NFL Parlays

The NFL’s International Series will continue on Sunday with a showdown in Madrid, Spain between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. Washington was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender following last season’s breakout run to the NFC title game, but life comes at you quick in this league. The injury-plagued Commanders are 3-7 and find themselves once again without quarterback Jayden Daniels – this time because of a dislocated elbow. They have lost 5 straight games, including a ridiculous 4 in a row by at least 21 points.

It is true that the Commanders seem cooked, but already this season we have seen cooked teams rise from the dead. Case in point: the Dolphins. Head coach Mike McDaniel (yes, he is still employed!) suddenly has his squad playing hard and actually winning football games. Miami has won 2 of its last 3 outings, scoring at least 30 points in both of those victories over Atlanta and Buffalo. The Fins were especially impressive during last weekend’s upset of the Bills, during which De’Von Achane erupted for 225 yards from scrimmaged and 2 touchdowns. Achane now faces a Washington defense that is #23 against the run (134.4 yards per game allowed) and gives up 4.6 yards per carry (also #23 in the NFL). I can’t put max confidence on this game because the Dolphins are…the Dolphins. But I like them to cover.

Commanders vs Dolphins prediction: Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons will tangle in an NFC South showdown on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. Given the home team’s current woes and its recent struggles in this particular matchup, my Panthers vs Falcons pick is on the visitors to cover. Atlanta is on a 4-game losing streak with setbacks against San Francisco, Miami, New England and Indianapolis. Head coach Raheem Morris’ club is not playing on a short week, but it did have to travel back from Berlin on the heels of an overtime loss to the Colts this past weekend. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has struggled and the Falcons are banged up on the offensive line, too (Chris Lindstrom and Matthew Bergeron are questionable for Sunday), so it’s hard to feel good about any aspect of this offense right now. Even Bijan Robinson has been held in check during this current skid.

This is a rematch of a Week 3 contest in Carolina, where Panthers rolled to a 30-0 victory while improving to 3-1 SU in the last 4 H2H. No, that 30-0 score is not misprint; that’s actually what happened the first time these 2 division rivals went head-to-head this season. Penix threw 2 interceptions and Atlanta’s offense constantly put the defense in terrible situations. Carolina had 4 scoring drives of 30 yards or fewer and only one of its 6 scoring drives trekked across more than half of the football field. Dating back to that result, the Panthers are a solid 5-3 in their last 8 outings. They have a good chance to win this one outright, but getting more than a field goal is too enticing to pass up.

Panthers vs Falcons prediction: Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In a week full of compelling matchups, one of the most interesting games of the week comes in Buffalo, where the Bills are set to host the Buccaneers in a game that could go a long way to decide the fortunes of both teams in terms of playoff seeding in their respective conferences. Both teams are coming off pretty demoralizing losses, with the Bills dropping a game to the Dolphins as significant favorites a week ago, while the Bucs lost at home to a red-hot Patriots team – which marked the second defeat in the last 3 games for Tampa Bay. While this would ordinarily be a spot where I look to back the Bills at home — especially with Buffalo coming off a very poor performance in Miami — I can’t quite get there with this number given the matchup at hand and how the injury report looks for Sean McDermott’s side.

For starters, the Bills offense almost entirely centers around the ground game under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and we just saw Miami be able to successfully bottle that up last week. When the Bills can’t get ahead of the chains early, it becomes a lot harder for Josh Allen and company to consistently convert in obvious passing situations on 3rd and long. The Buccaneers have a solid matchup edge in this game given that they have a top-3 rush defense in the league per success rate, while also sitting at 4th in rush DVOA on defense. Tampa Bay’s weakness is defending the pass, but given that the Bills might be without Dalton Kincaid — who has really become Allen’s top target in recent weeks — Buffalo might not have many answers against a Buccaneers defensive front that likes to blitz and can even get pressure on opposing quarterbacks by only rushing 4 guys. On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense is extremely banged up after suffering a few more losses a week ago. With that in mind, even though Baker Mayfield has come back down to earth in recent weeks, the Bucs should be able to move the ball enough to stay within one possession in this one. Points could be at a premium here, so I’ll take a shot on the ‘dog.

