NFL Best Bets

The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) withstood a bunch of injuries to key players this season, including QB Brock Purdy missing 8 games. The Niners had an opportunity at the top seed in the NFC before falling at home to the Seahawks last Saturday, 13-3. San Francisco fell to the 6th seed, getting set to face the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6). There were plenty of ups and downs for the Eagles, including 3 winning streaks of 3 games and a losing skid of 3 games, but they managed to grab the NFC East title for a 2nd straight season.

Philadelphia and San Francisco each finished with 10-7 ATS marks, while the Niners won 7 of 9 games away from Levi’s Stadium. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad beat the Seahawks and Rams on the road in the first 5 weeks, but the other 5 away victories came against teams with losing records. The 49ers posted a 2-4 ATS ledger in the underdog role, which included an overtime triumph over the Rams as a 6.5-point dog in Week 5. The Eagles compiled a 4-4 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field, including outright defeats to the Broncos and Bears. Philadelphia ranked 24th in yards per game (311.2), the 3rd-fewest for any playoff team after ranking 8th in this category during its Super Bowl run last season.

These teams last met in December 2023 when the Niners roughed up the Eagles at the Linc 42-19 as 3.5-point road favorites. Purdy threw 4 TD passes, while now-departed WR Deebo Samuel scored 3 times. In their last playoff matchup in the 2022 NFC Championship, the Eagles shredded the 49ers 31-7, but Purdy was hurt early and San Francisco was forced to run the ball basically the entire game. The Niners are 6-3 in the playoffs under Shanahan since 2021 and have not been bounced in their first game. Let’s back the 49ers with the points against the defending champs.

49ers vs Eagles best bet: San Francisco 49ers +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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Pittsburgh will be predictably cold, well-under freezing, for this Monday night battle. We wouldn’t have it any other way. While the Steelers’ defense hasn’t exactly played up to its standards (see 2 remarkably bad blown coverages last week against Baltimore, resulting in 2 of the easiest touchdowns you’ll ever see), it’s also clear that the talent is there. Cameron Hayward, the defense’s team captain, was stellar in key moments last Sunday night, stifling Derrick Henry runs and in Lamar Jackson’s face for most of the contest. He had 7 tackles. Others made big plays, too. While the Steelers lack consistency in their secondary, their front-seven is as formidable as any in the NFL. After starting the season well below expectations, they’ve climbed to 12th overall in sacks, accruing 3 more last week against the ultra-elusive Jackson. Houston’s offense is below average (23rd in total EPA metrics), which means the Steelers have a chance to keep this game within distance.

On Monday, they’ll have a greater onus to hold up their team, since the Steelers’ offense will be facing arguably the league’s best unit. Despite finishing the season with a perplexing performance against the Colts (they allowed a Riley Leonard-led offense to drop 30 points on 354 yards — what?), Houston’s defense has been their stalwart unit all season. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a comfortable pocket for nearly the entire game in Week 18, an experience that will almost certainly not repeat in this Wild Card battle. The Texans are ferocious at the line of scrimmage, #1 in the NFL in pressures and 8th overall in sack percentage (8.03%). They’re also top-3 in takeaways and 2nd in turnover margin. If the Steelers’ offense, a group that’s already simplistic and limited (16th in EPA per pass, 26th in rush yards per game), wants to succeed, they’ll need to apply maximum creativity and perfect execution. 

The fact that Pittsburgh is led by one of the greatest arms in NFL history gives their offense a shot, but we still don’t feel good about the matchup. Either way, both defenses are in a much better situation. This is our favorite bet of the entire Wild Card Weekend.

Texans vs Steelers best bet: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.

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