HomeNFLNFL PredictionsBuffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 15 2025

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 15 2025 for Sunday, 12/14/25

Updated: 5:36 AM ET Dec 11, 2025

Gillette StadiumCBS

Bills

1:00 PM ETSun Dec 14

Patriots

LWLWW	Last 5	WWWWW
9-4	Record	11-2
6-7-0	ATS Record	9-4-0
6-7	O/U Record	7-6

Bills vs Patriots Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

BUF Bills -1.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Bills (9-4) have an outside shot of winning the AFC East for a sixth straight season, but need to beat the Patriots (11-2) at Gillette Stadium on Sunday to keep hope alive. Buffalo lost the first matchup with New England at home in Week 5, falling on a last-minute field goal in a 23-20 defeat as eight-point favorites. That was the second victory as part of their current 10-game winning streak, as New England won a total of eight games the previous two seasons.

Buffalo has won three of its past four games since a shocking loss at Miami in Week 10. The Bills rallied past the Bengals in the snow last Sunday, 39-34, scoring three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. QB Josh Allen threw three touchdown passes and scampered for a 40-yard TD run in the win, as the Bills are putting themselves in a solid spot as a Wild Card team if they can’t leap-frog the Patriots. Buffalo failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites, falling to 6-7 against the spread.

The Patriots are coming off the bye week after crushing the short-handed Giants at home, 33-15 as 7.5-point favorites, ending a two-game ATS slide. QB Drake Maye went from a questionable selection with the third pick last season to the odds-on MVP favorite in one season. Maye is second in the league in passing yards (3,412), third in TD passes (23), including nine games with multiple TD passes. In the first meeting with Buffalo, the former UNC standout was held without a TD toss for the only time in 13 games this season.

Seven of New England’s last eight wins have come against teams with losing records and the only victory is against Tampa Bay, who is 7-6. Buffalo is listed as a short favorite and has been susceptible to stubbing its toe this season off a big win. However, it’s tough to pass on them in this revenge spot, even against this red-hot New England squad.

Bills vs Patriots prediction: Bills -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 49.5(-110)

Reasoning

Both these teams have not posted convincing numbers in the Over-Under category. Buffalo is 7-6 to the Under, while New England is 7-6 to the Over, as both teams are coming off an Over in their last game. The Bills cashed the Over of 54.5 in last Sunday’s 39-34 victory over the Bengals, snapping a two-game Under streak. The Patriots also ended a two-game Under stretch with their 33-15 win over the Giants before the bye week, barely eclipsing the total of 46.5.

Buffalo owns an impressive 5-1 Under mark in six road games, as the lone Over came on a 48.5 total in a 40-9 rout of Carolina in Week 8. The Bills have been inconsistent from a scoring standpoint away from Highmark Stadium, scoring 19 points or less three times, while posting 26 or more points three times. From 2021-23, the Bills averaged 27.3 ppg in three games at Gillette Stadium with Josh Allen starting for Buffalo (he sat out last season’s finale).

New England has topped the 24-point mark in eight consecutive games, including three performances of at least 30 points. However, the Bills limited the Patriots to 23 points in the Week 5 home loss, the third-fewest points that New England has scored this season. Since finishing Under the total in their first two home losses to Las Vegas and Pittsburgh, the Pats have hit the Over in four of the past five games at Gillette Stadium. This is one of the tougher games to pick from the total perspective since each team has such different total records in the home-road splits. However, we’re going to look at a low-scoring game due to Buffalo’s inconsistency off a win and grab the Under.

Bills vs Patriots pick: Under 49.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Show Bio

Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.

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