Buccaneers vs Bears Player Props: Best Bets and Predictions

The Chicago Bears will be in their second consecutive primetime affair in less than a week when they host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET on NBC, as the Bears hope to win their fourth in a row, while the Bucs aim to keep their momentum after winning three of their last four. 

Ahead of this primetime NFC showdown on NBC, it’s time to get into my favorite player prop bets to make for Buccaneers vs Bears. Let’s get into the picks, and don’t forget our NFL predictions for tips and analysis on every game this season. 

SNF Player Prop: Baker Mayfield (TB) over 14.5 rushing yards (-115)

Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to 16.5.

Following the addition of Jeffrey Simmons, Chicago’s defensive front looked ferocious last week in Seattle. I expect them to continue to look that way, especially with TJ Edwards healthy, causing Baker Mayfield to feel some pressure in the pocket. Mayfield isn’t really a mobile quarterback, but he’s very willing to tuck the ball and run when he sees a crease or when he feels pressure. 

Chicago’s defense has been pretty good against mobile quarterbacks, even before the addition of Simmons, but this number is so low that Mayfield could realistically come close to surpassing this number with one scramble. He had 14 yards last week on four scrambles, with a long rush of seven yards, and he had 59 rushing yards on nine combined carries in the first two weeks of the season, logging rushes of nine and 14 yards in those games. His longest rush prop is set at 9.5 yards, which is a bit juicy for my liking, but if oddsmakers expect him to have at least one rush around eight to 10 rushing yards, then I really like his chances of at least getting to 15 total.

SNF Player Prop: D’Andre Swift (CHI) 4+ receptions (+162)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +150.

Tampa’s defense has been very good this year. The Bucs lead the league in EPA per play allowed this season, while sitting eighth in success rate, and they’re top-four against the run in both metrics – due to their elite 25.3% stuff rate (SumerSports). That ability to stifle the run, in addition to their top-four blitz rate, puts a good bit of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, causing them to look for a quick outlet to dump the ball. That’s where the running backs come in. The Bucs give up the ninth-most receptions to running backs, and there have been multiple backs that have caught at least four passes against this defense, including Chuba Hubbard, Marshawn Lloyd, Aaron Jones, Quinshon Judkins and Chase Brown. That alone makes the juicy price worth the risk of taking 4+ receptions rather than laying -145 for 3+. 

D’Andre Swift is the unquestioned leader out of the Bears backfield, and he’s brought in at least four passes in three of his last four games and in four of Chicago’s eight games. With Kyle Monangai expected to be on the shelf one more week, Swift should be on the field for more than 75% of snaps like he was in Chicago’s last two games. We just need Caleb Williams to look his way about five times, which he’s done in three of his five games when healthy.