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Carolina Panthers

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 18 2025 for Saturday, 01/03/26

Raymond James StadiumABC, ESPN
Panthers
Panthers
Sat Jan 3
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
LWLWL
Last 5
WLLLL
8-8Record7-9
9-7-0ATS Record5-11-0
7-9O/U Record8-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Panthers vs Buccaneers Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
CAR Panthers +3.0(-110)

Since the Falcons shocked bettors and beat the Rams on Monday Night Football, the race for the NFC South crown just got more complicated. In simpler terms, Tampa’s chances of making the playoffs just decreased significantly. Even if they win this game on Saturday, they need the Saints to knock off the Falcons (at Atlanta) on Sunday to win the division. 

Regardless, motivation will be at its peak on Saturday afternoon as these 2 NFC South rivals clash in the final week of the 2025 NFL season. The Bucs’ demise has been startling. Halfway through the season, they looked like one of the league’s most dangerous outfits (they were 6-2 entering Week 10). They have only 1 victory since, and December has churned out one perplexing loss after another (at home fails against New Orleans and Atlanta and last week falling to the Fins in Miami). They also dropped their first clash against the Panthers just 2 weeks ago, thanks to a Baker Mayfield interception on what could have been the game-winning drive. Since Week 10, they’ve been the favorite in 6 out of 8 contests, a designation they’ll receive once again at home in this crucial battle. Not once have they covered the spread since Week 10, either.

Injuries to key players on both sides of the ball have been their biggest challenge, but we also can’t ignore the absence of Liam Coen, the distinguished offensive coordinator who left to coach the Jaguars this season. Jacksonville now sits 12-4 and is one of the top seeds in the AFC.

The Panthers have rarely played consistently well this season, either, but their journey to the top of the NFC South has been far more impressive than their rival. Halfway through the season, they were 4-4, a nice surprise considering their downtrodden years prior. Key wins at Lambeau Field, at Atlanta, at home against the Rams and most recently against the Bucs have carved a path for Dave Canales and his roster. Much to the chagrin of Tampa and their other rivals, the Panthers simply won’t go away. Anchored by a defense that plays its best in the clutch (they’re 13th in opponent red-zone success) and a formidable rushing attack (11th in rush yards per game), they’ve only lost consecutive games once this season, in Weeks 1 and 2. In his 3rd year, Bryce Young has also emerged as a more dependable thrower, although his numbers are never eye-popping (21st in yards, 24th in turnovers, 23rd in total QBR).

It’s really hard to support Tampa right now, especially as the chalk. They’re just 2-7 against the spread as the favorite this season, while Carolina revels in the underdog role (8-5 ATS). All things considered, the Panthers feel like the right side to be on.

Panthers vs Buccaneers prediction: Panthers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Under 44.0(-110)

Saturday’s opener is set at a total that’s in limbo by all standards, and it’s not-coincidentally a tick below the same number (43) that their Week 16 battle ended on. At this point, neither team is trustworthy on offense. 

Tampa started the season as one of the NFL’s hottest offenses. Their 6-2 run was highlighted by many big Baker Mayfield moments, catalyzed by a receiving corps that was clearly one of the deepest and most talented in the league. In those 8 games, Baker totaled 210+ pass yards in 5, with the offense soaring over 345+ total yards in the same number of games. An early injury to Mike Evans changed the offense, though, taking away the Bucs’ #1 threat. Starting running back Bucky Irving had to sit out in October and returned in the final weekend of November, too, further hampering an offense that was a top unit early on. Off and on injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Tristan Wirfs, didn’t help either.

Fast forward to Week 18, and the Bucs are much healthier, with Evans, Irving, and Wirfs free of any injury designation heading into Saturday. But that’s been the case for a few weeks now, and something just feels off. Of course, Mayfield might not admit it but a left shoulder injury in Week 12 might still be slowing him down. No Liam Coen, their first-class play-caller in seasons past, might be limiting their potential, too. Tampa has failed to surpass 301 total yards in 4 of 8 games.

The Panthers’ offense is subpar by most metrics. They have a good ground game, rated in the top half of the NFL in nearly every category (122.4 per game, 11th), but they rarely produce points (18.6 on average, 27th), nor do they ever create big plays (27th in points and yards per play). They’re average, which means much better, in most of the same categories defensively, and in their first clash with the Bucs, they held Baker and company to just 20 points and 296 total yards (along with a pathetic 4.9 yards per play).

This total is rightly low but not low enough. Considering what’s on the line, the animosity between 2 rivals and the lack of consistent production from both offenses, there’s only one way to look.

Panthers vs Bucs pick: Under 44 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.

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Chris R. Farley
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Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
@FarleyBets
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Top Trends
Game Totals

The Over is 5-1 in the Buccaneers' home games this season

Point Spread

The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with winning records.

Money Line

The Buccaneers have lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams with winning records.

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