Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 12/07/25

The Bengals made waves on Thanksgiving night by pulling off an upset as underdogs of nearly a touchdown against the Ravens in Baltimore. On first glance, Joe Burrow’s return seemed to spark the Cincinnati offense and it seemed to be a more inspired effort from the Bengals defense en route to a win that somehow kept them alive in what is suddenly a very weak AFC North division race. However, I’m of the opinion that the narrative on Burrow and the Bengals has gotten a little out of hand heading into this week’s contest, which gives us a bit of value on Buffalo this week.

For starters, much of the talk has been about Cincinnati’s newfound offense, but the Bengals registered one of the bottom 5 success rates of any team that played a week ago, and that was against a pretty banged-up Ravens defense in the back end. Joe Burrow and this offense only averaged 4.8 yards per play and was consistently set up with good field position. It’s hard to assume that this will happen again this week, especially considering Buffalo’s defensive front is playing better following a couple of solid showings against Houston and Pittsburgh. Even though Cincinnati’s offense is a step-up in class compared to those units, it’s hard not to see Buffalo generating pressure when matched up against this Bengals offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, while Cincinnati’s defense is certainly playing better than in weeks past, it still benefited from five Baltimore turnovers a week ago, including a fumble out of the end zone as the Ravens were going in for a touchdown that completely changed the momentum of the game. Considering the fact that Josh Allen and the Bills are due for a bit of turnover regression at home following a string of fumbles and tipped interceptions over the last 4 weeks, we can expect Buffalo to play a cleaner and more efficient game in a spot where it has historically been successful in recent years. I’ll lay the points with a Bills offense that is getting healthier while fading the Cincinnati hype train.

Bengals vs Bills prediction: Bills -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6. 

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