Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/28/25

The Chicago Bears are riding high off their first win of the season, but I’m skeptical they’ll be able to keep it going here against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. Although it was nice to see Ben Johnson get his first win as a head coach, I think that one had more to do with Dallas’ shortcomings on defense than anything else. And the fact that they won 31-14 is pretty wildly misleading when you dig into the box score. Given that final score, it’ll probably surprise you to learn that the Cowboys actually out-gained the Bears.

Dak Prescott threw multiple uncharacteristic interceptions, and CeeDee Lamb exited early with an ankle injury before recording a catch. Caleb Williams’ play was encouraging, but the Bears’ ground game continued to be nonexistent as they rushed for just 87 yards on 29 attempts. Let’s not forget that this is a team that just the week before gave up 52 points in a blowout loss to the Lions. That’s what happened last time they went on the road, and they clearly aren’t the same team away from home.

The Raiders aren’t great, but their weakness last week in their loss to Washington was their run defense and Chicago can’t run the ball. Geno Smith still averaged 10 yards per attempt last week, and I think he will have more success here against a porous Bears defense. Chicago is also going to be without 4 starters in this one, with tight end Colston Loveland, linebacker T.J. Edwards, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and right tackle Darnell Wright all ruled out with various injuries.

Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Raiders -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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I think this one has shootout potential. Both teams struggle defensively, and both teams struggle to run the ball so they should be leaning on their passing attacks. Last week the Raiders gave up 41 points to the Commanders, and that was with Marcus Mariota filling in for Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Bears gave up 400 yards to the Cowboys despite CeeDee Lamb leaving before recording a catch, and the week before that they gave up 52 points to the Lions.

Caleb Williams had one of his best games as a pro last week when he threw for 4 touchdowns against Dallas, and I think Ben Johnson will want him to continue to build on that by having him let it rip here against Las Vegas. Despite the fact that Williams has been shaky, the Bears have now scored at least 21 points in all 3 of their games. Even in their big win over the Cowboys last week, they still only averaged 3.0 yards per rush — so I think they’ll be chucking it on Sunday.

Bears vs Raiders pick: Over 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.

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