HomeNFLNFL PredictionsChicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football NFL Week 17 2025

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football NFL Week 17 2025 for Today, 12/28/25

Updated: 8:53 AM ET Dec 28, 2025

Levi's StadiumNBC

Bears

8:20 PM ETToday

49ers

WWLWW	Last 5	WWWWW
11-4	Record	11-4
10-4-1	ATS Record	10-5-0
7-8	O/U Record	9-6

Bears vs 49ers Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

CHI Bears +3.0(-110)

Reasoning

Caleb Williams and the Bears did it again in Week 16. Although they were trailing for the majority of the contest, Chicago willed itself to a victory at home against a team that has historically dominated their franchise. An onside-kick recovery and then a timely error by the Green Bay offense, which included a failed 4th-down conversion in overtime, opened the window for Williams and the offense. Eventually the Bears tallied up 400 total yards on Saturday night, largely behind the heroics of their 2nd-year quarterback. Williams had another efficient performance, going 19-34 for 250 yards (7.4 yards per pass) and 2 touchdowns. He also ran 3 times for 30 yards, converting a few key first downs.

Chicago’s defense had its struggles, even after Jordan Love left the game (they allowed Malik Willis and the Packers to run for 190 yards), but they also made big plays when they needed to. Dennis Allen’s group prevented the Pack from scoring late, allowing just 3 points in the 4th quarter and nothing more in overtime. In one of the biggest turnaround stories this season, Chicago clinched a playoff berth in the process and now they have a firm 2-game lead in the NFC North.

The 49ers won their 5th game in a row on Monday night and were completely unstoppable on offense. Some of that may be due to the current state of the banged-up Colts, who are hanging on by a thread in the playoff race. Regardless, 28 first downs and 440 yards later, San Francisco remains a threat even for the NFC’s #1 seed, which was inconceivable 6 weeks ago. The return of Brock Purdy and the steady, disciplined nature of Robert Saleh’s defense have kept the outfit thriving, and many consider the Niners a dark-horse threat to make a deep playoff run. Contrarily, most of their wins have come against lower-tier opponents or opponents in difficult situations, as they’ve had one of the most complimentary schedules in the NFL this season. Their defense, which ranks 23rd in total EPA metrics and allowed 27 points to the Phillip Rivers-led Colts on Monday, is still cause for concern.

This already feels like a playoff game since the team that loses will effectively be booted out of contention for the NFC’s #1 seed. Chicago has been super-consistent this season, qualifying as one of the most effective teams against the spread (10-5, 66.7%). So has San Francisco (9-5-1 overall, 7-2-1 as a favorite). Still, this is a coin-flip game from our perspective, and Chicago’s defense is playing better than advertised right now (12th in total EPA).

Bears vs 49ers prediction: Bears +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Over 52.0(-110)

Reasoning

The 49ers and Bears offenses are built very similarly, although one has been obviously outperforming the other. Kyle Shanahan always wants to run the ball, he’s not shy about that, but this year the Niners’ ground attack is a shell of what it used to be. At least part of that is because their offensive line hasn’t performed as well as has in the past due to its newer parts. Pro Football Focus ranks their offensive line top-5, but it also points out their obvious transgressions as a run-blocking unit. Against the Colts, they had a rare night, rushing for 145 yards, but in advanced metrics they rank just 23th in EPA per rush. The Bears, contrarily, are one of the best (4th), and very few defenses have limited their production (Chicago has run for 140+ in six of their past eight contests).

Both coaches use the running game to set up the rest of their offense, although Shanahan has needed to rely on Purdy (and Mac Jones when he was injured) to carry the load more often than he’d like. The Niners’ passing attack is one of the best in the NFL (5th in total EPA per pass), which is a matchup advantage against a Bears’ defense that’s very average against opposing throwers. In some categories, they’re pretty awful (7.5 yards per pass allowed, 27th).

Regardless of what their defense does, the Bears are consistent offensively, a top-10 unit in nearly every category that matters. They throw the ball fewer than 25 other teams (52.89%), but Caleb Williams rarely turns it over (1.2% interception rate, 3rd) and they’re one of the best offenses on 3rd downs (42.65% conversion rate).

Considering the stakes of this contest, we might think defenses will eventually get more involved. In this case, we doubt it. San Francisco will present a beautiful environment for some late night football (mid to upper 40s, no wind), and eventually we see both coaches and quarterbacks finding a rhythm sooner than later.

Bears vs 49ers pick: Over 52 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.

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Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

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