Caleb Wilfinger
Week 2 of the XFL season continues on Sunday afternoon with a showdown between the Arlington Renegades and Houston Roughnecks. Both of these Texas rivals are 1-0, so they will be looking to pick up their second win of the 2023 campaign. However, we think there’s value on one side in particular in this contest.
Our XFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this Brahmas vs Guardians matchup, so let’s dive in.
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Arlington Renegades vs Houston Roughnecks prediction
Both of these teams are coming off wins in their openers and will look to stay undefeated. Houston was dominant in its opening game, and that has certainly factored into how the sportsbooks are pricing them for this Week 2 contest. Oddsmakers have the Roughnecks as around a 5-point favorite for this one, and that number seems too steep to me. It feels like an overreaction to Houston’s 33-12 win in its opener, in which the Renegades benefited from playing a team that had serious issues at quarterback. On the other side, Arlington is a bit undervalued despite winning its first game of the season as well. Let’s get into our expert’s predictions.
Arlington Renegades vs Houston Roughnecks spread, odds & betting lines
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point Spread: Renegades +5, Roughnecks -5
Total Points Over/Under: 40 points
Money Line Odds: Renegades +175, Roughnecks -210
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San Antonio Brahmas vs Orlando Guardians expert picks
We have 2 XFL picks for this weekend’s game between the Arlington Renegades and Houston Roughnecks
Renegades vs Roughnecks point spread pick: Renegades +5 (-110)
I think that Houston’s dominant victory had more to do with the fact that the opposing team was starting Paxton Lynch at quarterback than anything else. Lynch was awful, and even his backup threw 2 interceptions after replacing him. I don’t actually think Houston did anything that impressive, as the Roughnecks’ own quarterback Brandon Silvers threw 2 interceptions.
They had 81 yards on the ground, so it’s not like they particularly excelled there either. It feels like oddsmakers just saw the final score and manually adjusted this number upward. I was actually more impressed with Arlington in Week 1, as they were able to beat a Vegas team that features an impressive receiving trio of Jeff Badet, Geronimo Allison and Martavis Bryant. The Renegades have a very stout defensive front and they sacked Luis Perez 3 times last week and held Vegas to just 1.7 yards per rush attempt. They should make life tough on Silvers, and their own quarterback Drew Plitt completed 76% of his passes last week.
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Renegades vs Roughnecks Over/Under totals pick: Under 40 (-110)
The under makes sense in this spot. A total of 40 is the highest for any XFL game so far this season, and I was more impressed with what these defenses did last week than the offenses. Houston completely dominated Orlando, holding them to just 12 points (with 6 of those coming in garbage time). They forced the Guardians’ quarterbacks into 3 interceptions while notching 7 sacks. Both defensive fronts had a lot of success last week, so I don’t think either quarterback will have time to throw. Arlington allowed just 25 rushing yards last week, and they picked off Luis Perez multiple times.
If they can slow down a receiving corps that featured 3 ex-NFL wideouts last week, they won’t have too much of a problem with Houston. Sure, the Roughnecks scored 33 points last week, but that number is misleading. They were gift-wrapped most of those points due to Orlando miscues, and Houston quarterback Brandon Silvers averaged only 6.5 yards per attempt.
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