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Hello Millions
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys vs Las Vegas Raiders Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Monday Night Football Week 11 2025 for Today, 11/17/25

Allegiant StadiumABC, ESPN
Cowboys
Cowboys
Today
Raiders
Raiders
WLWLL
Last 5
LWLLL
3-5-1Record2-7
4-5-0ATS Record4-5-0
6-3O/U Record3-6
Las Vegas Raiders

Cowboys vs Raiders Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet
DAL Cowboys -3.5(-110)

Last Thursday night the Raiders were part of one of the worst NFL games in history, and that’s not a subjective comment. The Broncos and Raiders each earned just 10 first downs. Combined they only gained 408 total yards, averaging just 3.2 (LV) and 3.9 (DEN) yards per play. It was a mess of a game, and frankly there’s not much we can glean from it. Sure, Vegas’ defense played well and held the Broncos to just 10 points and forced two interceptions, but Denver is also known to play down to its competition. Just ask the Jets, Giants and Texans. In totality, the Raiders’ defense qualifies as very average. They allow 24.4 points per game (20th) and 320.8 yards per game (15th), which we think will be a huge problem in their Week 11 matchup. It’s especially a problem considering how mediocre the Raiders’ offense is, a group that ranks 26th in EPA per pass and 32nd in EPA per rush.

The Cowboys are the more flawed defense in this matchup (30th in EPA per pass and EPA per rush), but they are a far better offense. Dallas’ last outing was their worst from an offensive standpoint, generating just 333 yards (far from poor but still well below their standards) and 17 points in a loss against the Cardinals. Even with that loss and regression, they remain one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL (378.4 yards per game, 4th). 

Coming off a bye week, the Cowboys’ roster had to endure more than the memory of defeat. Beloved second year defensive end Marshawn Kneeland passed away due to mental health issues just a few days after their Week 9 loss, heavy and unexpected news that Cowboy players and coaches had to contemplate throughout their break. And while it may seem distasteful to weigh the effect of a player’s death as part of a handicap, it is something that objectively occurred and we must consider. In this case, we feel strongly that the Cowboys, who are led by a quarterback whose brother passed away under the same circumstances, come out on absolute fire for their fallen comrade. Dallas is a team built by offense, although it made a splash by trading for Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson and star interior lineman Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline. Combined with their poor performance in Week 9, we project to see the best version of the Cowboys and the Raiders struggling to keep up.

Cowboys vs Raiders best bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Chris R. Farley

Cowboys vs Raiders Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick
Over 50.0(-110)

Our handicap of this game is constructed on the premise of the Cowboys’ offensive success, which we are bullish about, which means we also have very strong feelings about the total. The Raiders’ offense hasn’t been close to average in most categories this season but they’ve also faced plenty of elite defenses. In nine games we’ve counted six defenses they’ve battled that we consider in the top-tier: NE, LAC, IND, KC, JAX, and DEN. The Cowboys cannot be compared to those groups. In fact, Dallas has consistently performed below average, even when they’ve faced poor offenses. For example, when clashing with the Giants, Jets, and Panthers, they permitted 89 combined points (or 29.7 points per game). Dallas decided to trade draft capital to land a few key components they need on defense before the trade deadline, but it’s not enough to completely flip their efficacy and hide their flaws. Geno Smith and company can get to 20 points or close in this contest, which is plenty if we like the over.

On the other side, the Raiders’ defense is a better unit, top-5 in opponent yards per carry (3.8) and top-11 in opponent yards per pass (6.9), but we’re throwing out those stats for this showdown. Firstly, when Vegas took on better offenses, they didn’t look very good at all. The Commanders, Bears, Colts, Chiefs and Jaguars scored an outrageous 167 combined points on them (good for 33.4 points per game). Vegas’ main achilles heel on defense is how poor they are at getting to the quarterback, ranked 25th in sack rate (5.7%). And as we’ve seen time and time again, giving Dak Prescott time to throw, especially with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens running around in the open field, is a recipe for disaster. On both sides, points are coming.

Cowboys vs Raiders prediction: Over 50 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
C. Lamb (DAL) to score a TD(+115)

Aside from an injury that kept him out of 3 games through the first half of the season, CeeDee Lamb is putting together another monster year and is primed to have a massive 2nd half of the season. Before the Cowboys’ bye week, Lamb reeled in 7 of 12 targets on Monday Night Football for 85 yards. He’s scored a TD in just 1 game this season, but his team-leading 23.5% team target share is encouraging enough to back him at plus-money — especially with a Cowboys implied team total of 26.5 points.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)
Same Game Parlay Pick
D. Prescott 240+ pass yds & C. Lamb 6+ recs(-105)

The lines for this Dallas offense are not where I wanted them to be in order to pull the trigger on a 1u base line. Preferably, I’d get Lamb at over 6.5 receptions for plus-money odds and it’s at -131. For Dak, I’d want him at 251.5 passing yards, but he’s 255.5 on most books.