Buccaneers vs Bills prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 available at time of publishing. Playable to Bucs +5.5

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It will be a battle in the NFC North when the Minnesota Vikings host the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon. It is a rematch of Week 1, when the Bears lost a 27-24 heartbreaker. I think they can be competitive once again if not even win outright, so my Bears vs Vikings pick is on the visitors to cover. Chicago has caught fire since beginning the season 0-2, reeling off 6 victories in its past 7 games. First-year head coach Ben Johnson has his offense rolling, producing at least 24 points in all but 2 contests during this 2025 campaign and failing to exceed the 20-point mark just once. Quarterback Caleb Williams is making massive strides; he has accounted for 16 total TDs (13 passing, 3 rushing)

It has been a rough, up-and-down season for the Vikings (4-5). They have not won back-to-back games, but at the same time they have lost 2 in a row only once. Head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team is by no means bad, but it has been unable to sustain any kind of momentum. Quarterbacks JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz have taken turns being injured; Wentz is now out for the year, so McCarthy is back under center. The Michigan product has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) this his first 4 appearances in the NFL. It’s also worth noting that the Vikes don’t have much a home-field advantage these days. They have won just a single game in its own stadium so far this season.

Bears vs Vikings prediction: Chicago Bears +3.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Jacksonville Jaguars were dealt a huge blow this week, as their top pick Travis Hunter is sidelined for the season with a knee injury. He was placed on injured reserve 2 weeks ago, prior to their overtime victory at Las Vegas, but is now done until 2026. Jacksonville suffered one of the biggest meltdowns of the season last Sunday, blowing a 29-10 fourth quarter lead in a 36-29 setback at Houston.

The Jags are short home underdogs against the 7-3 Chargers, who picked up their third straight win in last Sunday’s 25-10 home rout of the Steelers. Los Angeles held Pittsburgh to 221 yards and the lone Steelers’ TD came with less than 3 minutes remaining in the game. The Chargers start Week 11 one game behind the Broncos for first place in the AFC West as L.A. travels to Denver in the season finale.

The Jags started the season 3-0 at home before dropping a 20-12 decision to Seattle one month ago. Jacksonville is 0-3-1 against the spread since beginning the season 4-1 ATS. The Jags have allowed 20 or fewer points in three of four games at EverBank Stadium, while the Chargers have scored 24 or more points in 5 consecutive contests.

This marks the 4th time this season the Chargers are playing in either the Eastern or Central Time Zone. In the first 3 games against the Giants, Dolphins, and Titans, all non-playoff teams, L.A. is 0-3 ATS – which includes an outright loss at New York. On the other side, Jacksonville has blown 2 road games with a 4th quarter lead at Cincinnati and Houston. The Jaguars rank 5th in the NFL in defensive passing yards allowed per game and will now face L.A.’s Justin Herbert, who owns the 2nd-most passing yards heading into Week 11.

The public will be all over the Chargers following their Sunday night domination over the Steelers. This is Jacksonville’s lone home game in a five-week stretch with games at Arizona and Tennessee coming up, so the Jags can get back on track with a win. Let’s grab the points with the home team and back Jacksonville.

Chargers vs Jaguars prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers will collide for the second time this season when these 2 AFC North rivals meet again on Sunday afternoon, this time in Pittsburgh. This is a fantastic spot for Cincinnati. It is coming off a bye, whereas the Pittsburgh just got beat up by the Chargers on Sunday Night Football this past weekend. The Bengals have not lost by more than 5 points since Week 6; I expect that streak to continue. As such, my Bengals vs Steelers pick is for the visitors to cover.

Head coach Zac Taylor’s team just defeated the Steelers 33-31 in the first head-to-head matchup of 2025 on October 16. Joe Flacco lit up the scoreboard in that contest and he remains on an absolute roll, with an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 4 games since being traded from the Browns. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, has been picked off 4 times in the last 4 games – including twice during the Steelers recent 25-10 setback against the Chargers. With some obvious occasional exceptions, rivalry matchups in the AFC North are often hard-nosed and competitive regardless of any discrepancies in talent. I will rarely give more than 3 points in such a situation, and there is no way I’m giving 5.5 in this particular instance.

