HomeNFLNFL PredictionsAtlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15 2025

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 15 2025 for Tomorrow, 12/11/25

Updated: 5:47 AM ET Dec 10, 2025

Raymond James StadiumAmazon Prime Video

Falcons

8:15 PM ETTomorrow

Buccaneers

LLWLL	Last 5	LLLWL
4-9	Record	7-6
5-7-1	ATS Record	5-8-0
6-7	O/U Record	7-6

Falcons vs Buccaneers Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

TB Buccaneers -4.0(-110)

Reasoning

Once the clear leaders of the NFC South, the Falcons and Bucs are both reeling after another bad performance. In Atlanta’s case it’s par for the course, a program lost at this point of the season. Coach Raheem Morris seems to have no true influence over his roster, either. Over the past eight weeks their only win was against the Saints, a fellow NFC South bottom feeder, and even in that matchup they were out-gained 21-13 in first downs. Kirk Cousins looked especially bad in Week 14, completing just 15-30 for 162 yards and two interceptions. The defense continues to regress as well, allowing the Seahawks to put up 31 points in the second half last Sunday. In short, there’s no good reason to trust Atlanta right now, even if the team they’re facing next is going through their own share of problems.

The Bucs dominated survivor entries and teaser-legs all over the country in Week 14 in what seemed to be an auto-play for many bettors. That didn’t go so well. The Saints showed up to compete, putting up 17 points en-route to victory in southern Florida. Baker Mayfield played as poorly as Kirk Cousins last Sunday, going 14-30 for 122 yards (4.1 yards per pass), one touchdown and one interception. The Bucs’ defense, which now ranks 14th in total EPA, eventually capitulated, but their offense is far more disappointing. Decimated by injuries, the Bucs’ offense sunk to 22nd in total EPA metrics, a sad measure considering they looked like one of the most explosive offenses early in the season.

The good news for Tampa is that they’re getting healthier. Their best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, sat out last Sunday but is trending towards suiting up on Thursday. Even better, their star wide-receiver, Mike Evans, has logged four straight practices and looks to return after missing seven weeks of action. Even without those two stalwarts, the Bucs need this win to further cement their lead in the NFC South. The Falcons are showing no signs of progression, nor do they have much to play for.

Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF prediction: Bucs -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 44.5(-110)

Reasoning

The Bucs’ offense isn’t what it used to be at the start of the season but that doesn’t mean it can’t improve again. Thursday is also a good spot for positive regression. Atlanta’s defense has been spiraling for quite some time. Since Week 8 they’ve allowed 28 points per game. Four out of those seven opponents hit or eclipsed 30 points. Mike Evans is trending towards playing on Thursday, but even if he doesn’t the Falcons are officially 26th in defensive EPA per rush, permitting 4.5 yards per carry (24th). Bucky Irving has played well but has yet to make a big splash since his return in Week 13. We think this is the ideal opportunity. Baker will look to correct his transgressions from last week, too (4.4 yards per play). We expect a much better showing from the whole offense.

On the other side, the Falcons’ defense looked lost in Week 14 and has looked lost for weeks, but the Falcons’ offense still shows flashes of its talent here and there. Kirk Cousins had one of his worst outings as a professional quarterback in Week 14. It’s likely this could be his final stretch of games as a starter in the league. If I’m Kirk and I’m battling a Bucs’ defense that hasn’t played well (Tampa is 20th in defensive EPA per pass), I’m excited to take advantage of this matchup. And it’s not like Atlanta hasn’t done well against the Bucs before. Back in Week 1, they totaled 358 yards and 23 first downs on Todd Bowles’ defense, a battle they should have won.

Both offenses are due for a better day, particularly the Bucs. On a short week and both rosters battered at this point of the season, we like both offenses to rule the day.

Falcons vs Bucs pick: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

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