NFL Parlays

It will be a battle in the NFC South when the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers collide in Week 10 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon at Carolina. The Panthers (5-4) have been better than expected so far. Unfortunately for the Saints, they have been just as advertised–terrible. They are 1-8 and their lone win has come in a game in which the other team (the Giants) committed a ridiculous 5 turnovers and forced none. In other words, the Saints should be 0-9. Now they have to face an opponent that just beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field. Yeah, I’m not envisioning this game being competitive at all. My Saints vs Panthers pick is on the home side to win and cover.
 
New Orleans started the season in bad form and has actually gotten worse. First-year head coach Kellen Moore’s crew has not kept a game within 12 points since Week 6 and its 2 most recent losses have come by a combined margin of 57-13. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough got his first NFL start this past weekend Sunday and the Saints’ offense was predictably inept during a 34-10 blowout by the Rams. Shough threw for 176 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Meanwhile, Carolina has won 4 of its last 5 games and its only home loss this season is to a high-powered Buffalo outfit. Give me the Panthers to win big.

Saints vs Panthers best bet: Carolina Panthers -5.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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The battle of purple takes place at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday with a pair of teams off big road wins last week. Baltimore (3-5) has won consecutive games since a 1-5 start, as the Ravens are 2 games back of the Steelers for first place in the AFC North. QB Lamar Jackson threw 4 TDs in his return from a hamstring injury in last Thursday’s 28-6 rout of the Dolphins, while Baltimore’s defense has stepped up recently by allowing 39 points in the past 3 games combined after giving up 44 points in a Week 5 home loss to Houston.

Minnesota (4-4) has won 2 road games against division opponents this season, and comes into this matchup off a huge victory at Detroit as 9.5-point underdogs, 27-24. With the win, the Vikings snapped a 5-game losing streak to the Lions dating back to 2022, as QB J.J. McCarthy tossed a pair of TDs in his first start since Week 2 against Atlanta. Minnesota has started 1-2 at home this season, capped off by a 28-22 defeat to Philadelphia in Week 6 as 2.5-point underdogs.

The Ravens have played 5 of their first 8 games at home, as 2 of the losses came at Buffalo and Kansas City. Baltimore is favored for the 4th time on the road and Sunday will mark the 14th straight game that the Ravens are listed as away chalk. Jackson owns an incredible 24-3 record in his career against NFC opponents, which includes a 34-31 overtime victory over Minnesota in 2021.

Although Minnesota is coming off its best win of the season and returns home, this is a tough spot here against a Baltimore squad starting to put it together with Jackson back. Baltimore’s defense has improved over the last three weeks, while Vikings’ star WR Justin Jefferson is still seeking his first home TD of the season. Let’s go with the Ravens to stay hot and cash against the Vikings.

Ravens vs Vikings prediction: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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We have a fascinating clash in the NFC West on Sunday between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has been a team that I’ve been high on all season long, and that continued into last week, where the NFL world was put on notice after Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense absolutely bludgeoned the Commanders in prime time. The market has adjusted to how Seattle has played in recent weeks, and Mike Macdonald’s defense certainly looks like a unit that is capable of making a deep playoff run come January. However, even though I came into the season with a fairly bullish outlook on Seattle, I’m hesitant to back the Seahawks this week now that they’re being priced like the a top 5 team in the NFL. This number is a little expensive at a full touchdown, and there is reason to believe that the Cardinals can keep this one close.

Arizona has also been a team that I’ve consistently backed of late, and a lot of that was due to the insertion of Jacoby Brissett at the quarterback position. The Cardinals offense is simply better with Brissett at the controls, as Arizona is 11th in EPA per play and 9th in success rate since he took over for Kyler Murray in Week 6. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the injuries that Arizona has been fighting through over the last month. Furthermore, the Arizona defense has been quite solid — including an excellent performance against the Cowboys a week ago — and there is certainly a path for the Cardinals to hold down this Seattle passing offense, especially since we saw them limit the Seahawks to just 23 points back on September 25. I’ll take the points in what should be a close one in Seattle.

Cardinals vs Seahawks prediction: Arizona Cardinals +7 available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.5.

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The NFL’s International Series continues in Week 10 with a Sunday showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts in Berlin, Germany. It has been a tale of 2 different seasons for these 2 teams. Atlanta had relatively high aspirations heading into this season, but it has slumped to a 3-5 record. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has been one of the most surprising teams in the league at 7-2. However, was it only a matter of time before the Colts got exposed? Maybe. They – and quarterback Daniel Jones in particular – appeared to fall back down to Earth with a 27-20 loss at Pittsburgh this past weekend. Jones threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. One poor result does not make the Colts frauds, but perhaps they aren’t quite as good as everyone thought. Whatever the case, a spread of 6.5 points is too much. My Falcons vs Colts pick is for the underdogs to cover.

