HomeNFLNFL PredictionsBills vs Broncos Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Divisional Round

Bills vs Broncos Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Divisional Round for Tomorrow, 01/17/26

Updated: 12:49 PM ET Jan 16, 2026

Empower Field at Mile HighCBS

Bills

4:30 PM ETTomorrow

Broncos

WWLWW	Last 5	WWLWW
13-5	Record	14-3
9-9-0	ATS Record	7-10-0
9-9	O/U Record	7-10

Bills vs Broncos Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

DEN Broncos +1.0(-110)

Reasoning

Many pontificators in the betting world thought the Jaguars would successfully move on to the Divisional Round, anchored by Liam Coen and their new-look defense. That never came to be. Instead, Buffalo secured their first road playoff win since 1992, led by more heroic efforts from Josh Allen. The esteemed Bills quarterback seemed to injure his knee and throwing hand on the same drive early in the game, but that didn’t stop him from accruing 306 total yards and 3 total touchdowns. When it mattered, Trevor Lawrence threw 2 key interceptions, one on the final drive, to seal the Buffalo victory.

As usual, the Allen-led offense was more than effective, answering the call whenever needed. On the other hand, the Bills’ defense played good, not great, only a few times making stops when it mattered. Not ideal was that Jacksonville went 5-9 on 3rd downs and 3-4 in the red zone. In truth, if it wasn’t for Lawrence’s 2 interceptions, the final result might’ve been different. As usual, the onus of Buffalo’s future will remain with Allen and his ability, since we suspect their defense will continue to allow plenty of production from opponents. The Bills will face a much greater challenge this coming Saturday, up in elevation in Denver against a Broncos squad that knows how to win and will be coming off extended rest.

Denver is statistically the opposite of Buffalo. They can rely on their defense, a group that’s top-5 in nearly every metric (including a 1st-place ranking in opponent yards per game, 278.2), but their offense seems to only come alive when they need it. Bo Nix and his colleagues mostly present average to below average marks, particularly in yards per pass, where they generate just 6.4 (29th). This is true even though they own one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, permitting a sack on just 3.62% of plays (2nd overall). The good news for Denver is that they are good under pressure, averaging 7.7 points in the 4th quarter and successfully completing 5 4th-quarter comebacks this season. Of course, Josh Allen and the Bills are also pretty good in this category, too, averaging 9.2 4th-quarter points and earning a few 4th-quarter comebacks themselves.

We’re pretty certain this game will come down to the final drive. Since one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks will be facing one of the NFL’s best defenses, that makes this matchup all the more difficult to predict. At face value, the more rested team at home is generally the side to go with, especially considering their prowess on defense. Personally, we’d love to see Buffalo win, but the intangibles favor Denver.

Bills vs Broncos prediction: Broncos +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

J. Cook (BUF) - Over 13.5 rec yds(-115)

Reasoning

James Cook’s career year led to his first All-Pro selection and one of the best skill players in the NFL. He helped compensate for one of the league’s worst wide receiver corps in the league. Along with leading the league in rushing, Cook registered 40 targets through the air for 291 yards – Eclipsing 14 receiving yards in 7 of 16 games, not counting the Week 18 game versus the Jets, where he played 2 snaps.

Heading into their game against the Broncos, Cook is likely to struggle on the ground, though he did rush for 120 yards last season against them. But this is a different Broncos defense. They are arguably the best run defense in the NFL, allowing 3.9 yards per carry – tied for 2nd best in football. Much like last week versus the Jaguars, I expect a heavy dose of Josh Allen’s arm to be the focal point. His passing attempt line is set at 30.5 in a potential negative game script. With WR Tyrell Shavers tearing his ACL last week and continued question marks on the outside, look for Allen to look Cook’s way through the air, especially if he struggles on the ground.

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Game Totals Pick

Under 46.5(-110)

Reasoning

The total for this big AFC matchup is in no man’s land, which is not surprising. On the one hand, Denver’s offense produces a healthy 23.6 points per game (14th). If they hope to win, they will likely need to produce more in this battle, which is part of the reason why this total sits at double that amount. Bo Nix is the definition of a momentum-based quarterback, a thrower who can get hot and tends to play his best when under pressure, but it’s far from consistent. It doesn’t help that the Broncos had 313 yards lost to drops this season, which is the 5th-highest in the NFL, and their rushing attack has really fallen off since JK Dobbins went down with an injury in Week 10. Since losing Dobbins, their EPA per rush metrics have dropped from 14th to 25th. Run defense is Buffalo’s biggest weakness, a group that permits 137.2 rush yards per game (28th), so we’re not sure who will have the advantage in that exchange. Contrarily, we are certain that Buffalo has the advantage against the pass, since they rank as a top-5 group in most metrics, including opponent completion percentage, yards per pass, yards per game and interceptions. They can capitalize on Denver’s shortcomings.

This total will likely be decided when Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense is on the field. Denver’s defense, which leads the NFL in sacks (10.29% of plays), will need to contend with one of the league’s best running quarterbacks. Allen needs no introduction, nor do his miraculous playmaking abilities, but it’s important to know how consistent Buffalo’s offense has been this season. Across the board, they are a top-5 group in every category, boasting the 2nd-best marks in yards per rush (4.9), the 3rd-best mark in yards per pass (8.0) and averaging a glorious 28.2 points per game (4th). Of course, Denver’s defense can say the same thing, top-4 or better in all the same defensive metrics.

