HomeNFLNFL PredictionsBills vs Jaguars Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round

Bills vs Jaguars Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round for Tomorrow, 01/11/26

Updated: 12:48 PM ET Jan 09, 2026

EverBank StadiumCBS

Bills

1:00 PM ETTomorrow

Jaguars

WWWLW	Last 5	WWWWW
12-5	Record	13-4
8-9-0	ATS Record	12-5-0
9-8	O/U Record	10-7

Vote on who will win!

Bills vs Jaguars Pickswise Expert Predictions

Money Line Pick

BUF Bills Win(-115)

Reasoning

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have been fantastic in the 2nd half of the season, there is no denying that. New coach Liam Coen clearly has edges as an NFL head coach, both culturally and from a play-calling perspective, and it’s changed the franchise for the better. Since the start of November, their only loss was at the Texans, a barnburner of a contest where they were stymied by an all-world Houston defense, but they have been relatively flawless since.

Lawrence is top-6 or better in many passing categories, including yards (4,006) and touchdowns (29). Through the air and on the ground, they’re consistent and productive, ranked 12th in EPA metrics. Their defense showed perhaps the most surprising improvement, up to 3rd overall in EPA metrics, including top-3 marks against opposing quarterbacks.

The difference in this game is experience. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have been a QB-coach tandem in 13 playoff games (this is Coen’s first playoff game as a head coach, Lawrence is 1-2 in his postseason career), and Allen’s performances have been stellar (25 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions). Entering the Wild Card round and after an embattled, clumsy season, Buffalo is as healthy as it’s been all year. And offensively, they’re as buttoned up as they’ve always been, top-3 overall with top-4 rankings in EPA per pass and EPA per run.

Defensively, it’s a mixed bag. Buffalo thrives against opposing quarterbacks, ranked 7th in defensive EPA per pass, but virtually anyone can run on them. Their 5.1 opponent yards per carry is bottom-3 in the league. Luckily for the Bills, Jacksonville isn’t exceptional on the ground, ranked 27th in yards per carry (4.0) and 20th in yards per game (115.1).

Home teams typically have a big advantage, but matchup-wise, we see a strong case to be made for the visitors. Allen is one of the most talented players in the history of the NFL, and as a franchise, no team has more experience or more motivation to get further in the postseason than Buffalo. We expect this to be a tightly fought game and a teaser on Jacksonville is a fine option, but there’s only one way we can look in terms of a winner.

Bills vs Jaguars prediction: Bills ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.5.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 52.5(-110)

Reasoning

One interesting aspect of this game is the weather. Jacksonville is forecasted to be sunny and in the 70s, which is a far different environment than what the Bills are used to at this point of the season. That’s an advantage for the Jaguars’ offense. Buffalo already struggles to limit enemy production, especially when it comes to explosive plays (they’re 20th in opponent points per play) and opponent 3rd-down conversion rate (24th). Trevor Lawrence has cleaned up his game, but in the past, it’s been the norm for him to make far too many mistakes (11 interceptions through his first 11 games this season). Buffalo is 8th in defensive interception rate (2.8% of plays), so we could see Trevor regressing to his old ways.

Jacksonville‘s defense is a very legitimate group, ranking in the top-11 or better in most major categories. In limiting opponent 3rd downs, they are also below average (20th), but there is no denying their consistency on a down-by-down basis. The Jags’ new-look defense led by Anthony Campanile allows just 5 yards per play, and they’re even higher-rated against opposing quarterbacks (6.2 yards per pass allowed, 3rd overall). They should present a formidable challenge against Josh Allen and company, but we still think the former NFL MVP will rise to the occasion.

The question is: how much scoring will Josh Allen and his teammates produce on the road against a top-tier unit? That will likely decide this total. The Bills have been down this route too many times to predict a precipitous drop in production, especially considering the urgency of yet another playoff opportunity. That being said, 52.5 is an outrageously high number for an elimination game, and defenses tend to outplay offenses when the pressure is high. Jacksonville’s naivete is also an advantage for the Buffalo defense, who we expect to play better behind specialist Sean McDermott, who was hired to engineer repeatable, elite defenses. As much as we’d love to see a high-flying affair, we can’t support an over at this high of a number.

Bills vs Jags pick: Under 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

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Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Money Line

BUF Bills Win

Game Totals

Under 51.5

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

T. Etienne (JAX) to score a TD

Reasoning

Buffalo Bills ML over Jacksonville Jaguars (-110)

It’s the momentum Bills fans have been waiting years for. FINALLY, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will not stand in their way of postseason success. However, Allen and company didn’t fully capitalize, as they could only muster a Wild Card spot after conceding the AFC East to the Patriots, and must now go on the road throughout if they want to reach the Super Bowl. They should at least get off to a winning start at the expense of the Jaguars. The Jags have been excellent in Liam Coen’s first year as head coach, particularly behind an excellent pass defense that allowed the 3rd-fewest passing yards per attempt and secured 22 interceptions.

However, what the Bills have to their advantage is experience. Sean McDermott’s team have been a mainstay in the postseason and that should give them the edge against a very young Jags team that could find the occasion too much for them. While Buffalo has been disappointing by their standards, they have won 5 of their last 6 games and earned a particularly eyecatching win over the Patriots on the road last month. The Bills’ offense ranks 3rd in passing yards per attempt and 2nd in yards per carry, so can beat you in multiple ways. This one could go down to the wire, but I can’t see past Buffalo advancing to the Divisional Round.

Under 51.5 (-110)

As mentioned, the Jags’ defense has been the key to their success this season, and I believe it should do enough to keep the total below this lofty number. Jacksonville has not allowed more than 20 points in any of its last 6 games, and given how solid this D has been against the pass, I’m expecting them to do all they can to frustrate Allen and stymie his impact.

As for the Bills’ D, they have allowed the 4th-fewest passing yards per attempt and 6th-fewest passing touchdowns, so should have some success in slowing down Trevor Lawrence. The big question is on the Buffalo run defense, which allowed 5.1 yards per carry during the regular season and gave up the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. However, Travis Etienne has been inconsistent this year, going over 50 rushing yards in his last 4 games, so he could be slowed down. There should be points in this one, but I’m not expecting a shootout.

Travis Etienne to score a touchdown (-145)

While it is true that Etienne has been ineffecient on the ground, I still like him to find the end zone on Sunday. While there’s every chance he could take advantage of the Bills’ turnstile run D, having scored 7 TDs on the ground, Etienne has also been formidable through the air, catching 6 touchdown passes. He has 6 TDs in his last 5 games and should be used regularly to try to penetrate the Buffalo defense. Coen will also likely lean on his run game as a means of keeping the clock moving and keeping Allen off the field. Given this is -145 odds, it gives our Bills vs Jags SGP a massive boost due to it being a contrarian leg, and I’m happy to roll the dice with it.

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Bills vs Jaguars Same Game Parlay

Parlay Pick

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Sunday's NFL Wild Card parlay

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Point Spread

The Jaguars covered the spread in 12 of their 17 games this season.

Money Line

The Jaguars ended the regular season with 8 successive wins.

Game Totals

Only 3 of Buffalo's 8 road games went over the expected points total in the regular season.

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