Atlanta boasts a good enough defense to keep this contest competitive. It ranks #4 in the NFL in total defense (282.5 yards per game allowed) and #1 against the pass (158.1 yards). The Falcons have already come up with 22 sacks, ranking them in the top half of the league in that statistical category. That is a massive improvement for a unit that was second-to-last in sacks (31) during the 2024 campaign. Atlanta sacked Patriots quarterback Drake Maye 6 times during a 1-point loss this past Sunday. Head coach Raheem Morris’ squad has been blown out twice this year — but more often than not, it manages to stay close. With the way the defensive side of the ball is showing out, this matchup should be no exception.

Falcons vs Colts prediction: Atlanta Falcons +6.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It will be a battle in the NFC South when the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers collide in Week 10 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon at Carolina. The Panthers (5-4) have been better than expected so far. Unfortunately for the Saints, they have been just as advertised–terrible. They are 1-8 and their lone win has come in a game in which the other team (the Giants) committed a ridiculous 5 turnovers and forced none. In other words, the Saints should be 0-9. Now they have to face an opponent that just beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field. Yeah, I’m not envisioning this game being competitive at all. My Saints vs Panthers pick is on the home side to win and cover.
 
New Orleans started the season in bad form and has actually gotten worse. First-year head coach Kellen Moore’s crew has not kept a game within 12 points since Week 6 and its 2 most recent losses have come by a combined margin of 57-13. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough got his first NFL start this past weekend Sunday and the Saints’ offense was predictably inept during a 34-10 blowout by the Rams. Shough threw for 176 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Meanwhile, Carolina has won 4 of its last 5 games and its only home loss this season is to a high-powered Buffalo outfit. Give me the Panthers to win big.

Saints vs Panthers best bet: Carolina Panthers -5.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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We’ve got an AFC East clash on our hands on Sunday when the Buffalo Bills head to Miami for a date with the reeling Dolphins. While the Bills have historically dominated this series in recent years, Miami put up quite a fight earlier in the season in Buffalo, and the spot certainly favors the Dolphins this week. After all, the Dolphins are coming off a 3-touchdown loss at the hands of the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, while the Bills just dominated the Chiefs for their biggest win of the season to date.

Despite some obvious questions at the wide receiver position, Buffalo’s offense has been a machine to this point. Josh Allen leads an offense that is 2nd in EPA per play, 1st in EPA margin, 2nd in success rate and inside the top 10 in total touchdowns. However, I could certainly see this group coming out a bit flat following the massive win a week ago, and it certainly helps the Dolphins defense should see the return of Minkah Fitzpatrick and Bradley Chubb – a couple of massive difference makers at their respective positions.

As a team, the Dolphins are inside the top half of the league against the run per DVOA, and given the fact that Buffalo runs the ball at the highest rate among all teams, this could be a lower-possesion game, which puts inherent value on the divisional home underdog in this one. I’ll take the points with Miami.

Bills vs Dolphins prediction: Miami Dolphins +9.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The battle of purple takes place at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday with a pair of teams off big road wins last week. Baltimore (3-5) has won consecutive games since a 1-5 start, as the Ravens are 2 games back of the Steelers for first place in the AFC North. QB Lamar Jackson threw 4 TDs in his return from a hamstring injury in last Thursday’s 28-6 rout of the Dolphins, while Baltimore’s defense has stepped up recently by allowing 39 points in the past 3 games combined after giving up 44 points in a Week 5 home loss to Houston.

Minnesota (4-4) has won 2 road games against division opponents this season, and comes into this matchup off a huge victory at Detroit as 9.5-point underdogs, 27-24. With the win, the Vikings snapped a 5-game losing streak to the Lions dating back to 2022, as QB J.J. McCarthy tossed a pair of TDs in his first start since Week 2 against Atlanta. Minnesota has started 1-2 at home this season, capped off by a 28-22 defeat to Philadelphia in Week 6 as 2.5-point underdogs.

The Ravens have played 5 of their first 8 games at home, as 2 of the losses came at Buffalo and Kansas City. Baltimore is favored for the 4th time on the road and Sunday will mark the 14th straight game that the Ravens are listed as away chalk. Jackson owns an incredible 24-3 record in his career against NFC opponents, which includes a 34-31 overtime victory over Minnesota in 2021.

