Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 207 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card will feature a heavyweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +509 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 207 predictions for the full 14-fight card.
Let’s get into our parlay for Saturday’s card.
Jeff Molina ML (-180) over Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Jeff Molina comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Daniel Da Silva by KO/TKO back in October of 2021. Molina is averaging 8.72 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 6.12 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling has not been a factor in the UFC so far, and his takedown defense is 37%.
Here we have Molina, who has not lost in the UFC and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, who is 1-3 in his 4 UFC fights. Molina has a very high striking volume which has led to him absorbing a lot of damage. However, he has never been knocked out in his career. Zhumagulov is too inconsistent to trust, especially against a guy like Molina, who can beat you in every way. For that reason, backing Molina will be the play in this fight.
Damon Jackson vs Dan Argueta – Fight to end inside the distance (-200)
Dan Argueta comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-0. He will be making his UFC debut in this fight. Argueta has 6 finishes so far in 8 career fights, and 5 of them have been in the first round. Of his 6 finishes, 2 have been by KO/TKO and 4 are by submission.
Damon Jackson is among the biggest favorite on this card, which likely takes his money line out of contention. He has 18 wins by finish in his career, 3 by KO/TKO and 15 by submission. All 4 of his losses are by finish, so with a high finish rate for both guys, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Movsar Evloev to win by decision over Dan Ige (-200)
Movsar Evloev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-0. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Hakeem Dawodu by unanimous decision back in June of 2021. Evloev is averaging 4.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 2.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. His grappling has been very solid, averaging 4.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 47% and his takedown defense is 71%.
Evloev is a massive favorite in this fight and while he should win rather easily, there is too much juice involved to back his money line. He has won all 5 of his UFC fights by decision and now has 8 decision wins in his career. Ige is 1-3 in his last 4 fights and all of his losses have been by decision. Ige has also never lost by finish. Evloev should be able to control this fight standing up or on the ground convincingly, which will lead to him winning by decision.
Erin Blanchfield vs JJ Aldrich – Fight to end by unanimous decision (-135)
Erin Blanchfield is a huge favorite here, so her money line is not worth the risk. Her last 3 fights have all ended by unanimous decision and 8 of JJ Aldrich’s last 10 decisions have also been unanimous. Blanchfield has been known to dominate her fights, so backing this fight to end by unanimous decision will be the play.
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