Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Thursday Night Football on NFL Christmas Day Week 17 2025 for Today, 12/25/25

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Kansas City Chiefs

Broncos vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
DEN Broncos -12.5(-115)

Judging by their Week 16 showing, the Chiefs are already done with this season. One week after Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and the Chiefs’ playoff hopes were destroyed, Andy Reid’s team didn’t show any fire. Initially, they were led by journeyman quarterback Gardner Minshew, who left the game after throwing just 8 passes in what looked like another torn ACL. In stepped 3-year bench warmer Chris Oladokun, and the results were rather predictable: Kansas City gained just 9 first downs and 133 total yards. And it’s not like they were playing against an all-world defense. Stars like Travis Kelce (1 catch for 6 yards) and Xavier Worthy (2 catches for 41 yards) had no impact on the game.

KC’s defense didn’t have the same injury problems but you wouldn’t know that based on Tennessee’s producton. One of the worst offenses in the NFL managed to post 22 first downs and nearly 400 total yards (376). It was a sad, jarring performance from a team that’s been to the Super Bowl in 3 straight seasons.

Of course, their AFC West counterparts didn’t do much better last Sunday. The Broncos have become known for their 4th-quarter comebacks, made famous in big wins over the Eagles and Giants this season, but there was no such storybook ending in this one. The Jaguars came to Denver with a great game plan and executed it perfectly. It was a startling sight, particularly in how they handled Denver’s defense. Jacksonville went 8-15 on 3rd-down conversions and piled up 22 first downs in Week 16, going up 31-17 entering the 4th quarter after taking advantage of some bad Broncos’ turnovers. The Jags’ defense deserves credit, too. They rushed Bo Nix and forced him into 2 errant mistakes (1 interception, 1 fumble) that shifted the game’s energy, and they kept the Broncos to just 5-14 on 3rd down. They also prevented Nix’s typical late-game heroics.

Last Sunday wasn’t the Broncos’ squad we’re used to seeing on either side of the ball, but Week 17 presents a great opportunity for redemption. The Chiefs have no one else to turn to at quarterback, which means it’s likely Oladokun will get another start. Normally, we’d express some caution here since it’s still a divisional rivalry and Denver’s on the road, but this is an outlier. The Broncos are still competing for the #1 seed and the top spot in their division. On a short week and with nothing to play for, we don’t feel good about Kansas City’s chances.

Broncos vs Chiefs prediction: Broncos -12.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

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Player Rushing+Receiving Yards Pick
I. Pacheco (KC) - 50+ rush+rec yds(-115)

Chris Oladokun is starting under center for the Chiefs Thursday night after back up Gardner Minshew exited Week 16 early. I’m slightly off put by the spread and total of this game with a double digit spread and total under 40 points. I’m picturing a neutral game script for KC who will make a few surprise plays on defense and special teams while playing with nothing to lose. Pacheco is coming of a 73% snap count, second highest of the season and I expect his big play ability will be something Andy Reid leans on in both the rushing and passing game.

Given the injuries that Kansas City has sustained in recent weeks, it’s no surprise that Pacheco tallied 7 targets in the passing game and 7 total red zone rush attempts over the last two games. It’s clear the Chiefs want to see what they have in him over these last two weeks and there is likely a reason he hasn’t been extended past his rookie deal. I’m expecting 10-13 carries from Pacheco and 4-5 targets in the pass game. He is an angry runner with big play ability, so this number is extremely beatable if he can break off at least one big play of 10+ in either rushing or passing game.

Game Totals Pick
Under 37.5(-120)

Not to spoil the thesis statement right away, but we don’t see where points are coming from in this contest. Of course, if one is expecting more points, it must be from Denver’s side. Just 4 days after a humbling loss to the Jaguars, Denver is mandated to travel to Kansas City on Christmas, probably the last place they’d want to be following a loss. Still, they’ll have an opportunity to battle a Chiefs defense that completely capitulated last Sunday, making the lowly Titans look like one of the NFL’s premier offenses (26 points, nearly 400 yards of offense). But Kansas City‘s rich history suggests its defense will bounce back, and it’s not like Arrowhead has been kind to its enemy before. Last time Denver visited Kansas City, the Broncos gained only 260 total yards and scored just 14 points. 

On the other side, the home team is in a very unfortunate situation. Gardner Minshew seems to have a serious knee or leg injury. Early reports suggest it’s a torn ACL. That means an extremely inexperienced Chris Oladokun will lead the Chiefs’ offence against an angry Denver defense that permitted far too much success to the opposing offense last weekend. The Chiefs’ advantage is that they are coached by Andy Reid, one of football’s true offensive masterminds, and that Denver has very little tape on their green quarterback. Regardless, Denver will look to rattle Oladokun and they are pretty skilled in this area, ranked second overall in sack percentage. 

Perhaps the only purely positive element for an over bettor is that Kansas City is forecasted to be unseasonably warm on Thursday, in the 60s and clear all day. But there’s yet another asterisk. Wind speeds will increase as the night approaches, which will make life even more difficult for each thrower. This game has 17-3 written all over it.

Broncos vs Chiefs TNF pick: Under 37.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 36.5.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
DEN Broncos D/ST to score a TD(+475)

The Broncos’ formidable defense was finally exposed last week by no other than Trevor Lawrence, as he recorded 4 total touchdowns and no turnovers. He was hit hard on numerous dropbacks, but got up each time, but Chiefs 3rd string QB Chris Oladokun likely can’t say the same. Though a great opportunity for the practice squad player, this is a brutal matchup for someone making his 1st career start on a short week.

