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Hello Millions
Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football on NFL Christmas Day Week 17 2025 for Thursday, 12/25/25

Arrowhead StadiumAmazon Prime Video
Broncos
Broncos
Thu Dec 25
Chiefs
Chiefs
WWWWL
Last 5
WLLLL
12-3Record6-9
6-9-0ATS Record5-10-0
7-8O/U Record4-11
Kansas City Chiefs

Broncos vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
DEN Broncos -12.5(-115)

Judging by their Week 16 showing, the Chiefs are already done with this season. One week after Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and the Chiefs’ playoff hopes were destroyed, Andy Reid’s team didn’t show any fire. Initially, they were led by journeyman quarterback Gardner Minshew, who left the game after throwing just 8 passes in what looked like another torn ACL. In stepped 3-year bench warmer Chris Oladokun, and the results were rather predictable: Kansas City gained just 9 first downs and 133 total yards. And it’s not like they were playing against an all-world defense. Stars like Travis Kelce (1 catch for 6 yards) and Xavier Worthy (2 catches for 41 yards) had no impact on the game.

KC’s defense didn’t have the same injury problems but you wouldn’t know that based on Tennessee’s producton. One of the worst offenses in the NFL managed to post 22 first downs and nearly 400 total yards (376). It was a sad, jarring performance from a team that’s been to the Super Bowl in 3 straight seasons.

Of course, their AFC West counterparts didn’t do much better last Sunday. The Broncos have become known for their 4th-quarter comebacks, made famous in big wins over the Eagles and Giants this season, but there was no such storybook ending in this one. The Jaguars came to Denver with a great game plan and executed it perfectly. It was a startling sight, particularly in how they handled Denver’s defense. Jacksonville went 8-15 on 3rd-down conversions and piled up 22 first downs in Week 16, going up 31-17 entering the 4th quarter after taking advantage of some bad Broncos’ turnovers. The Jags’ defense deserves credit, too. They rushed Bo Nix and forced him into 2 errant mistakes (1 interception, 1 fumble) that shifted the game’s energy, and they kept the Broncos to just 5-14 on 3rd down. They also prevented Nix’s typical late-game heroics.

Last Sunday wasn’t the Broncos’ squad we’re used to seeing on either side of the ball, but Week 17 presents a great opportunity for redemption. The Chiefs have no one else to turn to at quarterback, which means it’s likely Oladokun will get another start. Normally, we’d express some caution here since it’s still a divisional rivalry and Denver’s on the road, but this is an outlier. The Broncos are still competing for the #1 seed and the top spot in their division. On a short week and with nothing to play for, we don’t feel good about Kansas City’s chances.

Broncos vs Chiefs prediction: Broncos -12.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

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Chris R. Farley
Game Totals Pick
Under 37.5(-120)

Not to spoil the thesis statement right away, but we don’t see where points are coming from in this contest. Of course, if one is expecting more points, it must be from Denver’s side. Just 4 days after a humbling loss to the Jaguars, Denver is mandated to travel to Kansas City on Christmas, probably the last place they’d want to be following a loss. Still, they’ll have an opportunity to battle a Chiefs defense that completely capitulated last Sunday, making the lowly Titans look like one of the NFL’s premier offenses (26 points, nearly 400 yards of offense). But Kansas City‘s rich history suggests its defense will bounce back, and it’s not like Arrowhead has been kind to its enemy before. Last time Denver visited Kansas City, the Broncos gained only 260 total yards and scored just 14 points. 

On the other side, the home team is in a very unfortunate situation. Gardner Minshew seems to have a serious knee or leg injury. Early reports suggest it’s a torn ACL. That means an extremely inexperienced Chris Oladokun will lead the Chiefs’ offence against an angry Denver defense that permitted far too much success to the opposing offense last weekend. The Chiefs’ advantage is that they are coached by Andy Reid, one of football’s true offensive masterminds, and that Denver has very little tape on their green quarterback. Regardless, Denver will look to rattle Oladokun and they are pretty skilled in this area, ranked second overall in sack percentage. 

Perhaps the only purely positive element for an over bettor is that Kansas City is forecasted to be unseasonably warm on Thursday, in the 60s and clear all day. But there’s yet another asterisk. Wind speeds will increase as the night approaches, which will make life even more difficult for each thrower. This game has 17-3 written all over it.

Broncos vs Chiefs TNF pick: Under 37.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 36.5.

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Chris R. Farley
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Chris Farley

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
@FarleyBets
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Top Trends
Game Totals

7 of the Chiefs' last 9 home matchups against the Broncos have stayed under the Total.

Point Spread

The Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games.

Money Line

The Chiefs have won 12 of their last 15 divisional matchups.

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