HomeNFLNFL PredictionsPackers vs Bears Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round

Packers vs Bears Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round for Saturday, 01/10/26

Updated: 8:53 AM ET Jan 10, 2026

Soldier FieldAmazon Prime Video

9-7-1

Packers

8:00 PM ETYesterday

11-6

Bears

Packers vs Bears Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

CHI Bears +1.5(-110)

Reasoning

The two oldest rivals in NFL history hook up in the playoffs for the 3rd time ever (1941 and 2010) on Saturday night at Soldier Field. Chicago (11-6) captured the NFC North title for the first time since 2018, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 11 of the final 15 games. Although the Bears lost a meaningless Week 18 game to the Lions, Chicago finished 6-2 at home with the first loss coming in the season-opening meltdown against Minnesota. The Bears posted a strong 11-5-1 ATS mark in head coach Ben Johnson’s first season, as the lone non-cover in a win occurred in the Week 10 comeback victory over the Giants.

Green Bay (9-7-1) stumbled to the finish line with 4 consecutive losses, though its biggest loss was arguably LB Micah Parsons tearing his ACL in the Week 15 setback at Denver. The game that cost the Packers the division title was the Week 16 meltdown at Chicago, blowing a 16-6 lead with 2 minutes remaining in regulation. The Bears scored 10 straight points to force overtime, then QB Caleb Williams connected with D.J. Moore on a 46-yard TD for the 22-16 triumph. Green Bay held off Chicago in the first matchup at Lambeau Field, 28-21 in Week 14, as the Packers are 4-2 against the Bears since Jordan Love took over at QB in 2023.

The Packers are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the playoffs with Love starting, all played on the road. Green Bay put together a 6-11 ATS mark this season, including a 1-5 ATS record as a road favorite. However, 4 of those non-covers as away chalk came when laying at least a touchdown. Chicago led the league with 23 interceptions and a +22 in the takeaway department. Love finished with 6 interceptions, and 1 of those picks came in the home win over the Bears.

Chicago is seeking its first playoff win since 2010 against Seattle; the Bears lost to the Packers in the NFC Championship that year. Green Bay hasn’t been sharp over the last month, and although the money has moved in favor of the Packers, let’s grab the Bears as a home underdog.

Packers vs Bears prediction: Chicago Bears +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.

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Player Rushing Attempts Pick

K. Monangai (CHI) - Over 9.5 rush atts(-115)

Reasoning

Kyle Monangai had a stellar regular season for a rookie backup running back. He finished top 5 in rushing yards amongst rookies, while only totaling 17 touches through his first 4 games. He limped towards the finish line after a solid outing versus the Packers in Week 14, specifically last week, where he ran the ball just 6 times in a negative game script — his fewest touches since Week 6. Nonetheless, we’re backing Monangai to be a focal point in the Bears’ offense against a Packers defense that has allowed 198 rushing yards per game over their last 3 — the most in the NFL during that span by nearly 20 yards.

Monangai gives the Bears a different pace back than D’Andre Swift, who has had a career year for the Bears. The Bears’ defense has failed to put Monangai and the Chicago offense in positive game scripts over the last 2 weeks, limiting Monangai’s rushing attempts. They were in a shootout against the 49ers 2 weeks ago, and followed that up going down 16-0 to the Lions last week, resulting in Monangai carrying the ball 6 times. But with Packers vs Bears having the 3rd-lowest total of the slate and priced as a pick ’em, the game should stay in the Bears’ comfort of running the ball with their 2-headed monster.

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Game Totals Pick

Under 45.5(-110)

Reasoning

Neither of these rivals put up convincing total records either way, as Green Bay went 9-8 to the over and Chicago posted a 9-8 mark to the under. The Packers hit the over in 6 of their first 7 road games before consecutive unders to close the season. It’s easy to throw out Week 18 at Minnesota, as QB Jordan Love sat out a 16-3 loss, but the Pack stayed under in the Week 15 overtime loss at Chicago, too. The Bears rallied late to force overtime and stun the Packers, 22-16, as the total of 44.5 was never threatened.

Chicago hit the over in the season-opening loss to Minnesota, but the Bears cashed the under in 6 of the final 7 games played at Soldier Field. The Bears yielded 19 or fewer points in each of the last 3 home outings, while giving up 20 or less points in 6 of the final 8 games. Packers star LB Micah Parsons tore up his knee in the Week 15 loss at Denver, but Green Bay gave up 22 points or fewer points in 2 of the final 3 games. The under has hit in each of the Packers’ last 2 playoff games, including in last season’s 22-10 defeat at Philadelphia with a 46 total.