The Chiefs’ offense failed to move the ball with any success last week versus the Titans, and I can’t see that changing in this one. With Kansas City listed as nearly 2-touchdown underdogs at home, Oladokun likely finds himself in bad field position and a pass-happy game script makes this play a full-go for what should be a motivated Broncos pass rush and secondary.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
I. Pacheco (KC) to score a TD(+450)

Christmas Day calls for another longshot for our Broncos vs Chiefs TD scorer best bets. Isiah Pacheco, along with other Chiefs veterans, is ready for their first non-playoff run in their career. Until then, they’ll have to get through the Broncos and then the Raiders in Week 18. Travis Kelce has the shortest odds of any Chiefs skill player to find the endzone at +450 on BetMGM.

Kareem Hunt then follows that up, with Pacheco having longer odds than Hunt, even though he saw 73% of the action last week compared to Hunt’s 24%. It’s a shot in the dark backing a Chiefs with an implied team total of 12 points, the lowest of any team for Week 17, but Pacheco finds our card for Christmas.

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
Read more about Chris Farley

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread
DEN Broncos -12.5
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
C. Sutton (DEN) to score a TD
Player Receiving Yards
T. Franklin (DEN) - 50+ rec yds

Denver Broncos -12.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (-120)

These 2 division rivals squared off in Week 11, which is when the Chiefs’ 2025 campaign came to an end for all intents and purposes. Patrick Mahomes and company suffered a 22-19 loss, dropping to 5-5 as Denver improved to 9-2. Improbably, things have actually managed to get worse for Kansas City since that result. Head coach Andy Reid’s team is mathematically eliminated at 6-9 and Mahomes is out for the year with a torn ACL. In fact, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew also tore an ACL – leaving Chris Oladokun (who?!?!) to run the offense. You can hardly blame the Chiefs for waving the white flag, which was apparent during last Sunday’s 26-9 blowout loss at the hands of the lowly Titans.

The Broncos, on the other hand, won 11 games in a row before falling to Jacksonville this past week. With a lot at stake and a loss in the rearview mirror, you know Denver is going to come out with fire on Christmas Day. This should be a complete beatdown.

Courtland Sutton to score a touchdown (+140)

Sutton is coming down the stretch of a stellar season with 69 receptions for 972 yards and 7 touchdowns. The SMU product has found the endzone in 3 of the past 4 games. During this stretch, he has gained at least 62 yards on every occasion, including performances of 113 and 86 yards the past 2 weeks. There is no reason to think that Sutton will slow down against the Chiefs, whom Nix torched for 295 yards on 24-of-37 passing in the previous head-to-head matchup.

Troy Franklin to record 50+ receiving yards (+220)

Franklin enjoyed a big outing against Kansas City in Week 11, leading his team in receiving with 4 catches on 8 targets for 84 yards. The former Oregon standout has been productive of late, too, with 85 and 66 yards over the past 2 weeks. He now faces a Chiefs defense that is surrendering 7.2 yards per pass attempt – 10th most in the NFL. With Pat Bryant likely out following the scary concussion he sustained last weekend, both Franklin and Sutton will have to shoulder even more of the pass-catching load on Thursday.

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Rushing+Receiving Yards Pick
I. Pacheco (KC) - 50+ rush+rec yds(-115)

Chris Oladokun is starting under center for the Chiefs Thursday night after back up Gardner Minshew exited Week 16 early. I’m slightly off put by the spread and total of this game with a double digit spread and total under 40 points. I’m picturing a neutral game script for KC who will make a few surprise plays on defense and special teams while playing with nothing to lose. Pacheco is coming of a 73% snap count, second highest of the season and I expect his big play ability will be something Andy Reid leans on in both the rushing and passing game.

Given the injuries that Kansas City has sustained in recent weeks, it’s no surprise that Pacheco tallied 7 targets in the passing game and 7 total red zone rush attempts over the last two games. It’s clear the Chiefs want to see what they have in him over these last two weeks and there is likely a reason he hasn’t been extended past his rookie deal. I’m expecting 10-13 carries from Pacheco and 4-5 targets in the pass game. He is an angry runner with big play ability, so this number is extremely beatable if he can break off at least one big play of 10+ in either rushing or passing game.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
DEN Broncos D/ST to score a TD(+475)

The Broncos’ formidable defense was finally exposed last week by no other than Trevor Lawrence, as he recorded 4 total touchdowns and no turnovers. He was hit hard on numerous dropbacks, but got up each time, but Chiefs 3rd string QB Chris Oladokun likely can’t say the same. Though a great opportunity for the practice squad player, this is a brutal matchup for someone making his 1st career start on a short week.

The Chiefs’ offense failed to move the ball with any success last week versus the Titans, and I can’t see that changing in this one. With Kansas City listed as nearly 2-touchdown underdogs at home, Oladokun likely finds himself in bad field position and a pass-happy game script makes this play a full-go for what should be a motivated Broncos pass rush and secondary.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
I. Pacheco (KC) to score a TD(+450)

Christmas Day calls for another longshot for our Broncos vs Chiefs TD scorer best bets. Isiah Pacheco, along with other Chiefs veterans, is ready for their first non-playoff run in their career. Until then, they’ll have to get through the Broncos and then the Raiders in Week 18. Travis Kelce has the shortest odds of any Chiefs skill player to find the endzone at +450 on BetMGM.

Kareem Hunt then follows that up, with Pacheco having longer odds than Hunt, even though he saw 73% of the action last week compared to Hunt’s 24%. It’s a shot in the dark backing a Chiefs with an implied team total of 12 points, the lowest of any team for Week 17, but Pacheco finds our card for Christmas.

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Game Totals

7 of the Chiefs' last 9 home matchups against the Broncos have stayed under the Total.

Point Spread

The Chiefs are 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games.

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The Chiefs have won 12 of their last 15 divisional matchups.

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