Sunday Night Football in Week 5 of the NFL season should be a fun one, as the Dallas Cowboys visit the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams have playoff aspirations, although Dallas (2-2) has been a disappoint so far relative to Pittsburgh (3-1).
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Cowboys vs Steelers predictions.
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Pittsburgh running back Najee Harris racking up his fair share of yards would obviously work well with a win by the Steelers. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb to have a big night at the office. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business.
Pittsburgh lost at the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4, but that was its first blemish in 2024. The Steelers’ defense has been borderline dominant so far, holding all of their first 3 opponents (the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers) to 10 points or fewer. They are second in the NFL in scoring defense, third in run defense and ninth in passing defense. Good luck to Dak Prescott being comfortable in the pocket with T.J. Watt bearing down on him. Dallas is coming off a win over the New York Giants, but that was hardly a convincing performance on the heels of 2 consecutive losses. The Cowboys are by no means playing great football. Moreover, both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are sidelined for a defense that ranks 25th in yards per play allowed. I’ll back head coach Mike Tomlin’s team to win and cover.
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Harris has gotten 67 carries through 4 games; no other Steelers RB has rushed more than 16 times. It is true that Justin Fields is a significant part of Pittsburgh’s ground game, but the bottom line is that Harris’ volume is work is substantial – at least to the extent that something like 20 carries for at least 80 yards is not out of the question on Sunday night. Dallas is #27 in the league in run defense, allowing 145.8 yards per game on 4.6 yards per attempt. Harris has already churned out least 69 rushing yards in 3 games through 4 weeks, so another productive performance at the expense of a mediocre Cowboys defense should be in the cards.
The Steelers’ defense is good all over the place – but if there is a way to attack it, it’s through the air. After all, Pittsburgh ranks third in the NFL against the run and is surrendering just 3.7 yards per rushing attempt. Giving up 7.1 yards per pass attempt leaves the Steelers in the bottom half of the league in that department. Don’t be surprised if Lamb takes advantage of this opportunity. He has already reached the 90-mark twice this season, so asking him to get to 100 should not be too much. This also doesn’t really conflict with the Steelers covering -2.5, because we want the Cowboys to play from behind – in which case Prescott would be taking to the air and feeding the rock to Lamb.
