NFL Best Bets

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) were on top of the world after rallying from a 14-0 deficit to stun the Kansas City Chiefs, 31-28 in Week 5. However, the Jags have dropped their last two games to the Seahawks and Rams, as Jacksonville heads to Las Vegas following the bye week. The Raiders (2-5) are also off the bye, as they were shut out by the Chiefs, 31-0 in Week 7. Jacksonville traveled to London in Week 7 to face the Rams and were blown out, 35-7. For the exception of rookie WR Travis Hunter scoring his first NFL touchdown, there weren’t many highlights for the Jags. Following consecutive outings of 26 points against San Francisco and 31 points against Kansas City, the Jaguars combined for 19 points in their last two losses.

The Raiders somehow beat the Patriots in Week 1 on the road, but Las Vegas has lost five of its past six games. Pete Carroll’s team has been held to six points in its last two losses, but busted out for 20 points in its second victory of the season against Tennessee in Week 6. QB Geno Smith has struggled this season, throwing for less than 200 yards in four of six games since posting 362 yards in the Week 1 win at New England. These teams met late last season at Allegiant Stadium, as the Raiders held off the Jaguars, 19-14. However, the two starting quarterbacks for that game were Mac Jones for Jacksonville and Aidan O’Connell for Las Vegas. Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence threw for a season-best 296 yards against the Rams, but also posted a season-low completion percentage of 47.9%. The last 4 losses for the Raiders as an underdog came by 31, 34, 17, and 11 points. After Jacksonville has struggled the last 2 games against 2 solid NFC West teams, this is a good spot to back them as a road favorite to beat Las Vegas.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Jaguars -3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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NFL media is all over the Washington Commanders right now. Fresh off the heels of an embarrassing showing on Monday Night Football in which they lost 7-28 at Kansas City, injuries and concerns about their postseason chances are flooding news outlets. Last season, Jayden Daniels was the popular new kid at school. He was flashy, calm, and unflappable even as a rookie in the postseason. But injuries, including multiple to Daniels this season, have started to derail hope.

Last week it got worse. They only managed to gain 260 total yards and 14 first downs, routinely failing to get into scoring range (just 1/2 in the red-zone) and putting their defense on the field far too often (KC led time of possession 34-26). Even more problematic is their new slew of injuries: kicker Matt Gay has back issues, All-Pro lineman Laremy Tunsil left Monday with a hamstring problem, Terry McClaurin returned on Monday but reportedly felt uncertain about his quad issues following the contest, and, at this juncture, we’re still not sure if Daniels will play in Week 9. According to Dan Quinn, their enigmatic starting QB is expected to practice on Wednesday.

In short, this feels like an “all-in” type of game for the Commanders, who could fall to 3-7 if they lose their next 2 battles (vs. SEA, vs. DET). They’ll be the underdogs in each matchup, and they know they need to win now.

In complete contrast to their foe, Seattle is coming off their bye-week with seemingly no issues. Pro Football Focus ranks the Seahawks as the 2nd-best program in the NFL, #2 on offense and #7 on defense. They have no notable injuries, with perennially banged up Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love trending in the right direction. Perhaps most impressive is their passing prowess, a catalyst to a surprising top-5 offense that brings a #1 ranked 9.0 yards per pass into the nation’s capitol on Sunday night. 

This is the time of year where desperate teams play much better. Judging by Quinn’s comments, it looks like Jayden Daniels will be in line to play on Sunday night. Most of Washington’s injured players are questionable and trending in the right direction, and they’re back in DC until December 7th – over a full month of hometown comforts to get right. In the back of our minds, we still know what Daniels and the Commanders are capable of, and now their backs are against the wall. This is simply a spot to take the underdog, regardless of what the analytics suggest.

Seahawks vs Commanders best bet: Washington Commanders +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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To allege that the Cardinals might be able to slow down or limit the Cowboys’ offense, we would need substantial evidence to support such a claim. Unfortunately for Arizona fans, that doesn’t exist. While the visiting team has some respectable marks, like their 6th-place ranking in opponent third-down conversion rate (35.29%) and 7th-place ranking in opponent yards per pass (6.5), most data points suggest that they’re average at best. They are 13th in opponent points (22) and 19th in opponent yards per game (335.7), but even that data is somewhat positively skewed since they’ve faced poor offenses like New Orleans, Carolina, Tennessee, and a tremendously-injured 49ers’ roster in Week 3 (and they still lost). Against superior offenses like Seattle, Indianapolis and Green Bay, the Cardinals permitted 27 points per game.

The Cowboys are statistically better than all of those NFL offenses but the Colts, and they’re far better than every program at home. Putting up 41 points per game at AT&T Stadium is one thing, averaging 441 yards at home is another. The addition of George Pickens has meant a significant uptick in production for Dak Prescott and their air-attack, a receiver that started to shine when CeeDee Lamb had to sit out in 4 contests this season. Now Pickens and Lamb are both healthy and apparently thick as thieves, 2 buddies who make it their goal to punish enemy defenses every week. Together they’ve accrued 1,091 yards and 7 touchdowns. On Monday they’ll battle a defense that’s 27th in opponent pass completion percentage (62.05%) and 25th in opponent pass yards per game (234.9). Without any weather interruptions, there is only one way to look.

Cardinals vs Cowboys prediction: Over 53 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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