Connor Grootenhuis
MLB
Show Bio
Weekend baseball is here! There is a ton of MLB action going on today and tomorrow, which means there are plenty of opportunities to find value on some player props. I have two specific props in mind that I will share here today, but before we get to these, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks if you’re looking to bet any game sides or totals.
Here we go!
Nick Castellanos over 0.5 RBI (+175)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The Reds were shut out by the Cubs yesterday, but facing Chicago starter Zach Davies should give Cincinnati some confidence for a better day at the plate. Davies is giving up a lot of hard contact, as his hard-hit rate is in just the 43rd percentile for all MLB pitchers. If the Reds offense is going to have a solid day at the plate, there is a good chance Castellanos will be involved.
Castellanos is hitting at a .358 clip so far this season, and he is hitting .341 with RISP on the year. In addition, he has a ton of power with 12 home runs, so the possibility of a long ball is always there. He is also a former Cub, and had a great run at the plate when Wrigley Field was his home ballpark. He will be familiar with the territory, and there is good value at +175 for Castellanos to drive in a run this afternoon.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Yu Darvish under 6.5 strikeouts (-127)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Yu Darvish has been sensational this season, but he will have a pretty tough test this afternoon. Darvish will face the Astros at Minute Maid Park, and they love hitting in their home ballpark. Houston is posting a .273 average and .786 OPS at Minute Maid Park this season, and they have not been striking out very often recently.
In the last 15 days, Houston’s 67 strikeouts are the fewest in all of baseball, and the second-fewest is Pittsburgh with 91. Darvish has strong strikeout numbers this season, but one stat that stands out is his chase rate being in just the 28th percentile of all MLB pitchers. He has thrown pitches over the plate that hitters have not been able to hit, but with the Astros being one of the better contact teams in the league right now, perhaps we see a dip in Darvish’s strikeout total.
In addition, this will be Darvish’s 11th start this season, but just his fourth on the road. In his last road start he punched out just two hitters over 4.0 innings against Colorado. Houston should be able to generate contact against Darvish to keep his strikeout total relatively low this afternoon.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
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