Buffalo Bills
Nissan StadiumESPN
Buffalo Bills
4-1
Buffalo Bills
Tomorrow
Tennessee Titans
3-2
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans

Buffalo Bills
Point Spread Pick
BUF Bills Win -5.5

The Buffalo Bills opened as 2.5-point favorites and have since been bet all the way to -5.5. They’ve taken in 84% of the early wagers and appear to be the most public team on the board. Still, there is no way I would bet against the Buffalo Bills in this game. This team is on a mission this season and even though they are in the biggest letdown spot of all time, I don’t think they will come out flat. Josh Allen looks like the NFL’s MVP so far this season and he has weapons with chips on their shoulders. Their coach, Sean McDermott, coaches like he has a chip on his shoulder. Simply put, they’re not likely to be fat and happy after Sunday night’s beatdown of the Kansas City Chiefs.

The reason I care about letdowns is because that’s the only way the Tennessee Titans can compete with the Buffalo Bills at this point. The acquisition of Julio Jones seemed great in July but now that they are playing games without him, the move doesn’t look so good. AJ Brown has been underwhelming and Ryan Tannehill looks like a receiver again. He’s finished 2 games with under 200 passing yards so far. On top of all that, they’ve lost to the New York Jets. It’s bad. Tennessee’s only hope is Derrick Henry, but Buffalo sports the NFL’s best run defense (DVOA) so that will be a problem. The Bills are set to score all over Tennessee’s defense, so once the point-chasing starts, the Titans are in trouble. I think the Bills are the play in this game, even at -5.5.

Bills -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Tennessee Titans
Sportsbook
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Payout
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$18.70
Buffalo Bills
Game Totals Pick
Over 54.0

This is going to be a “are we going to get there, are we going to get there?” type game. It’s never going to be obvious that it’s going to happen and then it’s just going to happen. I would think the Bills run out to a lead by halftime. Hopefully we can get some lucky points from the Titans in there to keep us engaged. A 23-7 type score at the half will keep us watching instead of going to bed like people who don’t gamble.

If the Bills are housing these guys, they won’t let off the gas. Even if they’re ahead. Only 4 teams in the NFL have scored more second-half points than they have so far this season. Basically we don’t have to worry about them sitting on the ball. On the flip side, the Titans have scored 10+ points in the 4th quarter of 3 of their last 4 games. They won’t quit. It may not look good all game, but I think this over will hit.

Over 54 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Tennessee Titans
Sportsbook
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Payout
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$19.09
Photo of John Hyslop

John Hyslop

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You can't win if you don't bet. That's a fact. I've been betting games for over 20 years and writing about it for the past 10. If there's a game, there's an angle. We just have to find it.

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