Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 13 2025 for Sunday, 11/30/25

Northwest StadiumNBC
Broncos
Broncos
Sun Nov 30
Commanders
Commanders
WWWWW
Last 5
LLLLL
9-2Record3-8
5-6-0ATS Record3-8-0
3-8O/U Record5-6
Washington Commanders

Broncos vs Commanders Best Bets

Point Spread PickBest Bet
DEN Broncos -6.5(-110)

The Broncos and Commanders are both coming off a bye week. They entered those bye weeks in completely different positions. Denver is riding as high as the mountains they’re from, currently on an eight-game winning streak with impressive victories over teams like the Texans, Chiefs, and Eagles. Their defense is highly rated, top-five in most categories and permitting just 17.5 points per game (3rd). Denver’s offense, although inconsistent, does enough, and they know how to finish games. The Broncos are second overall in fourth-quarter points, averaging 9.5 per game. In short, this is a team that knows how to win, which is all you need to make it deep into the playoffs. It doesn’t always equate against the spread; the Broncos are just 5-5-1 this season.

As of Wednesday, the Commanders aren’t sure if they’re getting back Jayden Daniels yet, but it’s starting to trend in that direction. Daniels has already expressed his desire to play, and if he does that clearly changes Washington’s potential. But even when the second-year quarterback was not in the game, the squad from DC just hasn’t been very good this season. They rank a respectable 12th in offensive EPA but a very lackluster 31st on defense. Part of that is due to injuries, most of it is due to an older roster with too many randomly assembled parts. Even Dan Quinn, whose expertise is defense, hasn’t helped solve that side of the ball. 

The allure of Daniels is enough to consider Washington here, but we’re concerned that they are running into a buzz saw. And frankly, The Commanders’ roster is nowhere near as talented as their opponent. They’re also even more pitiful against the spread, just 3-8 ATS this season. In every category, the visitors have the edge.

Broncos vs Commanders SNF best bet: Broncos -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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Broncos vs Commanders Pickswise Expert Predictions

Game Totals Pick
Under 43.5(-110)

When two defenses are as different as the Broncos and Commanders, it makes the game far tougher to project. In general, great defenses tend to decrease average totals, unsurprisingly, and that’s true, even if there’s only one elite defense on the field. For example, Browns’ games average 39.1 points, while Texans’ and Broncos’ games average 40.6. All three teams are top-four in defensive EPA. The Rams are the NFL’s #1 ranked defense by EPA metrics, putting up 44.1 points per game. They’re an outlier, though, since their offense is just as elite. In any case, NFL games average around 46 points per game, to our point, so Broncos’ games have been well below the norm. 

We have little to no trust that the Commanders, with or without Jayden Daniels, are going to soar at home on Sunday night. They average just 21.5 points per game, and we counted only four games where they faced a top-ten defense. This is a huge challenge.

The real concern is Washington’s defense, which allows 26.9 points per game (28th). It’s the reason why their 11 contests have averaged 47.5 points this season, slightly above the NFL norm, and it’s probably why Sunday night’s total isn’t even lower. But by all standards, the Broncos’ offense is a middling unit, 13th in overall EPA with numbers that qualify as league-average across the board. Landover, Maryland is forecasted to be rainy and cold, too. We think points will be tough to come by.

Broncos vs Commanders prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.

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Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.
Read more about Chris Farley
Top Trends
Game Totals

The Over is 12-7-1 for the Commanders' last 10 home games and the Broncos' last 10 on the road combined.

Money Line

The Broncos have won their last 3 road games, while the Commanders have lost 6 straight.

Point Spread

The Broncos have failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 trips as a favorite (2-7-1).

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