Bengals vs Steelers prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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The top 2 teams in the NFC West meet in a critical showdown at SoFi Stadium, as both Seattle and Los Angeles own solid 7-2 records. Both teams are 7-2 against the spread this season as well, with each non-cover coming in their losses. The Seahawks are 4-0 on the road and are riding a 10-game winning streak away from Lumen Field since last October. The Rams have won 3 of 4 home contests, although 2 of those victories came by fewer than 7 points against the Colts and Texans.

Seattle ripped apart Arizona last Sunday, 44-22, marking its 3rd win of at least 20 points this season. QB Sam Darnold attempted only 12 passes, but completed 10 of them, pushing him to 31-of-36 in the past 2 games. The Seahawks have been favored in 7 straight games heading into this matchup, as they were last an underdog in their Week 2 victory at Pittsburgh. Seattle split a pair of matchups with Los Angeles last season, losing at home in overtime, while capturing the season finale at SoFi Stadium, 30-25.

The Rams avenged an overtime loss to the 49ers earlier this season by routing San Francisco last Sunday, 42-26 triumph as 6-point road favorites. Los Angeles jumped out to a 21-0 lead as QB Matthew Stafford continued his argument for league MVP with 4 TD passes. In 5 of the last 6 games, Stafford has thrown at least 3 TD passes and has racked up 13 TD tosses in the past 3 victories. The Rams are 3-0 straight-up and against the spread as a favorite of 3 or fewer points this season.

In the last 5 games, the Rams have faced backup quarterbacks 4 times and now take on Darnold, who is 7th in the NFL in passing yards. Seeing how low this line is, let’s grab the points with the Seahawks, who are seeking their 11th consecutive road victory.

Seahawks vs Rams prediction: Seattle Seahawks +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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We have an intriguing showdown on our hands in Week 11 as the Baltimore Ravens are set to take on the Browns in a game that figures to be an old-school AFC North battle in Cleveland. While the Ravens are not exactly back to where they were prior to Lamar Jackson’s injury in September, Baltimore is certainly looking like a playoff team since Jackson’s return to the lineup. And while the dynamic multiple-time MVP missed practice earlier this week with a sore knee, he’s expected to be a full go in a game against a bad Browns team that should be overmatched in this one.

We know that the Ravens have the tools to dominate at the line of scrimmage, and the weather conditions should also favor Baltimore to keep the ball on the ground and grind out scoring drives against a Cleveland defense that has been fading a bit in recent weeks. The forecast is also troubling for Cleveland’s offense on the other side of things, as Dillon Gabriel has already played in high winds this season and looked terrible in the process, so it wouldn’t shock me if Baltimore nabbed a couple of turnovers in a spot where the rookie quarterback can be expected to struggle. Gabriel was also sacked 6 times a week ago and the Ravens defense has been steadily improving in recent weeks, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. All signs point to the Ravens doing enough on offense to build a lead, and I can’t trust a struggling rookie to keep this game within the number. 

Ravens vs Browns prediction: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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Heading into mid-November, not many people thought the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs would be sitting in 3rd place of the AFC West at 5-4. Now, they head to Denver as a road favorite against the division-leading Broncos. Kansas City has won 5 of its last 7 games since an 0-2 start, but looks to bounce back after dropping an AFC Championship rematch at Buffalo, 28-21 prior to its bye week. The Chiefs have failed to cover in their last 2 opportunities as a road favorite, with their last victory in this role coming in Week 3 against the Giants.

The Broncos started the season at 1-2, but have pulled off 7 straight victories. Five of the past 6 wins for Sean Payton’s team have come by 4 points or fewer, capped off by a 10-7 home triumph over the Raiders last Thursday. Four times in this stretch, Denver has trailed in the 4th quarter, including the ridiculous 33-32 comeback win over the Giants when the Broncos were down 19-0.

Denver has posted a 2-0-1 mark against the spread as an underdog this season, and is listed as a home ‘dog for the first time since Week 6 of 2024 against the Chargers. In both opportunities last season, the Broncos lost to L.A. and Pittsburgh when receiving points at home. Since 2020, the Chiefs have been a touchdown favorite or higher in 9 of the past 10 matchups. In last season’s finale, the Broncos blanked the Chiefs, 38-0 as 11.5-point home favorites, as most of Kansas City’s starters sat out.

