Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 09/07/25

Each of these teams went 10-7 and won a first-round playoff game last year, but oddsmakers have the Los Angeles Rams as a solid 3-point favorite over the Houston Texans here for their Week 1 matchup. I get some of the reasons to be skeptical of Houston, but that’s way too many points for me here, considering the Rams have plenty of question marks of their own. Matthew Stafford has barely been seen or heard from all offseason, and even though he’s apparently going to start here, there’s no way he’s at 100 percent physically after barely practicing all training camp. And the Rams also don’t have much of a home-field advantage to speak of.

CJ Stroud had his ups and downs last year, but people have been way too quick to forget how electric he was as a rookie. A tiny bit of a sophomore slump isn’t anything to panic about, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he takes a 3rd-year leap and again looks like one of the league’s best quarterbacks. The Texans have a new OC now in Nick Caley, and it’s clear that Stroud and old OC Bobby Slowik just didn’t see eye to eye.

Los Angeles made somewhat of a splash by bringing in Davante Adams this offseason, but he’ll turn 33 this season and I’m not sure how much of a difference maker he is at this stage of his career. I wouldn’t consider him an upgrade over Cooper Kupp, who they let walk. Their O-line is so-so and the defense is still very young. I like the Texans both on the point spread and the money line here.

Texans vs Rams prediction: Texans +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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I also like the Under a lot in this spot. Matthew Stafford has been dealing with nagging injuries all offseason, and was barely seen at training camp. He certainly isn’t 100 percent, and at 37 with a bad back, it’s fair to be concerned. Houston’s defense closed last year really strong, intercepting Justin Herbert 4 times in the first round of the playoffs before holding the Chiefs to just 212 yards of total offense in the Divisional Round. To build on that momentum, they brought in vets like CJ Gardner-Johnson and Sheldon Rankins this offseason.

On the other hand, the Texans’ offense is a little bit uncertain, as they’re still dealing with the fallout from Tank Dell’s devastating injury last year, which is likely to keep him out this whole season. Houston added Christian Kirk to help replace him, but Kirk is now reportedly likely to miss this game due to a hamstring injury. That’s going to leave just Nico Collins and not too much else at Stroud’s disposal on Sunday, and I think this one could be a pretty low-scoring affair as a result.

Texans vs Rams pick: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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