Ravens vs Falcons Player Props: Best Bets and Predictions

Sunday Night Football’s birdwatching-event between the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons lost a bit of its lure when Lamar Jackson was ruled out on Friday, but primetime football is primetime football. The Falcons are surging with Michael Penix Jr. under center and the ball in Bijan Robinson’s hands, while the Ravens have won three of four and have a couple big divisional games on deck after this non-conference bout. 

Check out our Ravens vs Falcons preview for picks on side and total in this game; I’m going to discuss the player-prop market instead. Here are my favorite prop picks for Sunday Night Football in Week 5, and don’t forget the rest of our NFL predictions for tips and analysis on every game, every week.

Week 5 SNF Player Prop: Bijan Robinson (ATL) over 86.5 rushing yards (-115)

Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to 91.5. 

On the surface, the Ravens are a top-11 defense against the run, holding opponents to 100 yards per game and fewer than four yards per attempt. However, I would argue those results are anchored down by bad rushing teams in the Saints and Titans. Baltimore also faced Indianapolis and Dallas; Jonathan Taylor and Javontae Williams had almost identical statlines against this defense – rushing for 98 yards and at least one score on 19 attempts for over five yards per carry. 

This number feels way too good to be true, but I have to trust what I’ve seen from Bijan Robinson and the Falcons ever since Michael Penix returned to the field. Now that Atlanta actually has a threatening passing attack, it’s opened up lanes galore for Robinson, who has gone for at least 145 rushing yards and two scores in each of Atlanta’s last two games. Considering those numbers, 87.5 feels extremely generous from oddsmakers, which typically isn’t a good place to be. However, I just can’t pass up this price. This will likely balloon before kickoff, but I like Bijan to have another 100+ yard, primetime performance on Sunday. 

Week 5 SNF Player Prop: Derrick Henry (BAL) over 19.5 rush attempts (-105)

Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -120.

Keeping the run theme going, I’m expecting Baltimore RB Derrick Henry to be heavily involved without Jackson. Lamar missed four games last year, and Henry had at least 20 carries in three of them. The only one in which he didn’t carry the ball at least 20 times was a 34-point loss to the Texans that didn’t involve much offense from the Ravens with Cooper Rush under center – Falcons fans can relate.

Jackson or not, Henry is the epitome of an NFL workhorse, and that may be selling him short. He has carried the ball at least 23 teams in three of four games thus far, and he leads the NFL in carries with 89. I expect that trend to continue Sunday night in primetime.