Although the Broncos are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings with the Chiefs, many of those covers came as a heavy underdog. This pointspread is telling us that Kansas City is the right side here as a road favorite to bounce back from the loss at Buffalo.

Chiefs vs Broncos best bet: Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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It wasn’t a pretty game, but the Eagles survived Lambeau Field and came out the victors in a big time NFC battle this past Monday night. It doesn’t get any easier for the Super Bowl champions as they travel back home to face the Detroit Lions, who looked as explosive and potent ever under Dan Campbell’s direction as their new play-caller. In an absolute thrashing, the Lions gained 546 yards on eight yards per play and dropped 44 points on the Commanders while the 47th president of the United States was in attendance. It was a display of how great Detroit can be when all is in-sync, especially off a loss. Dan Campbell’s incomparable record of 13-0 against the spread following a straight up loss earned another stripe this past Sunday.

Of course, while the Philadelphia offense left much to be desired, their defense looked better than it had all season in Week 10. Against a Packers offense that is as talented as any in the NFL, Philly held Green Bay to just 261 total yards and four yards per pass. New addition Jaelan Phillips contributed four solo tackles and six defensive stops, already becoming a crucial part of their operation. The Eagles also sacked Jordan Love 3 times and left him lost on most plays, scrambling to find an open receiver against the Eagles’ top-tier secondary. Philly also held Josh Jacobs to just 74 yards on the ground.

Returning home to the warm embrace of a raucous Philadelphia crowd, the Eagles have a better spot since the Lions are now on their second straight road game in 13 days. Amazingly, although both have been at the top of the NFC conference for a few years now, the Eagles and Lions haven’t collided since 2022, so there’s not much we can glean from the previous battle. What we can say is that, while Campbell’s new play calling role is interesting and the Lions are always a formidable threat, this Sunday night isn’t the same situation. The Eagles are healthy and look as focused as they ever have, while the Lions’ secondary just got another dose of the injury bug last weekend (Terrion Arnold left with a concussion). We’re siding with the champs in what should be a highly entertaining contest.

Lions vs Eagles prediction: Eagles -2 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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Last Thursday night the Raiders were part of one of the worst NFL games in history, and that’s not a subjective comment. The Broncos and Raiders each earned just 10 first downs. Combined they only gained 408 total yards, averaging just 3.2 (LV) and 3.9 (DEN) yards per play. It was a mess of a game, and frankly there’s not much we can glean from it. Sure, Vegas’ defense played well and held the Broncos to just 10 points and forced two interceptions, but Denver is also known to play down to their competition. Just ask the Jets, Giants, and Texans.

In totality, the Raiders’ defense qualifies as very average. They allow 24.4 points per game (20th) and 320.8 yards per game (15th), which we think will be a huge problem in their Week 11 matchup. It’s especially a problem considering how mediocre the Raiders’ offense is, a group that ranks 26th in EPA per pass and 32nd in EPA per rush.

The Cowboys are the more flawed defense in this matchup (30th in EPA per pass and EPA per rush), but they are a far better offense. Dallas’ last outing was their worst from an offensive standpoint, generating just 333 yards (far from poor but still well below their standards) and 17 points in a loss against the Cardinals. Even with that loss and regression, they remain one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL (378.4 yards per game, 4th). 

Coming off a bye week, the Cowboys’ roster had to endure more than the memory of defeat. Beloved second year defensive end Marshawn Kneeland passed away due to mental health issues just a few days after their Week 9 loss, heavy and unexpected news that Cowboy players and coaches had to contemplate throughout their break. And while it may seem distasteful to weigh the effect of a player’s death as part of a handicap, it is something that objectively occurred and we must consider. In this case, we feel strongly that the Cowboys, who are led by a quarterback whose brother passed away under the same circumstances, come out on absolute fire for their fallen comrade. 

Dallas is a team built by offense, although they made a splash by trading for Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson and star interior lineman Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline. Combined with their poor performance in Week 9, we project to see the best version of the Cowboys and the Raiders struggling to keep up.

