HomeNFLNFL PredictionsDallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 14 2025

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 14 2025 for Thursday, 12/04/25

Updated: 1:49 PM ET Dec 02, 2025

Ford FieldAmazon Prime Video

Cowboys

8:15 PM ETThu Dec 4

Lions

LLWWW	Last 5	LWLWL
6-5-1	Record	7-5
7-5-0	ATS Record	6-6-0
7-5	O/U Record	7-5

Cowboys vs Lions Best Bets

Game Totals PickBest Bet

Over 53.5(-120)

Reasoning

The obvious approach in a game with two offenses as potent as the Cowboys and Lions is to consider the over. Markets obviously know that. Even at opening, this total was far above average and has barely budgeted, now circulating around 53.5 depending on the book. Both programs have shown impressive defensive performances at various junctures this season, but for the most part Dallas and Detroit are well below the mean on that side of the ball.

For example, although they’ve played better recently, the Cowboys rank bottom five in opponent points per game and points per play and in opponent yards per game in yards per play. Lately their defense has been aided by new additions Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, who coincidentally arrived around the same time that Dallas’ defensive roster got healthier. That helped their resistance limit the Raiders to 16 and the Eagles to 21 points, but last week they still permitted 28 to the Chiefs, a team far more comparable to the high-powered Lions.

It’s tough to not be disappointed by Detroit’s performance last Thursday, but one must keep in mind that it was against a tough divisional opponent. Green Bay seems to have Detroit’s number. Dallas can say no such thing. Last season the Cowboys allowed a similarly constructed Lions’ roster to put up 47 points at AT&T Stadium. This Thursday Detroit is surely incurring some injury problems, but they should also be hyper-motivated to correct their mistakes, especially since the NFC North crown is at risk of slipping away. And as most know, the Lions depend on their offense to carry them to victory (they’re top three in points and yards per game).

We could get cute here, but we must take the over.

Cowboys vs Lions best bet: Over 53.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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Cowboys vs Lions Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

DAL Cowboys +3.0(-105)

Reasoning

Perceptions have never been higher on the Cowboys. One week after knocking off the Eagles, a game that sent Philly’s hopes into a spiral, Jerry Jones’ franchise beat the Kansas City Chiefs, cementing victories against each of last year’s Super Bowl attendees. Dallas’ Thanksgiving win might’ve been more impressive than their Week 13 takedown of the Eagles since it included more big plays from their defense. Obviously a different group than the bottom-feeders that started the season, the Cowboys’ defense held Kansas City to just 6 yards per play and 5-13 on third downs.

Fresh new faces this season made impacts throughout the game, including two sacks by Jadeveon Clowney, one by Dante Fowler Jr., and others made key stops when it mattered. Their offense continued to show off, too. Against one of the best defenses and best defensive coaches in the NFL, Dak Prescott avenged an early interception to go 27/39 for 320 yards and two touchdowns. The bulk of that production came from his two all-world receivers, George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, who combined for 13 catches, 200 yards and a touchdown. Their ground attack also continued to exceed expectations (26 carries for 137 yards), good for 5.3 yards per carry.

Perhaps most important of all, Cowboys’ coach Brian Schottenheimer was in full command against the three-time Super Bowl winning Chiefs, out-witting Steve Spagnuolo in key moments of the game. At 6-5-1, Dallas is in position to threaten for an NFC East crown, believe it or not!

Things didn’t go so smoothly for the Lions on Thanksgiving. Just like two seasons ago, they allowed Jordan Love and an upstart Packers’ offense to slice through their resistance when it mattered. Green Bay threw for 7.8 yards per pass and eventually put up 31 points, and then their defense shut down the Lions’ offense in the fourth quarter. It was a startling showing from Dan Campbell’s program, an outfit we expect to show up and play elite football in these spots. Even worse, Detroit has key injuries throughout their offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown is officially a game-time decision on Thursday, Detroit is down to their third tight end, and center Graham Glasnow remains out.

Our first inclination was to go with Detroit off a loss, at home, and with increasing desperation to get their season back on track. But there’s too much momentum on Dallas’ side right now, and we’re not sure how the Lions will be able to stop Dak and his first-class offense (4th in EPA per pass). We’ll go with the visitors.

Cowboys vs Lions TNF prediction: Cowboys +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

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