The Bears were feast or famine on the defensive side, intercepting a league-high 23 passes, but ranking 29th in yards allowed at 361.8 per game. Chicago gave up 134 yards per game on the ground, but Green Bay sat in the middle of the league with 119.8 rushing yards per contest. The 45.5 total is the highest for the 3 matchups this season, with the over of 43.5 hitting in Green Bay and the under of 44 cashing in Chicago. Let’s look at the under here for a grind-it-out Wild Card matchup between the Packers and Bears.

Packers vs Bears pick: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

R. Doubs (GB) to score a TD(+235)

Reasoning

Doubs has scored 6 touchdowns this season, including 2 in the past 5 games. The Nevada product had his 2nd-best game of the 2025 campaign against this same Chicago opponent on December 20, when he caught 5 of 6 targets for 84 yards and a TD. Doubs is no stranger to playoff success, either. In 2023, he made 6 catches for 151 yards and 1 touchdown in the wild-card round against Dallas before making 4 receptions for 83 yards in a divisional-round loss to San Francisco. Doubs now faces a Bears defense that allowed the 5th-most passing touchdowns (32) during the regular season.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

D. Swift (CHI) to score a TD(+140)

Reasoning

Swift did not find the end zone in either regular-season matchup with Green Bay, but he is due to reach paydirt against the Packers this time around. After all, the former Georgia standout has scored 4 touchdowns in the last 4 games. You could argue that it’s a surprise when he doesn’t score a TD, so getting him all the way at +140 represents great value. Green Bay ranked in the middle of the pack in rushing touchdowns given up during the regular season (15). It’s a solid defense, but it’s not like the unit is impossible to score against – especially not with Micah Parsons out for the year.

Kevin Rogers

Show Bio

Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.

@RogersPicks

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

GB Packers -1.0

Game Totals

Under 44.5

Player Receptions

L. Burden III (CHI) - Over 3.5 recs

Reasoning

Green Bay Packers -1 over Chicago Bears (-110)

Even though they ended the season with a division title, I think the love for the Bears has gotten a little out of hand given their statistical profile this season. Green Bay should have some positive regression coming against a Chicago team that has been unsustainably good in fourth quarters this season. In fact, the Bears have picked up 6 wins this season when trailing with 2 minutes remaining in the game. It’s also worth mentioning that Chicago has played a fairly easy schedule, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has also been at his best against weaker defenses, which he won’t see in this matchup against a stout Packers defense, even without star linebacker Micah Parsons in the lineup.

On the other side, the Packers offense should relish an opportunity to take on this beleaguered Bears defense, a unit that ranks 23rd in EPA per play and 26th in success rate allowed on the year. Both teams are very familiar with each other given their proximity as division rivals, but when we take Green Bay’s playoff experience and the advantages that Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur’s offense should hold over a struggling Bears defense into consideration, it’s hard for me to look anywhere but Green Bay in this spot.

Under 44.5 (-108)

From a historical perspective, playoff games that take place outdoors tend to be lower-scoring affairs, as the Under is hitting at a 68% clip in games of this nature dating back to 2004. It’s no surprise that offenses are more likely to be more deliberate and cautious in an elimination game setting, while defenses tend to hold an advantage in the colder temperatures that we see in most outdoor playoff games. Look for a similar story to play out in the Windy City on Saturday, especially since temperatures are expected to be frigid, to go along with sustained wind gusts of nearly 15 miles per hour. With that in mind, I’m looking for both sides to start slow and ease their way into this elimination game, making the Under my preferred wager on the game total.

Luther Burden III (CHI) over 3.5 receptions (+100)

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III has been a welcome sight for a Bears offense that really needed a spark in the passing game heading into the season. The Missouri product has slowly grown into his role within this offense over the last couple of months, and the recent results have been rock solid, with Burden clearing this reception prop number in 4 of his previous 5 games heading into this one. The rookie has established a good rapport with Williams, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the rookie quarterback targeted Burden on some key downs in his first high-pressure playoff start as an NFL quarterback. Let’s grab this prop at plus-money odds while we still can and hopefully land a winner on our Packers vs Bears SGP.

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Caleb Wilfinger

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Rushing Attempts Pick

K. Monangai (CHI) - Over 9.5 rush atts(-115)

Reasoning

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

R. Doubs (GB) to score a TD(+235)

Reasoning

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

D. Swift (CHI) to score a TD(+140)

Reasoning

Featured In

Parlay Pick

4:30 PM ETYesterday

Saturday's NFL Wild Card parlay

SGP

8:00 PM ETYesterday

Packers vs Bears Same Game Parlay

Top Trends

Point Spread

The Packers have covered the spread in only 3 of their 9 road games this season.

Money Line

The Packers lost their last 4 games in the regular season.

Game Totals

The 2 regular-season meetings between these teams this season produced 49 and 38 points.

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