Bills vs Broncos Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Divisional Round for Saturday, 01/17/26
Bills vs Broncos Guest Expert Predictions
Many pontificators in the betting world thought the Jaguars would successfully move on to the Divisional Round, anchored by Liam Coen and their new-look defense. That never came to be. Instead, Buffalo secured their first road playoff win since 1992, led by more heroic efforts from Josh Allen. The esteemed Bills quarterback seemed to injure his knee and throwing hand on the same drive early in the game, but that didn’t stop him from accruing 306 total yards and 3 total touchdowns. When it mattered, Trevor Lawrence threw 2 key interceptions, one on the final drive, to seal the Buffalo victory.
As usual, the Allen-led offense was more than effective, answering the call whenever needed. On the other hand, the Bills’ defense played good, not great, only a few times making stops when it mattered. Not ideal was that Jacksonville went 5-9 on 3rd downs and 3-4 in the red zone. In truth, if it wasn’t for Lawrence’s 2 interceptions, the final result might’ve been different. As usual, the onus of Buffalo’s future will remain with Allen and his ability, since we suspect their defense will continue to allow plenty of production from opponents. The Bills will face a much greater challenge this coming Saturday, up in elevation in Denver against a Broncos squad that knows how to win and will be coming off extended rest.
Denver is statistically the opposite of Buffalo. They can rely on their defense, a group that’s top-5 in nearly every metric (including a 1st-place ranking in opponent yards per game, 278.2), but their offense seems to only come alive when they need it. Bo Nix and his colleagues mostly present average to below average marks, particularly in yards per pass, where they generate just 6.4 (29th). This is true even though they own one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, permitting a sack on just 3.62% of plays (2nd overall). The good news for Denver is that they are good under pressure, averaging 7.7 points in the 4th quarter and successfully completing 5 4th-quarter comebacks this season. Of course, Josh Allen and the Bills are also pretty good in this category, too, averaging 9.2 4th-quarter points and earning a few 4th-quarter comebacks themselves.
We’re pretty certain this game will come down to the final drive. Since one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks will be facing one of the NFL’s best defenses, that makes this matchup all the more difficult to predict. At face value, the more rested team at home is generally the side to go with, especially considering their prowess on defense. Personally, we’d love to see Buffalo win, but the intangibles favor Denver.
Bills vs Broncos prediction: Broncos +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The total for this big AFC matchup is in no man’s land, which is not surprising. On the one hand, Denver’s offense produces a healthy 23.6 points per game (14th). If they hope to win, they will likely need to produce more in this battle, which is part of the reason why this total sits at double that amount. Bo Nix is the definition of a momentum-based quarterback, a thrower who can get hot and tends to play his best when under pressure, but it’s far from consistent. It doesn’t help that the Broncos had 313 yards lost to drops this season, which is the 5th-highest in the NFL, and their rushing attack has really fallen off since JK Dobbins went down with an injury in Week 10. Since losing Dobbins, their EPA per rush metrics have dropped from 14th to 25th. Run defense is Buffalo’s biggest weakness, a group that permits 137.2 rush yards per game (28th), so we’re not sure who will have the advantage in that exchange. Contrarily, we are certain that Buffalo has the advantage against the pass, since they rank as a top-5 group in most metrics, including opponent completion percentage, yards per pass, yards per game and interceptions. They can capitalize on Denver’s shortcomings.
This total will likely be decided when Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense is on the field. Denver’s defense, which leads the NFL in sacks (10.29% of plays), will need to contend with one of the league’s best running quarterbacks. Allen needs no introduction, nor do his miraculous playmaking abilities, but it’s important to know how consistent Buffalo’s offense has been this season. Across the board, they are a top-5 group in every category, boasting the 2nd-best marks in yards per rush (4.9), the 3rd-best mark in yards per pass (8.0) and averaging a glorious 28.2 points per game (4th). Of course, Denver’s defense can say the same thing, top-4 or better in all the same defensive metrics.
The Rocky Mountains surrounding the valley that is the city of Denver will look wintry on Saturday, but playing conditions will be rather ideal, 44° and sunny with very little wind. But even on a nice, January Colorado day, defenses usually control these types of battles, and we could see both teams’ offenses coming more alive in the 2nd half. Consider a 2nd-half over if this game starts slow, but we see fewer points overall.
Bills vs Broncos pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.
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