Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Thursday, 09/04/25

An NFC East battle will kickoff the 2025 NFL season as the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles play host to the Dallas Cowboys, a team that was all over the news this past week. Micah Parsons, the now ex-Cowboy, is gone to the Packers, but life goes on for Jerry Jones and his franchise. After a long drama, analysts all over are predicting the demise of Dallas’ defense following the trade, with some advanced metrics (particularly “EPA,” or “Expected Points Added”) suggesting Dallas goes from best to worst without the gifted edge rusher. They also fell from 7 to 7.5-point underdogs on the spread, a significant margin considering how common 7-point finishes are.

On the plus side, Dallas overhauled their coaching staff, which may or may not bring dividends, including Brian Shottenheimer as head-man (a questionable hire, to say the least) and Matt Eberflus, the former Bears’ coach who’s now out for career-vengeance, as their new defensive coordinator. In addition, they re-signed young studs in their front-seven, a group that was 2nd overall in sack percentage last season, and added veteran defensive end Dante Fowler, Jr. Their offense remains their stalwart side. Former MVP front-runner Dak Prescott is back and we mustn’t forget that he led a Cowboys offense to many prolific seasons in years prior. He’ll have an exciting tandem at wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb and the newly acquired George Pickens, a duo that will inevitably cause nightmares for opposing defenses. Their run game has a big questionable tag over it, since they signed Javonte Williams following a few underperforming seasons with the Broncos.

The Eagles have fewer surprises. They lost play-caller Kellen Moore to the Saints (replaced by Kevin Patullo, who was their passing-game coordinator last season), but their offense is largely the exact same, a group that produced a top-10 passing attack and the league’s best ground-game in 2024. They’ll combat a Cowboys defense that was 31st in points and 28th in yards allowed per game, presenting a clear matchup advantage for the home team. If the Cowboys contend with their arch-rival on Thursday, it’ll likely be because their offense thrives. The Eagles lost 7 key players of their defense during the offseason (Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, Bryce Huff, Oren Burks, CJ Gardner-Johnson and Darius Slay), but their roster was so deep in 2024 that their 2025 crew remains one of the best groups in the league, at least on paper. 

Despite the big spread, we can’t trust Dallas. Organizations are living things, and the Cowboys’ franchise has been through a rollercoaster of drama and controversy leading to Week 1. The Eagles are stable where it matters, they’re at home and they respond under pressure.

Cowboys vs Eagles prediction: Eagles -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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