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Hello Millions
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Christmas Day Week 17 2025 for Today, 12/25/25

Northwest StadiumNetflix
Cowboys
Cowboys
Today
Commanders
Commanders
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Last 5
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6-8-1Record4-11
7-8-0ATS Record5-10-0
10-5O/U Record8-7
Washington Commanders

Cowboys vs Commanders Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet
DAL Cowboys -6.5(-110)

Happy Christmas, Pickswise Nation! Santa Claus has gifted us 3 NFL games for this gracious day. Although they are lackluster affairs at best, football is still football, and we get things started with the Cowboys making a trip to Landover, Maryland to take on the Commanders. Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Chargers last Sunday, but Dak Prescott and company can still be expected to put on a show in this one. After all, this Dallas team knocked off last season’s Super Bowl teams in the space of 5 days — and after posting 244 passing yards and 2 touchdowns against that typically stingy LA defense last week, Prescott should be in for a big day against the Commanders. Washington is allowing the most passing yards per attempt in the NFL (8.3) and Prescott pinned 3 touchdowns on them in a 44-22 decimation last time they met.

While this matchup is at Northwest Stadium, the Commanders will likely have to start Josh Johnson in this one with Marcus Mariota dealing with a couple of injuries. Johnson could have some success given that the Cowboys actually allow the second-most passing yards per attempt in the league, but it’s hard to see him getting this offense to be fully competitive given how underwhelming it has been for most of the year. The Cowboys’ offense has remained strong all season long, and I expect them to move the chains a lot easier than the Commanders. Look for Dallas to win this one by at least a touchdown, and probably a fair bit more.

Cowboys vs Commanders best bet: Cowboys -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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Cowboys vs Commanders Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick
Under 50.5(-110)

In terms of a total, it’s really tough to know whether to lean under or over. On the one hand, you have a ferocious Cowboys offense facing a turnstile Commanders defense. On the other, you have a Washington offense down to its third-string QB facing a Dallas defense that has steadily improved from earlier in the season since signing Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson. Williams is questionable for this one, but the Cowboys D has shown me just enough to go low on this one.

While the Cowboys allow the second-most passing yards per attempt in the NFL, I don’t expect Josh Johnson to be the guy to fully take advantage of that. He can be expected to hand the ball off a ton to Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, which should be met by Dallas’ solid defensive front while also keeping the clock moving. Washington’s offense has posted the seventh-fewest passing yards and seventh-fewest passing TDs in the NFL, and it’s hard to see that improving much with Johnson under center.

Prescott and the Cowboys should have their way with the Commanders’ defense, but even if they do, there’s no guarantee they go over this number. The Commanders lost 29-18 to the Eagles last week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar in this one. Expect the Dallas defense to step up just enough to keep this total under 50 points.

Cowboys vs Commanders pick: Under 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick
T. McLaurin (WSH) - Over 48.5 rec yds(-110)

Washington’s offense should be in on the fun, as well. The Cowboys’ defense improved with its trade-deadline acquisitions, but they are still atrocious against the pass. Dallas is dead last in passing defense at 257.8 yards allowed per game and second-to-last (better than only the Commanders) in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.2).

The home team should be able to capitalize on Thursday regardless of who is under center. Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) is questionable; it would be Josh Johnson if Mariota can’t go. Neither guy is anything special, but both are well-traveled backups who should be able to carve up a porous Dallas secondary. McLaurin is a probable beneficiary. The former Ohio State standout has amassed at least 48 yards in 7 of his last 8 games, including 53 or more on 5 occasions. McLaurin caught 7 of 14 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown during a Week 13 loss to Denver, which boasts arguably the best defense in the entire league.

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Ricky Dimon
Player Passing Yards Pick
D. Prescott (DAL) - Over 273.5 pass yds(-110)

These 2 defenses are absolutely horrendous against the pass. A total of 66 points were scored in the first head-to-head matchup this season and something similar could be the result on Thursday as both teams will likely hit the airwaves with alacrity. Nobody in the entire NFL is giving up more yards per pass attempt than Washington (8.3).

Prescott threw for a modest 264 yards when the Cowboys destroyed the Commanders 44-22 in October, but it was such a blowout that he attempted just 30 passes and completed 21. I expect a more competitive game and therefore a higher volume for Prescott. Heck, both of these teams are out of it – so they might as well have some fun and air it out early and often, no matter what the scoreboard says. The Mississippi State product has passed for at least 294 yards in 4 of the past 5 games, a stretch that includes 3 performances with 320 yards or more.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
T. McLaurin (WAS) to score a TD(+210)

It’s been nothing short of a disaster of a season for Terry McLaurin and the Commanders. Kudos to McLaurin, though, as he looks to finish his 7th season strong. Last Saturday against the Eagles, McLaurin played 83% of the offensive snaps – His most since Week 2. Granted, he has played in just 8 games this season, but he’s one of the top receivers in the game at full strength.