Although Minnesota is coming off its best win of the season and returns home, this is a tough spot here against a Baltimore squad starting to put it together with Jackson back. Baltimore’s defense has improved over the last three weeks, while Vikings’ star WR Justin Jefferson is still seeking his first home TD of the season. Let’s go with the Ravens to stay hot and cash against the Vikings.

Ravens vs Vikings prediction: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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A pair of division leaders meet for a critical matchup at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. Not many people should be surprised that Tampa Bay sits atop the NFC South at 6-2 and is tied with 3 other teams for the best record in the conference. However, the Patriots were not expected to lead the AFC East halfway through the season at 7-2, ahead of the 5-time defending division champion Buffalo Bills.

New England lost 2 of its first 3 games, falling at home to Las Vegas and Pittsburgh, but the Pats have ripped off 6 consecutive victories – including 3 wins over NFC South opponents. New England held off Atlanta last Sunday 24-23, as the Falcons missed the game-tying extra point with less than 5 minutes remaining. During this hot streak, the Patriots have covered the pointspread 5 times, including in its lone game as an underdog in a 23-20 upset of the Bills in Week 5.

The Buccaneers bounced back from a 24-9 loss at Detroit in Week 7 to beat the Saints in Week 8 23-3 as 4-point road favorites. It was the best defensive effort of the season for Tampa Bay out of the bye week, who won in spite of scoring 1 offensive touchdown. The Bucs are beat up offensively, as future Hall of Fame WR Mike Evans is sidelined for the rest of the season with a broken collarbone suffered in the loss to the Lions.

Patriots QB Drake Maye has made an incredible ascension in his 2nd season, throwing multiple touchdown passes in 7 of the last 8 games. The former North Carolina standout hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game this season, though he has surpassed the 250-yard threshold 6 times. Incredibly, New England is 4-0 on the road in 2025 after going 2-7 away from Gillette Stadium last season. Tampa Bay owns 4 walk-off wins this season and probably isn’t as strong as its 6-2 mark, not to mention, the Bucs are dealing with a bunch of injuries. Let’s back the Patriots here as a road underdog.

Patriots vs Buccaneers best bet: New England Patriots +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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We have a fascinating clash in the NFC West on Sunday between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has been a team that I’ve been high on all season long, and that continued into last week, where the NFL world was put on notice after Sam Darnold and the Seattle offense absolutely bludgeoned the Commanders in prime time. The market has adjusted to how Seattle has played in recent weeks, and Mike Macdonald’s defense certainly looks like a unit that is capable of making a deep playoff run come January. However, even though I came into the season with a fairly bullish outlook on Seattle, I’m hesitant to back the Seahawks this week now that they’re being priced like the a top 5 team in the NFL. This number is a little expensive at a full touchdown, and there is reason to believe that the Cardinals can keep this one close.

Arizona has also been a team that I’ve consistently backed of late, and a lot of that was due to the insertion of Jacoby Brissett at the quarterback position. The Cardinals offense is simply better with Brissett at the controls, as Arizona is 11th in EPA per play and 9th in success rate since he took over for Kyler Murray in Week 6. Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider the injuries that Arizona has been fighting through over the last month. Furthermore, the Arizona defense has been quite solid — including an excellent performance against the Cowboys a week ago — and there is certainly a path for the Cardinals to hold down this Seattle passing offense, especially since we saw them limit the Seahawks to just 23 points back on September 25. I’ll take the points in what should be a close one in Seattle.

Cardinals vs Seahawks prediction: Arizona Cardinals +7 available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.5.

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The last time the Rams and 49ers got together in Los Angeles in Week 5, it turned into one of the wildest games of the season. San Francisco blew an early 14-0 lead, as Los Angeles rallied back to force overtime tied at 23-23. The 49ers kicked the go-ahead field goal on their first drive in OT, followed by stuffing the Rams on 4th and 1 to close out a 26-23 win as 8.5-point underdogs. QB Mac Jones torched the Rams defense for 342 yards and 2 touchdowns to end a 3-game losing streak to Los Angeles dating back to 2023.

The race for first place in the NFC West down the stretch will be a good one, as Seattle and Los Angeles are tied at 6-2 with San Francisco right behind at 6-3. The Rams are riding a 3-game winning streak since that heartbreaking loss to the 49ers, coming off a 34-10 blowout of the hapless Saints last Sunday as a 14.5-point favorite. Los Angeles could have easily won the 2 games it lost, starting in Philadelphia in Week 3 when the Rams squandered a 26-7 lead in a 33-26 defeat.

