NFL Week 15 same game parlay (+917): Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) makes a call at the line of scrimmage during the second half of their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
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Ricky Dimon

NFL· 1 month ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

It will be a crucial contest in the NFC wild-card race when the San Francisco 49ers host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco currently owns the No. 6 seed, while Atlanta is tied for the seventh and final spot. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Falcons vs 49ers, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.

Falcons +3.5 alternate spread (+200)

Cordarrelle Patterson Over 49.5 rushing yards (-113)

George Kittle to score a touchdown (-115)

Parlay odds: +917

Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is only some of the plan here, as Cordarrelle Patterson rushing for a fair amount of yards would obviously work well with Atlanta making this one competitive. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing George Kittle to score a touchdown. But even if Kittle accomplishes that feat, there is no reason why the Falcons can’t hang around. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.

Falcons +3.5 alternate spread (+200)

Yes, it’s Week 15 and the Falcons are still in very realistic playoff contention; you can’t make this stuff up, folks. Atlanta suffered some humiliating losses to Dallas and New England last month, but it is a different team with Patterson on the field. He has been red hot when healthy and even Mike Davis added 44 (plus 42 receiving yards) during last weekend’s 29-21 victory at Carolina. Matt Ryan has played 2 straight games without throwing an interception for the first time since Week 3 through Week 5. There won’t be much of a home-field advantage in this one. San Francisco is 5-2 at Levi’s Stadium, but Atlanta is 5-2 on the road compared to 1-5 at home. The 49ers are coming off 2 extremely physical and hard-fought battles, losing to Seattle 30-23 and then beating Cincinnati 26-23 in overtime. Running back Elijah Mitchell (concussion/knee) already missed last week’s game and is also out for this one. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road. San Francisco is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 at home. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta not only covers but also keeps it within a field goal.

Cordarrelle Patterson Over 49.5 rushing yards (-113)

Patterson is quite simply a jack of all trades for the Falcons. In fact, he is even listed as their third-string safety! Of late, the Tennessee product has been getting more and more work out of the backfield. Patterson has led Atlanta in rushing in 3 consecutive contests since returning from an ankle injury. That includes outputs of 108, 78, and 58 yards on the ground. Given that the Niners are fifth in the league in passing defense but nothing more than mediocre against the run, you have to like Patterson’s chances of another successful day running the football.

George Kittle to score a touchdown (-115)

The Falcons are in the bottom half of the NFL in passing defense and also in the bottom half in terms of fantasy points allowed to tight ends. This is a favorable matchup for Kittle, who is absolutely on fire right now. Over his last 2 games he has 22 receptions on 27 targets for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns. The star TE out of Iowa has found the endzone 6 times in his last 6 contests. Getting him at close to even money for another TD is an absolute steal.

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