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Hello Millions
Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 18 2026 for Sunday, 01/04/26

Acrisure StadiumNBC
Ravens
8-8
Ravens
Yesterday
Steelers
9-7
Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers

Ravens vs Steelers Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet
PIT Steelers +3.5(-115)

It seems like every year Baltimore and Pittsburgh battle to survive. The 2 perennial top teams in the AFC North last year met in the wild-card round of the postseason — a victory for the Ravens. The year before it was in Week 18 — a Steelers victory that secured their playoff berth, a scenario that also played out in 2021. Needless to say, few rivalries hit as hard as this one — both literally and figuratively. 

The Steelers are coming off a humbling loss at Cleveland. On one hand, that feels like a pitiful stumble considering the Browns’ record. But any fan of the NFL knows that games at Cleveland, especially in December, are always weird. The weather and muck of the “Dawg Pound” can throw off even the most buttoned-up outfits. Unsurprisingly, the Steelers’ production in Week 17 wasn’t stellar — just 6 points and 291 total yards on 4.5 yards per play. Their defense played well, permitting just 262 yards and 11 first downs. However, just a single Browns touchdown was enough to secure the home team’s victory. 

But as many bettors know, this is where head coach Mike Tomlin — who’s had 19 consecutive winning seasons as the Steelers’ head coach — is at his best. In his career he is 23-9-3 as a home underdog, a hit rate of 66% against the spread. The Steelers will continue to play without DK Metcalf, who was suspended for 2 games for a foolish incident with a fan in Week 16. That’s obviously a considerable problem. Their offense suffered without his presence in Week 17. On the bright side, Tomlin is reportedly “optimistic” that TJ Watt, their all-world defender, will return for this huge game. 

In Week 17 the Ravens looked like the program the market has loved all season. The absence of Lamar Jackson didn’t matter, as head coach John Harbaugh apparently responded to screams from the media and fans alike that Derrick Henry needs the ball more. “King Henry” took advantage, rushing for a whopping 216 yards and 4 touchdowns on 36 carries. As a team the Ravens ran for 307, more than enough to out-pace the Jordan Love-less Packers at Lambeau Field.

The big question mark is Jackson. Rumors surrounding Charm City discuss a break in the bond between coach Harbaugh and the dynamic quarterback. No one knows how valid that is. More legitimate is a nagging back injury that kept the All-Pro out of last week’s contest. The reality is that the former MVP just hasn’t looked like himself, with various ailments affecting his performance off and on all season. Pittsburgh knows the Ravens will want a repeat performance from last Sunday, hammering the ball with Henry toward a playoff spot — which we think will put a greater onus on Jackson to lead the offense. That’s not a recipe we like, particularly with Tomlin’s prowess in these situations. We see a Steelers’ victory as very likely, thus we love getting them above a 3. The market just won’t give up on Baltimore.

Ravens vs Steelers prediction: Steelers +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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Chris R. Farley

Ravens vs Steelers Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick
Under 41.0(-115)

In the spread analysis we mentioned that the Steelers and Ravens have clashed in either playoff-clinching or postseason scenarios in 3 of the past 4 seasons. In our muscle memory, we knew they were always low-score affairs. That proved accurate. In those 3 games the totals amounted to 42, 27 and 29 points (and the latter even went into overtime). The opening total for the latest edition of this storied rivalry came out at 43 and was quickly bet down, which vaulted it below a few key numbers. In general, 37-41 is considered the standard of “lower-scoring games” — while anything above 44 gets into “higher-scoring games” territory. The movement was hardly surprising.

Derrick Henry exploded in Week 17 but that hasn’t always been the norm for him or the Ravens’ ground game this season. Still, following a brilliant Week 17, they now find themselves back as the #1 EPA per rush program in the NFL. While they’re always a threat, the Steelers are very familiar with their pedigree in this regard. In their first matchup, a Week 14 game that Pittsburgh won 27-22, Baltimore still ran for more than 200 yards. A repeat performance might prove difficult against a Steelers defense that tends to step up in big moments — and they are not exactly chumps against the run, either (12th in opponent rush yards per game at 111.6). 

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ overly simplistic offense relies far too often on DK Metcalf to catalyze production. Their #1 wideout, still suspended, will be missing in this contest. He was solely responsible for 28% (850 receiving yards) of the Steelers’ air attack (3,028 passing yards), a major chunk of production. Like Baltimore, Pittsburgh will look to rely on an above-average ground game that has proven efficient this season. The emergence of Kenneth Gainwell (527 yards), who has seen more carries, along with Jaylen Warren (892 yards) has the home team as the ninth-best rushing offense according to advanced EPA metrics. On both sides, milking the clock will likely be their team’s approach — which will only limit the total number of points. As if we needed any more ammunition, Western Pennsylvania is set to be a crisp 24 degrees at kickoff and approaching the teens as the night goes on. Hard-hitting, downhill football is the only scene we can envision for this war. That means fewer points, as usual.

Ravens vs Steelers pick: Under 41 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

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Chris R. Farley
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Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
@FarleyBets
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Top Trends
Point Spread

The Steelers have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 matchups against AFC North teams.

Money Line

The Steelers won 27-22 when they met the Ravens in Baltimore last month.

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