The hurdle here is the quarterback play for Washington. Marcus Mariota has yet to practice this week, so we’re looking at Josh Johnson under center on Christmas. But the Cowboys likely play from behind in this game and should be looking McLaurin’s way a ton with Zach Ertz out for the season.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
K. Turpin (DAL) to score a TD(+320)

We have to get creative for our next TD scorer best bet in Cowboys-Commanders. 5 players have shorter odds than 2/1 with a total of 50.5 points. Both defenses are putrid, while the Cowboys offense is loaded. So, we’re going to avoid Janvonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, and target KaVontae Turpin, who the Cowboys continue to use in different ways. His 4 targets last week were his highest since Week 7, while also getting 2 touches in the backfield.

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Andrew Wilsher

Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Same Game Parlay

Point Spread
DAL Cowboys -7.0
Game Totals
Under 51.0
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
J. Williams (DAL) to score a TD

Dallas Cowboys -7 over Washington Commanders (-110)

For the first leg of our Cowboys vs Commanders Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the visitors by laying the points. Each of these teams has struggled for consistency on a week-to-week basis, as the Dallas defense has proven to be a massive weakness, while the Commanders have struggled on both sides of the ball due to injuries and poor play.

However, even though it’s hard to trust the Cowboys on the road, the Commanders are clearly handicapped with third-string quarterback Josh Johnson at the controls of an offense that is already struggling. On the other side, the Cowboys offense is one of the better units in the NFC, and Dallas should see plenty of success against this porous Washington pass defense. 

Under 50.5 (-105)

This is an instance where I’m bullish on a lower-scoring game than what the market is projecting, and it all starts with Washington’s situation on offense. Even though the Cowboys defense has struggled, the secondary is catching a major break by facing a Commanders passing attack that likely won’t have much juice with Johnson under center. Conversely, the Cowboys offense is still potent, but Dallas has leaned on its ground attack moreso in recent weeks compared what we saw earlier in the season. This number is just under the key of 51, but we’ll rely on Dallas to sit on the ball late in the game and grind this game out on the road.

Javonte Williams anytime touchdown scorer (-175)

The Dallas run game has been a lot better than what most were expecting heading into this season, and Javonte Williams has found himself within this Cowboys offense. The lead running back has racked up 10 touchdowns on the season, and his previous matchup against the Commanders could certainly be instructive for how Thursday’s meeting could shake out. Williams tallied 19 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting back on October 19, and it would be hard to see Williams not getting at least a handful of carries around the goal line in this one.

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Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Passing Yards Pick
D. Prescott (DAL) - Over 273.5 pass yds(-110)

These 2 defenses are absolutely horrendous against the pass. A total of 66 points were scored in the first head-to-head matchup this season and something similar could be the result on Thursday as both teams will likely hit the airwaves with alacrity. Nobody in the entire NFL is giving up more yards per pass attempt than Washington (8.3).

Prescott threw for a modest 264 yards when the Cowboys destroyed the Commanders 44-22 in October, but it was such a blowout that he attempted just 30 passes and completed 21. I expect a more competitive game and therefore a higher volume for Prescott. Heck, both of these teams are out of it – so they might as well have some fun and air it out early and often, no matter what the scoreboard says. The Mississippi State product has passed for at least 294 yards in 4 of the past 5 games, a stretch that includes 3 performances with 320 yards or more.

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Ricky Dimon
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
T. McLaurin (WAS) to score a TD(+210)

It’s been nothing short of a disaster of a season for Terry McLaurin and the Commanders. Kudos to McLaurin, though, as he looks to finish his 7th season strong. Last Saturday against the Eagles, McLaurin played 83% of the offensive snaps – His most since Week 2. Granted, he has played in just 8 games this season, but he’s one of the top receivers in the game at full strength.

The hurdle here is the quarterback play for Washington. Marcus Mariota has yet to practice this week, so we’re looking at Josh Johnson under center on Christmas. But the Cowboys likely play from behind in this game and should be looking McLaurin’s way a ton with Zach Ertz out for the season.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick
T. McLaurin (WSH) - Over 48.5 rec yds(-110)

Washington’s offense should be in on the fun, as well. The Cowboys’ defense improved with its trade-deadline acquisitions, but they are still atrocious against the pass. Dallas is dead last in passing defense at 257.8 yards allowed per game and second-to-last (better than only the Commanders) in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.2).

The home team should be able to capitalize on Thursday regardless of who is under center. Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) is questionable; it would be Josh Johnson if Mariota can’t go. Neither guy is anything special, but both are well-traveled backups who should be able to carve up a porous Dallas secondary. McLaurin is a probable beneficiary. The former Ohio State standout has amassed at least 48 yards in 7 of his last 8 games, including 53 or more on 5 occasions. McLaurin caught 7 of 14 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown during a Week 13 loss to Denver, which boasts arguably the best defense in the entire league.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
K. Turpin (DAL) to score a TD(+320)

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Featured In

Top Trends
Point Spread

The Commanders have failed to cover in 9 of their 13 games this season.

Money Line

The Commanders have lost 17 of their last 20 home games against teams with losing records.

Game Totals

The Commanders' last 3 home games against the Cowboys have gone over the Total.

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