Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 296 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington as the Main Event and Alexandre Pantoja against Brandon Royval for the flyweight title as the Co-Main Event.
Here is my favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +489 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Leon Edwards ML over Colby Covington (-162)
Leon Edwards comes into this fight with an MMA record of 21-3 and he is 13-2 in the UFC. Most notably, Edwards beat Kamaru Usman in back-to-back fights, once to claim the welterweight title and once to defend it. Edwards is averaging 2.80 significant strikes per minute and he has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 2.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. In terms of grappling, Edwards has been solid, averaging 1.26 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 33% and his takedown defense is 69%.
Edwards is a moderate-sized favorite and looks to be the right side. He has won 11 UFC fights in a row, including two against one of the most dominant UFC fighters, Kamaru Usman. Colby Covington however, has been inconsistent, having gone 2-2 in his last four UFC fights. Covington has the edge in striking and grappling, but Edwards simply finds a way to win, therefore backing Edwards to retain his title will be our play.
Alexandre Pantoja ML over Brandon Royval (-192)
Alexandre Pantoja comes into this fight with an MMA record of 26-5. He is 10-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Brandon Moreno by split decision back in July of this year. Pantoja is averaging 4.41 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 3.81 and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same time period.
Pantoja is a heavy favorite in this fight and does look to be the right side. He already beat Brandon Royval by submission back in 2021 and still has the superior striking and grappling. Pantoja is also on a 4-fight win streak, therefore backing him to win here and retain his title will be our play.
Shavkat Rakhmonov Win by Finish over Stephen Thompson (-175)
Shavkat Rakhmonov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-0. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Geoff Neal by submission back in March of this year. Rakhmonov is averaging 4.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. He is absorbing 2.61 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. Rakhmonov also has solid grappling, averaging 1.49 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.5 submission attempts during the same time period.
Rakhmonov is one of the biggest favorites on this entire card, therefore we will be looking at how he might win this fight. Rakhmonov has won all 17 of his career fights by finish, therefore backing the same here will be our lean.
Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett – Fight to go the Distance – No (-190)
Paddy Pimblett is a massive favorite in this fight, making his money line too risky. Instead, we will be looking at this fight to end inside the distance. Pimblett has seen 5 of his last 6 fights end inside the distance, while Ferguson has seen each of his last 3 fights do the same. For this reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
You can also read our UFC 296 Best Bets
