HomeNFLNFL PredictionsHouston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14 2025

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 14 2025 for Sunday, 12/07/25

Updated: 6:18 AM ET Dec 03, 2025

Arrowhead StadiumNBC

Texans

8:20 PM ETSun Dec 7

Chiefs

LWWWW	Last 5	WLLWL
7-5	Record	6-6
6-6-0	ATS Record	5-7-0
3-9	O/U Record	4-8

Texans vs Chiefs Best Bets

Game Totals PickBest Bet

Under 42.5(-110)

Reasoning

Unsurprisingly The Texans’ defense ranks 1st overall in opponent points (16.5) and yards (265.7) per game, and they’re top-two on preventing third down conversions (33.77%). Needless to say, the Chiefs’ offense will face challenges on Sunday night. Overall Kansas City still qualifies as a top-tier operation, ranking #1 in overall EPA metrics, including top-4 marks in EPA per pass and EPA per rush. Those metrics are mostly due to a generational quarterback talent and one of the greatest playcallers in NFL history, a duo that’s been at the top since they joined forces seven years ago. But the Chiefs are not without their flaws.

Mahomes is getting sacked more than he ever has in his career, 27 times in just 12 games. Against good defenses he’s also been limited, throwing for just 240 yards per game and a lowly 61% completion percentage against the Chargers, Eagles, and Broncos. The Texans’ defense is the best or one of the best in nearly every conceivable metric against the pass, including a #1 rank in defensive EPA per pass and top-three marks in opponent yards per pass (6.3) and completion percentage (58.4%). It doesn’t help that the Chiefs’ offensive line, which has grossly underperformed this year, is all banged up. Three out of five linemen are questionable, two are trending in the wrong direction. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been a middling operation all season, ranked 15th in yards per rush (4.4). Houston is just as stingy in run-defense, too (3rd in opponent rush yards per game).

We haven’t talked much about the Texans’ offense because we don’t believe we need to. CJ Stroud has been good, not great, and as a group they average 21.9 points per game (21st). At Arrowhead Stadium on a cold, blustery night, we don’t like their chances to overperform against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, especially after their poor outing last week. There’s only one way we can look here.

Texans vs Chiefs best bet: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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Texans vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

HOU Texans +3.5(-115)

Reasoning

Thirteen weeks into the season and most NFL pundits wouldn’t have guessed that the Texans would have the better record. At 7-5, Houston is again a threat in the AFC South, since the Colts have stumbled recently (lost three of their past four), including last Sunday’s loss to the very same Texans. That means there will be no lack of focus or effort for a Texans’ squad that’s playing their best football of the season entering Week 14.

Houston has won four straight and it’s mostly because of their defense. At this point they need no introduction, but it’s not a stretch to say that Houston’s defense is the best the NFL has to offer, a unit that’s allowed more than 300 yards just three times this season.

The Texans’ offense has done enough, averaging 338 yards per contest during their four-game winning streak. Stoic performances by Davis Mills and last Sunday from a returning CJ Stroud provide the Texans’ with enough production every week, considering their defense always limits the enemy offense. Rookie running back Woody Marks, who’s getting more touches every week (19 carries for 64 yards in Week 13) has provided more consistency on the ground, too.

Kansas City is getting maligned by the media again and it’s for a good reason. Although Patrick Mahomes’ magic is always prevalent and at times the Chiefs’ offense looks like it always has, it’s reminding us more of Josh Allen’s situation (and not in a good way). Mahomes has to do too much to keep his offense afloat, a group that’s simply not as talented and not as steady as former iterations. That’s especially true up front. Mahomes has been sacked three or more times in his past five starts. Kansas City’s defense is struggling too. They rank 20th in total defensive EPA and allowed Dak Prescott’s offense to drop 457 yards on them last week. Houston is not Dallas, but there’s certainly cause for concern in Chiefs-land. At 6-6, no team is on alert, but they have a favorable schedule (three home games and road spots at TEN/LV) remaining.

Andy Reid’s Chiefs are notoriously buttoned up in December, going 4-0 in three out of five previous seasons (the other two: 3-1, 1-3). But this isn’t the same Chiefs’ team, certainly not according to nearly every metric and qualifier. Houston’s first-class defense is enough to keep them in this game, even if their offense mostly sputters.

Texans vs Chiefs SNF prediction: Texans +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

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