The Rocky Mountains surrounding the valley that is the city of Denver will look wintry on Saturday, but playing conditions will be rather ideal, 44° and sunny with very little wind. But even on a nice, January Colorado day, defenses usually control these types of battles, and we could see both teams’ offenses coming more alive in the 2nd half. Consider a 2nd-half over if this game starts slow, but we see fewer points overall.

Bills vs Broncos pick: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

J. Allen (BUF) to score a TD(-105)

Reasoning

Over the last couple of postseasons, I’ve consistently targeted Josh Allen to find the end zone in every Bills playoff game, and those tickets have cashed repeatedly. Much like we saw a week ago, Buffalo’s path to success in this game will likely depend on the Wyoming’s product ability to use his legs to the Bills’ advantage. We can expect that to continue this week against a Broncos defense that is excellent, but did not exactly excel in the one game they played against a solid quarterback in recent months (Trevor Lawrence).

A week ago, I emphasized Allen’s ability to make things happen with his legs in a variety of situations — particularly on late downs. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady turned to Allen time and again against the stout Jacksonville defense on 3rd and 4th downs, and his ability to pick up tough yards around the goal line is second-to-none among all quarterbacks in this league. Allen has found the end zone with his legs in 5 of the Bills last 7 playoff games, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the MVP gets multiple opportunities in the red zone in this one. This prop still feels a bit mispriced at the current number, so let’s take advantage and back Allen to find the end zone once again.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

B. Nix (DEN) to score a TD(+320)

Reasoning

Under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills defense has focused on limiting explosive plays and allowing opponents to matriculate the ball down the field. Buffalo’s pass defense has improved over the course of the year, and the Bills have done a solid job of not allowing big plays to opposing wideouts. That should continue into this game against a Denver passing offense that hasn’t done much against heavy 2-high safety looks, which is what Bo Nix should see against this McDermott defense. However, the Bills run defense is one that has struggled all season long, and there should be rush lanes for Nix around the goal line because of it. The Oregon product has tallied 5 rushing touchdowns on the season, so I’ll take a stab on Nix at this price.

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Money Line

BUF Bills Win

Game Totals

Under 46.5

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

J. Allen (BUF) to score a TD

Reasoning

Bills vs Broncos SGP pick: Buffalo Bills ML over Denver Broncos (-108)

I don’t have a whole lot of faith in either team, but I have even less faith in Denver – especially in a playoff situation. There is no way to sugarcoat it; I think the Broncos are frauds. That’s not to say they aren’t a good football team; they just aren’t #1 seed caliber. Their 14-3 record features a whopping 11 one-possession wins. That includes by 2 points over the Jets at a neutral site, by 1 over the Giants at home, by 3 over Las Vegas at home, by 3 over Kansas City at home, by 1 in overtime against Washington, by 7 at Las Vegas and by 7 at Kansas City without Patrick Mahomes. You never have to apologize for winning in the NFL, but those are some rather alarming results.

Although this is not the best Bills team we have seen in recent seasons, this is a group that knows how to get the job done on the big stage. We just saw it again when Allen and company went into Jacksonville and took down a red-hot Jaguars squad. Denver may be the more well-rounded of the 2, but I’ll take Allen over Bo Nix in a head-to-head playoff showdown any day of the week.

Bills vs Broncos SGP pick: Under 46.5 (-110)

The under correlates nicely with Buffalo on the money line, because I don’t think the visitors can score enough on Denver’s defense to win some kind of high-octane shootout. The Broncos’ defense is simply too good for those types of shenanigans. Just as Allen has to play well to give the Bills a chance, so too does their defense. They are facing a Denver offense that has never been great but has become even worse since running back JK Dobbins was lost for the season in Week 10. Since Dobbins went down, the Broncos’ EPA per rush metrics plunged from 14th to 25th in the NFL

Asking Nix, a 2nd-year quarterback, to bear the burden in a playoff game against such an experienced opponent does not seem like an ideal scenario. On the other side of the ball, Allen has not had a ton of weapons to work with throughout this 2025 campaign, and now Gabe Davis is gone with a torn ACL – which he sustained last weekend against the Jaguars. I’m going with a relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday.

Bills vs Broncos parlay pick: Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-120)

Allen generally takes matters into his own hands when the stakes are highest. That should especially be the case now that Davis is sidelined and the receiver corps is even worse than it already was prior to last weekend. Allen rushed for 2 touchdowns in Buffalo’s victory at Jacksonville, giving him 9 in 14 lifetime postseason appearances. In his last 6 playoff games dating back to the 2023 campaign, the Wyoming product has found the end zone 7 times. It’s also worth noting that Allen scored 14 touchdowns in 16 regular-season outings (not including Week 18 against the Jets in which he took just 1 snap to extend his consecutive games played streak). Even against a vaunted Denver defense, there is no reason why Allen can’t score.

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Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Receiving Yards Pick

J. Cook (BUF) - Over 13.5 rec yds(-115)

Reasoning

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

J. Allen (BUF) to score a TD(-105)

Reasoning

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

B. Nix (DEN) to score a TD(+320)

Reasoning

Featured In

SGP

4:30 PM ETTomorrow

Bills vs Broncos Same Game Parlay

Parlay Pick

4:30 PM ETTomorrow

Saturday's NFL Divisional Round parlay

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Game Totals

Only 7 of Denver's 17 regular-season games went over the total points line.

Money Line

The Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 games.

Point Spread

The Broncos went only 7-9-1 against the spread in the regular season.

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