Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Black Friday NFL Week 13 2025 for Friday, 11/28/25

The Eagles’ defense has looked in its best form throughout November. That is, until last Sunday. The Cowboys’ avenged two early turnovers and did whatever they wanted eventually, gaining an impressive seven yards per play and scoring a touchdown on three out of five red-zone possessions. Dumb mistakes (14 penalties for 96 yards, two turnovers) by Philly certainly helped catalyze Dallas’ resurgence. A banged up secondary won’t help matters against Caleb Williams and a burgeoning Bears’ offense, but we’re also not overly concerned about the Eagles’ ability to respond after a poor performance. Vic Fangio is one of the league’s premiere defensive coaches, a major reason why Philadelphia sits at 6th overall in total defensive EPA. We’re confident that he’ll scheme and fix the errors he saw from Sunday’s performance.

The Bears’ offense is generating 26.3 points per game (8th) and has one of the NFL’s best rushing operations. They sit 7th overall in rushing yards per game (142.3) and per carry (4.8). We consider the Bears’ offense versus the Eagles’ defense to be an even matchup in that sense, but Philly has a distinct advantage against the pass. Fangio’s group ranks 7th in defensive EPA per pass and ranks #1 in opponent pass completion rate (57.41%). They’ll be battling a Bears’ pass-game that’s middling in some areas (15th in yards per pass) and far below average in others (59.29% completion rate, 31st). Chicago also benefits from the NFL’s best turnover margin (+1.5 per game); this checks out as a quintessential regression game.

The total could be decided when Philly’s offense takes the field, a group that’s been inconsistent at best (14th in total EPA). For example, Jalen Hurts is only averaging 193.2 pass yards per game (23rd). But we could certainly say the same thing about Dennis Allen’s defense, a unit that’s 18th in total EPA and allows 26.5 points per game (27th, and that’s mostly against poor offenses). While we can’t necessarily count on the Eagles’ offense or the Bears’ defense, we know that this will be a contentious game between two top NFC teams and that there are plenty of reasons to fade both quarterbacks. Conclusion: this number is a tad too high.

Bears vs Eagles pick: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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