Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction, Odds and TNF Picks for Thursday, 09/04/25

A new look Dallas Cowboys squad will take the field on Thursday Night, headlined by flashy wide receiver George Pickens. Along with Pickens, the Cowboys welcome a new run game and, more importantly, a new coaching staff. With CeeDee Lamb getting #1 corner assignments all season long, Pickens has all the makings of having a career year — presumed to begin on Thursday Night Football with a questionable Eagles cornerback room outside of Quinyon Mitchell.

As more than a touchdown underdog on the road, quarterback Dak Prescott is expected to pass a ton on TNF, ultimately feeding Pickens in a negative game script. Fanatics Sportsbook is leading the way in terms of offering the best price, but FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a 50% profit boost for Cowboys-Eagles — raising your Pickens anytime touchdown scorer from +220 to +330.

Let’s get weird on opening night. All eyes will be on the loaded Eagles offense, led by Saquon Barkley and Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts. As stated in our Pickens piece, the game script will heavily favor the Eagles. They have the highest implied team total and now get a Cowboys defense that traded away Micah Parsons. So, we’ll take a shot at Will Shipley finding the end zone at +800.

Shipley failed to carve out a role last season with Barkley having 345 carries in the regular season, playing behind Kenneth Gainwell and being a rookie. Nonetheless, he is listed as the #2 running back on the unofficial depth chart, in front of former Green Bay Packer A.J. Dillon — who was nearly cut in training camp.

DraftKings is headlining their boosts with a 50% touchdown boost for Thursday Night Football. That, along with them already having the best price for Will Shipley to find the end zone makes this a match made in heaven. Using your anytime touchdown boost for Shipley will give you +1125 odds — a worthy longshot to bring the NFL season in.

The 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the year is coming off well over 450 touches (482) when you factor in the postseason, and that’s not a number they’ll want him near again if the Eagles want to repeat. If the spread tells us anything, a 7.5 line in a divisional game to kick off the year is pretty big. Backup RB Will Shipley and new addition AJ Dillon should have a role early in the season to keep the miles off Barkley.

I like the under by itself if you can get 94.5 or higher, but getting this at nearly 3-1 on bet365 with the TD is too good to pass up. Other books are at +220 with his yards at 90.5/92.5, so I like the value here. If you can’t get this on bet365, just pivot to 1 unit on under 95.5 on DK or 94.5 on Fanatics Sportsbook, but nothing lower than 94.5. This is a reverse-correlation play that jumps the odds as we are betting on Barkley going under (negative) while scoring a TD (positive). It’s not as far-fetched as you would assume and it really ties into the game script along with managing Barkley’s workload earlier in the season.

If you do not have access to Bet365 based on your state, you can still get Dotson alt-lines on Fanduel’s new feature “Your Way”. Dotson is the clear-cut WR3 and now has a full offseason in this Philadelphia offense after being traded just before the 2024 season. I’ll buy a bit of camp hype on Dotson, who’s been praised for learning more of the route tree and building a rapport with Jalen Hurts this offseason.

If Dallas loads up to stop Saquon, as we all assume they will, Philly should be able to make them pay with a deep shot to Dotson. He had catches last season of 27, 27, 36, and 19; if you exclude the last game of the season where they rested starters, he’s in the 3-4 target range. I can see that slightly upticking to 4-6 this season, and if that is the case, this line is wrong. 1u across the alt-line mini ladder. If you’re skeptical of the alt-lines, I still like his over 7.5 receiving yards for 1u, which is widely available.