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Hello Millions
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds and MNF Picks for Monday, 11/17/25

Allegiant StadiumABC, ESPN
Cowboys
Cowboys
Mon Nov 17
Raiders
Raiders
WLWLL
Last 5
LWLLL
3-5-1Record2-7
4-5-0ATS Record4-5-0
6-3O/U Record3-6
Las Vegas Raiders

Cowboys vs Raiders Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet
DAL Cowboys -3.5(-110)

Last Thursday night the Raiders were part of one of the worst NFL games in history, and that’s not a subjective comment. The Broncos and Raiders each earned just 10 first downs. Combined they only gained 408 total yards, averaging just 3.2 (LV) and 3.9 (DEN) yards per play. It was a mess of a game, and frankly there’s not much we can glean from it. Sure, Vegas’ defense played well and held the Broncos to just 10 points and forced two interceptions, but Denver is also known to play down to their competition. Just ask the Jets, Giants, and Texans.

In totality, the Raiders’ defense qualifies as very average. They allow 24.4 points per game (20th) and 320.8 yards per game (15th), which we think will be a huge problem in their Week 11 matchup. It’s especially a problem considering how mediocre the Raiders’ offense is, a group that ranks 26th in EPA per pass and 32nd in EPA per rush.

The Cowboys are the more flawed defense in this matchup (30th in EPA per pass and EPA per rush), but they are a far better offense. Dallas’ last outing was their worst from an offensive standpoint, generating just 333 yards (far from poor but still well below their standards) and 17 points in a loss against the Cardinals. Even with that loss and regression, they remain one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL (378.4 yards per game, 4th). 

Coming off a bye week, the Cowboys’ roster had to endure more than the memory of defeat. Beloved second year defensive end Marshawn Kneeland passed away due to mental health issues just a few days after their Week 9 loss, heavy and unexpected news that Cowboy players and coaches had to contemplate throughout their break. And while it may seem distasteful to weigh the effect of a player’s death as part of a handicap, it is something that objectively occurred and we must consider. In this case, we feel strongly that the Cowboys, who are led by a quarterback whose brother passed away under the same circumstances, come out on absolute fire for their fallen comrade. 

Dallas is a team built by offense, although they made a splash by trading for Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson and star interior lineman Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline. Combined with their poor performance in Week 9, we project to see the best version of the Cowboys and the Raiders struggling to keep up.

Cowboys vs Raiders best bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Cowboys vs Raiders Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick
Over 50.0(-110)

Our handicap of this game is constructed on the premise of the Cowboys’ offensive success, which we are bullish about, which means we also have very strong feelings about the total. The Raiders’ offense hasn’t been close to average in most categories this season but they’ve also faced plenty of elite defenses. In nine games we’ve counted six defenses they’ve battled that we consider in the top-tier: NE, LAC, IND, KC, JAX, and DEN. The Cowboys cannot be compared to those groups. In fact, Dallas has consistently performed below average, even when they’ve faced poor offenses. For example, when clashing with the Giants, Jets, and Panthers, they permitted 89 combined points (or 29.7 points per game). Dallas decided to trade draft capital to land a few key components they need on defense before the trade deadline, but it’s not enough to completely flip their efficacy and hide their flaws. Geno Smith and company can get to 20 points or close in this contest, which is plenty if we like the over.

On the other side, the Raiders’ defense is a better unit, top-5 in opponent yards per carry (3.8) and top-11 in opponent yards per pass (6.9), but we’re throwing out those stats for this showdown. Firstly, when Vegas took on better offenses, they didn’t look very good at all. The Commanders, Bears, Colts, Chiefs and Jaguars scored an outrageous 167 combined points on them (good for 33.4 points per game). Vegas’ main achilles heel on defense is how poor they are at getting to the quarterback, ranked 25th in sack rate (5.7%). And as we’ve seen time and time again, giving Dak Prescott time to throw, especially with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens running around in the open field, is a recipe for disaster. On both sides, points are coming.

Cowboys vs Raiders prediction: Over 50 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Photo of Chris Farley

Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
@FarleyBets
Read more about Chris Farley
Top Trends
Point Spread

The Raiders have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 home games against teams with losing records.

Game Totals

The Cowboys' last 3 road games have gone Over the total.

Money Line

The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with losing records.

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