San Francisco has alternated wins and losses in each of the 7 games, as the 49ers cruised past the Giants last Sunday, 2.5-point road favorites. Kyle Shanahan’s team is 1-4 against the spread this season following a win, while giving up at least 26 points in the last 3 games off a victory. The 49ers have intercepted 1 pass the whole season, while Rams QB Matthew Stafford has thrown only 2 interceptions. The Rams have won and covered in all 3 victories away from SoFi Stadium, while winning each of the last 2 visits to Santa Clara. After coming out flat early against the 49ers in the first matchup as a heavy favorite, this is a good buy-low spot on the Rams as a short road favorite.

Rams vs 49ers prediction: Los Angeles Rams -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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The Detroit Lions suddenly find themselves in a jam-packed race in the NFC North as they prepare to visit the Washington Commanders in Week 10 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Detroit has dropped 2 of its last 3 contests – and following last week’s setback against Minnesota, all 4 teams in the division are separated by just a single game. It goes without saying that the Lions (5-3) will be playing with extreme urgency this weekend. That is part of the reason why my Lions vs Commanders pick is on the visitors to win and cover. It’s not like head coach Dan Campbell’s squad is in crisis mode. Its result against the Vikings in Week 9 is the only loss that can even come close to being considered a “bad” one; Detroit’s other 2 are at Green Bay and at Kansas City.

A date with Washington – even on the road – should be just what the doctor ordered for Detroit. Quarterback Jayden Daniels infamously suffered a dislocated elbow while trailing 38-7 with fewer than 8 minutes remaining in last week’s blowout loss to Seattle. Daniels is obviously out, meaning Marcus Mariota will be back under center for the Commanders. Mariota has plenty of experience and has already started 3 games this year, but he is not anything more than a game manager at this point in his career. When the Commanders are so inferior to the Lions at most positions, you would think the QB would have to do something special to make up for those deficiencies. Mariota, though, is not that guy. If anything, it’s the Lions who have a significant quarterback advantage with Jared Goff. Give me Detroit to win big.

Lions vs Commanders prediction: Detroit Lions -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Chargers pulled out their 2nd straight win and moved to 6-3 on the season, but it didn’t come easy. Playing with nothing to lose, the Titans were at their best on Sunday, finally getting through a full game without a turnover. Their offense still wasn’t enough to do anything significant against Jim Harbaugh’s defense, though, a group that held Tennessee to just 20 first downs and 206 yards. The visiting Chargers controlled most of the matchup, behind another Herculean effort by Justin Herbert (250 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, 3 total touchdowns). Their rushing attack, which was led by 2nd-year back Kimani Vidal, was their biggest letdown of the week, netting only 74 yards on 21 carries between Vidal and Jaret Patterson.

Despite a win, the biggest news from Chargers’ camp was Joe Alt’s season ending ankle injury. The left tackle, who was rated higher than any other player at his position this season, was a massive part of the Bolts’ offense. Without him, the Chargers obviously regressed in weeks prior, starting with a loss at the Giants, a loss versus Washington, a closely-fought game against the Dolphins and another loss versus the Colts. In every contest, their offense was more challenged without the 6’8” Alt. Upon his return, the Chargers’ offense instantly looked explosive, affording Herbert more time on every play, until he went down on Sunday. Making matters worse, right tackle Bobby Hart, who’s played well as the Chargers’ front continued to incur injuries, went down with an ankle and groin injury this past Sunday. The Chargers’ injury issues should not be understated, nor would we expect the same production moving forward, although they did trade for Trevor Penning, a veteran left tackle from New Orleans. It remains to be seen how formidable he’ll be in Alt’s absence.

The Steelers are experiencing no such issues. In their best defensive performance of the season, Pittsburgh caused havoc in Week 9 in all the ways we’ve got accustomed to seeing from the star-studded group. As a unit, they had 13 passes deflected, 5 sacks, 5 QB hits, 6 tackles for a loss, and forced 6 turnovers. It was a sterling reminder of what the Steelers’ defense could be every week if they played up to their potential. Their offense, which continues to defy expectations (25.3 points per game, 12th) despite a shallow roster surrounding Aaron Rodgers, did enough in Week 9, although it was their defense that manufactured the win.

Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense has its struggles, a group that’s 28th in yards per carry (3.8) and 19th in yards per pass (7.0), but we think they can win plenty on defense. Mike Tomlin is an outrageous 67-40-4 (62%) ATS as an underdog, and we like him to get another this Sunday night.

Steelers vs Chargers prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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