Cowboys vs Raiders best bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers will collide for the second time this season when these 2 AFC North rivals meet again on Sunday afternoon, this time in Pittsburgh. This is a fantastic spot for Cincinnati. It is coming off a bye, whereas the Pittsburgh just got beat up by the Chargers on Sunday Night Football this past weekend. The Bengals have not lost by more than 5 points since Week 6; I expect that streak to continue. As such, my Bengals vs Steelers pick is for the visitors to cover.

Head coach Zac Taylor’s team just defeated the Steelers 33-31 in the first head-to-head matchup of 2025 on October 16. Joe Flacco lit up the scoreboard in that contest and he remains on an absolute roll, with an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 4 games since being traded from the Browns. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, has been picked off 4 times in the last 4 games – including twice during the Steelers recent 25-10 setback against the Chargers. With some obvious occasional exceptions, rivalry matchups in the AFC North are often hard-nosed and competitive regardless of any discrepancies in talent. I will rarely give more than 3 points in such a situation, and there is no way I’m giving 5.5 in this particular instance.

Bengals vs Steelers prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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In a week full of compelling matchups, one of the most interesting games of the week comes in Buffalo, where the Bills are set to host the Buccaneers in a game that could go a long way to decide the fortunes of both teams in terms of playoff seeding in their respective conferences. Both teams are coming off pretty demoralizing losses, with the Bills dropping a game to the Dolphins as significant favorites a week ago, while the Bucs lost at home to a red-hot Patriots team – which marked the second defeat in the last 3 games for Tampa Bay. While this would ordinarily be a spot where I look to back the Bills at home — especially with Buffalo coming off a very poor performance in Miami — I can’t quite get there with this number given the matchup at hand and how the injury report looks for Sean McDermott’s side.

For starters, the Bills offense almost entirely centers around the ground game under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and we just saw Miami be able to successfully bottle that up last week. When the Bills can’t get ahead of the chains early, it becomes a lot harder for Josh Allen and company to consistently convert in obvious passing situations on 3rd and long. The Buccaneers have a solid matchup edge in this game given that they have a top-3 rush defense in the league per success rate, while also sitting at 4th in rush DVOA on defense. Tampa Bay’s weakness is defending the pass, but given that the Bills might be without Dalton Kincaid — who has really become Allen’s top target in recent weeks — Buffalo might not have many answers against a Buccaneers defensive front that likes to blitz and can even get pressure on opposing quarterbacks by only rushing 4 guys. On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense is extremely banged up after suffering a few more losses a week ago. With that in mind, even though Baker Mayfield has come back down to earth in recent weeks, the Bucs should be able to move the ball enough to stay within one possession in this one. Points could be at a premium here, so I’ll take a shot on the ‘dog.

Buccaneers vs Bills prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 available at time of publishing. Playable to Bucs +5.5

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Heading into mid-November, not many people thought the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs would be sitting in 3rd place of the AFC West at 5-4. Now, they head to Denver as a road favorite against the division-leading Broncos. Kansas City has won 5 of its last 7 games since an 0-2 start, but looks to bounce back after dropping an AFC Championship rematch at Buffalo, 28-21 prior to its bye week. The Chiefs have failed to cover in their last 2 opportunities as a road favorite, with their last victory in this role coming in Week 3 against the Giants.

The Broncos started the season at 1-2, but have pulled off 7 straight victories. Five of the past 6 wins for Sean Payton’s team have come by 4 points or fewer, capped off by a 10-7 home triumph over the Raiders last Thursday. Four times in this stretch, Denver has trailed in the 4th quarter, including the ridiculous 33-32 comeback win over the Giants when the Broncos were down 19-0.

Denver has posted a 2-0-1 mark against the spread as an underdog this season, and is listed as a home ‘dog for the first time since Week 6 of 2024 against the Chargers. In both opportunities last season, the Broncos lost to L.A. and Pittsburgh when receiving points at home. Since 2020, the Chiefs have been a touchdown favorite or higher in 9 of the past 10 matchups. In last season’s finale, the Broncos blanked the Chiefs, 38-0 as 11.5-point home favorites, as most of Kansas City’s starters sat out.

Although the Broncos are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings with the Chiefs, many of those covers came as a heavy underdog. This pointspread is telling us that Kansas City is the right side here as a road favorite to bounce back from the loss at Buffalo.

Chiefs vs Broncos best bet: Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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