For both, the matchup is very much in their favor. Lamb is targeted at the 17th-highest rate in the league amongst WRs against zone coverage and the Raiders play zone at the 3rd-highest rate in the league according to PFF. This trend carries over into Prescott’s success against zone coverage, ranking 2nd in efficiency and owns PFF’s 5th-highest grade against single-high coverage shells, which Las Vegas runs at the 7th-highest rate in the league. It’s unfortunate we’re not over even money on this, but considering the outcomes are correlated, I feel comfortable taking -105 on this Cowboys vs Raiders player prop parlay.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
J. Bech (LV) to score a TD(+1100)

Let’s dive into the Raiders’ offensive side of the football against a woeful Cowboys defense that is allowing a touchdown on nearly 70% of drives that enter the red zone. Offensive leaders Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers are -145 and +100 to find the end zone, so we’ll pivot to rookie wide receiver Jake Bech at +950. Bech wasn’t used nearly enough as many anticipated last week on TNF against the Broncos. Instead, it was Tyler Lockett who saw 57% of the snaps with the departure of Jakobi Meyers. Nonetheless, we’ll hope the rookie Bech gets more usage off an extended week of practice and is worth taking a shot on at +1100 odds.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)
Photo of Chris Farley

Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
@FarleyBets
Read more about Chris Farley

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread
DAL Cowboys -5.5
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
G. Pickens (DAL) to score a TD
Player Passing Yards
G. Smith (LV) - Over 231.5 pass yds

Dallas Cowboys -5.5 alternate spread over Las Vegas Raiders (+114)

This is a fantastic value spot for the Cowboys. They are coming off a bye week and are being mispriced on the road in a venue that is not difficult to play in – especially not when the Raiders have long since been eliminated (albeit not mathematically) from playoff contention. Moreover, Las Vegas is in the midst of a 3-game losing streak – during which it is averaging 12.0 points per contest. The Raiders’ most recent outing against the Broncos set offensive football back several decades – if not more. They combined for a mere 10 first downs in Denver’s 10-7 victory, and Las Vegas averaged a mere 3.2 yards per play.

I don’t care how bad the Cowboys’ defense is; it’s hard to see the Raiders’ offense being able to keep up in this contest. Moreover, Dallas’ defense should be improved to at least some extent from what it was prior to the trade deadline. New acquisitions Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams will make their Cowboy debuts on Monday Night Football.

George Pickens to score a touchdown (+150)

Pickens has gone 3 straight contests without scoring a touchdown. It’s time for him to get back on the horse. I’m not a big fan of the “he’s due” argument, but it is fair to say that a 3-game stretch without a TD is certainly an aberration as opposed to the rule for Pickens. After all, the Georgia product had previously found the end zone in 5 consecutive outings – scoring a total of 6 touchdowns in those 5. He should be able to resume his scoring ways at the expense of a mediocre Las Vegas defense that is 21st league-wide in scoring at 24.4 points per game allowed.

Geno Smith Over 231.5 passing yards (-111)

The likely game script – especially the one in this SGP that calls for Dallas to win by at least a touchdown – has Las Vegas playing from behind most of if not all the way and therefore being forced to air it out. On sheer volume alone, Smith should be able to exceed this 231.5 number. The former West Virginia standout has attempted at least 34 passes 4 times this season, including 39 in Week 9 against Jacksonville (which he parlayed into 284 yards and 4 touchdowns). Smith now faces a Cowboys defense that is horrendous against the pass. It is 29th in passing defense (254.4 yards per game allowed) and 2nd-to-last in yards per attempt allowed (8.2).

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Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Same Game Parlay Pick
D. Prescott 240+ pass yds & C. Lamb 6+ recs(-105)

The lines for this Dallas offense are not where I wanted them to be in order to pull the trigger on a 1u base line. Preferably, I’d get Lamb at over 6.5 receptions for plus-money odds and it’s at -131. For Dak, I’d want him at 251.5 passing yards, but he’s 255.5 on most books.

For both, the matchup is very much in their favor. Lamb is targeted at the 17th-highest rate in the league amongst WRs against zone coverage and the Raiders play zone at the 3rd-highest rate in the league according to PFF. This trend carries over into Prescott’s success against zone coverage, ranking 2nd in efficiency and owns PFF’s 5th-highest grade against single-high coverage shells, which Las Vegas runs at the 7th-highest rate in the league. It’s unfortunate we’re not over even money on this, but considering the outcomes are correlated, I feel comfortable taking -105 on this Cowboys vs Raiders player prop parlay.

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Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
C. Lamb (DAL) to score a TD(+115)

Aside from an injury that kept him out of 3 games through the first half of the season, CeeDee Lamb is putting together another monster year and is primed to have a massive 2nd half of the season. Before the Cowboys’ bye week, Lamb reeled in 7 of 12 targets on Monday Night Football for 85 yards. He’s scored a TD in just 1 game this season, but his team-leading 23.5% team target share is encouraging enough to back him at plus-money — especially with a Cowboys implied team total of 26.5 points.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
J. Bech (LV) to score a TD(+1100)

Let’s dive into the Raiders’ offensive side of the football against a woeful Cowboys defense that is allowing a touchdown on nearly 70% of drives that enter the red zone. Offensive leaders Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers are -145 and +100 to find the end zone, so we’ll pivot to rookie wide receiver Jake Bech at +950. Bech wasn’t used nearly enough as many anticipated last week on TNF against the Broncos. Instead, it was Tyler Lockett who saw 57% of the snaps with the departure of Jakobi Meyers. Nonetheless, we’ll hope the rookie Bech gets more usage off an extended week of practice and is worth taking a shot on at +1100 odds.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Featured In

Top Trends
Point Spread

The Raiders have covered the spread in 9 of their last 10 home games against teams with losing records.

Game Totals

The Cowboys' last 3 road games have gone Over the total.

Money Line

The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with losing records.

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