Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 207 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a heavyweight fight as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 207 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 207 predictions page for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
Main card best bets
Alexander Volkov vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik – Fight to end inside the distance (-150)
Alexander Volkov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 34-10. He is 8-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Tom Aspinall by submission back in March of this year. Volkov is averaging 4.83 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 3.04 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-3. He is 6-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision back in September of 2021. Rozenstruik is averaging 2.80 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 3.07 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%.
With this being a Heavyweight fight, it is widely known that one punch could end this fight. Rozenstruik has 11 wins by KO/TKO in his career and 1 loss by the same method. Volkov has 25 wins by finish in his career, 22 coming by KO/TKO and 3 by submission. He also has 2 losses by KO/TKO and 3 by submission. While he may not have to worry about getting submitted again, the power from Rozenstruik is still dangerous, therefore backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Preliminary Card Bets
Tony Gravely ML (-130) over Johnny Munoz
Tony Gravely comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-7. He is 4-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Saimon Oliveira by unanimous decision back in January of this year. He is averaging 3.91 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 3.07 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. His grappling has been elite, averaging 6.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 55% and his takedown defense is 50%.
Johnny Munoz bounced back from a debut loss with a recent submission win, but the fact that he has not been able to defend a takedown through 2 UFC fights is a huge concern. Gravely’s grappling looks to give him a huge edge here, therefore backing him to win will be the play.
Rinat Fakhretdinov to win by finish (-110) over Andreas Michailidis
Rinat Fakhretdinov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-1. He will make his UFC debut here. So far in his career, he has 16 wins by finish, 11 coming by KO/TKO and 5 by submission. Also, his only loss came by decision, so his chin should hold up here as well. On top of that, majority of his finishes have come in the first round, so a quick win is also likely.
Andreas Michailidis has lost 5 times by KO/TKO (all his losses), so questioning his chin at this point is fair. Especially against a guy like Fakhretdinov, who although has not fought UFC competition, looks like he could quickly become a title contender. Because Fakhretdinov has such a high finish rate, backing him to win by finish in his debut will be the play.
Make sure you also read our UFC Fight Night 207 four-fight parlay (+509 odds)
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