Bills vs Jaguars Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round for Sunday, 01/11/26

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have been fantastic in the 2nd half of the season, there is no denying that. New coach Liam Coen clearly has edges as an NFL head coach, both culturally and from a play-calling perspective, and it’s changed the franchise for the better. Since the start of November, their only loss was at the Texans, a barnburner of a contest where they were stymied by an all-world Houston defense, but they have been relatively flawless since. 

Lawrence is top-6 or better in many passing categories, including yards (4,006) and touchdowns (29). Through the air and on the ground, they’re consistent and productive, ranked 12th in EPA metrics. Their defense showed perhaps the most surprising improvement, up to 3rd overall in EPA metrics, including top-3 marks against opposing quarterbacks. 

The difference in this game is experience. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have been a QB-coach tandem in 13 playoff games (this is Coen’s first playoff game as a head coach, Lawrence is 1-2 in his postseason career), and Allen’s performances have been stellar (25 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions). Entering the Wild Card round and after an embattled, clumsy season, Buffalo is as healthy as it’s been all year. And offensively, they’re as buttoned up as they’ve always been, top-3 overall with top-4 rankings in EPA per pass and EPA per run. 

Defensively, it’s a mixed bag. Buffalo thrives against opposing quarterbacks, ranked 7th in defensive EPA per pass, but virtually anyone can run on them. Their 5.1 opponent yards per carry is bottom-3 in the league. Luckily for the Bills, Jacksonville isn’t exceptional on the ground, ranked 27th in yards per carry (4.0) and 20th in yards per game (115.1). 

Home teams typically have a big advantage, but matchup-wise, we see a strong case to be made for the visitors. Allen is one of the most talented players in the history of the NFL, and as a franchise, no team has more experience or more motivation to get further in the postseason than Buffalo. We expect this to be a tightly fought game and a teaser on Jacksonville is a fine option, but there’s only one way we can look in terms of a winner.

Bills vs Jaguars prediction: Bills ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.5.

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