example). Now, however, they aren’t coming at all. Yes, New England’s defense is good — but it’s a unit that grabbed only 10 picks while surrendering 25 TDs through the air in the regular season. At plus money, this prop has great value.