HomeNFLNFL PredictionsTexans vs Patriots Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Divisional Round

Texans vs Patriots Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Divisional Round for Sunday, 01/18/26

Updated: 5:17 AM ET Jan 15, 2026

Gillette StadiumESPN

Texans

3:00 PM ETSun Jan 18

Patriots

WWWWW	Last 5	LWWWW
13-5	Record	15-3
10-8-0	ATS Record	13-5-0
6-12	O/U Record	11-7

Texans vs Patriots Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

HOU Texans +3.0(+100)

Reasoning

Houston heads to the northeast for a second straight week after knocking out Pittsburgh in Monday’s Wild Card round, 30-6. The Texans cashed as 2.5-point favorites after opening things up in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Steelers, 23-0 to break away from a 7-6 advantage. Now, the Texans are flipped to a short underdog against the AFC East champion Patriots, who also pulled away late from the Chargers in a 16-3 triumph. New England led Los Angeles, 6-3 at the half until QB Drake Maye hooked up with former Charger Hunter Henry for the game’s lone TD in the fourth quarter to send L.A. to 0-3 in the playoffs with Justin Herbert at QB.

We’ll see if New England’s offense can score on Houston’s defense, which led the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) and gave up 183.5 passing yards per contest. The Patriots posted a solid 12-5 ATS mark in the regular season, followed up by the cover as 3.5-point favorites over the Chargers. Houston picked up its 10th straight win against Pittsburgh since losing to eventual AFC top-seed Denver at home in Week 9. The Texans have won and covered in the past four opportunities in the underdog role, including victories over the Chargers, Bills, and Chiefs.

Houston routed New England last season, 41-21 at Gillette Stadium, as Maye threw for 243 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud looks to overcome his five fumbles against the Steelers, as he posted at least 240 passing yards in three of four road games since returning from his concussion in November. The Patriots have won 11 consecutive games as a favorite since getting stunned in the season opener by the Raiders. Houston’s defense has been exceptional this season and as long as Stroud can hold onto the ball, the Texans are a strong look here as an underdog.

Texans vs Patriots prediction: Texans +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 41.0(-110)

Reasoning

Both Houston and New England easily finished Under the total in their Wild Card victories. Neither team yielded a TD, as the Texans gave up a pair of field goals to the Steelers, while the Patriots allowed one FG in their win over the Chargers. Houston moved to 12-6 to the Under this season, including a 7-2 Under mark on the road. The Patriots hit the Over in 11 of 17 regular season games before the Under on Sunday against the Chargers. New England closed the regular season on a 6-1 Over run at Gillette Stadium, while scoring their fewest points since a 21-14 home loss to Pittsburgh in Week 3.

The defensive numbers are staggering for Houston, especially on the road. The Texans allowed 17 or fewer points in eight of nine games away from NRG Stadium, including a 7-2 Under mark. The Patriots were 4-0 to the Over on totals of 42.5, but three of those came against the Browns, Jets, and Titans. New England ranked third in the league in total offense at 379.4 yards per game and averaged 28.8 points per game, sitting second overall. The chief criticism of New England’s great offensive numbers is the weak competition they faced, averaging 30.9 ppg against the last 10 teams they took on who did not qualify for the postseason.

We’ll trust the best defense in the NFL to cash another Under and slow down the Patriots, while not having a lot of trust in Houston to light up the scoreboard. In seven of nine road games, the Texans scored 20 or fewer points, with their second-highest output coming at Pittsburgh which can be attributed to a huge fourth quarter. Let’s look at the Under in this AFC divisional showdown in New England.

Texans vs Patriots pick: Under 41 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.5.

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Show Bio

Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.

@RogersPicks

Same Game Parlay

Money Line

HOU Texans Win

Game Totals

Under 40.5

Player Rushing Yards

W. Marks (HOU) - 70+ rush yds

Reasoning

Texans vs Patriots SGP pick: Houston Texans ML over New England Patriots (+150)

All aboard the Texans’ bandwagon! I have been on it for much of the season, and everyone should be on it now following their first-round performance. Granted, the Patriots are not the Steelers. But we’re not asking the visitors to win by 24 points; we’re simply asking them to win. They should be able to do it, too. Since starting the season 3-5, head coach Demeco Ryans’ squad has reeled off 10 victories in a row. The defense is flat-out scary. CJ Stroud can’t possibly play as badly as he did on Monday – and his team still won by 24 points. If Stroud can simply play mistake-free football and let his defense cook, Houston should be in good shape.

Even with Drake Maye performing at an MVP level, New England’s offense is not a unit over which Houston’s defense will lose any sleep. In a contest that should be low scoring with extremely small margins, the Texans have good value as considerable underdogs.

Texans vs Patriots SGP pick: Under 40.5 (-105)

As expected, both defenses were utterly dominant in the first round – giving up a combined 9 points while each forcing 2 turnovers. New England came up with 6 sacks of Justin Herbert, while Houston took down Aaron Rodgers 4 times. It was nothing new, either – especially for the Texans. They ranked 1st in total defense, 2nd in scoring, 6th against the pass, 3rd in interceptions and 6th in sacks during the regular season.

On the other side of the ball, don’t be fooled by Houston’s 30 points at Pittsburgh. Other than Marks, the offense was pretty much awful almost the entire game. 2 of the Texans’ touchdowns were scored by the defense. Additionally, receiver Nico Collins left with a concussion and probably won’t play this weekend. I have full faith in defense controlling this matchup the entire way, to the extent that neither team is likely to reach the 20-point mark.

Texans vs Patriots parlay pick: Woody Marks to record 70+ rushing yards (+184)

Dating back to the regular season, Marks has rushed for at least 64 yards in 5 of his last 7 games. The 2 exceptions are easily explained, too. One was such a blowout of Arizona (40-20) that Marks got just 7 carries; the other was the regular-season finale against Indianapolis that turned into a meaningless game once it became apparent that Jacksonville was going to crush Tennessee and clinch the AFC South. In other words, Marks is always productive whenever his volume of work is up to standard. The USC product was awesome on Monday, carrying 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Houston’s game plan for round 2 should be the norm: dominate on defense and run the football. Although New England’s defense is very good, it allowed 101.7 yards per game on 4.2 yards per attempt in the regular season. That’s decent but nothing special.

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SGP

3:00 PM ETSun Jan 18

Texans vs Patriots Same Game Parlay

Parlay Pick

3:00 PM ETSun Jan 18

Sunday's NFL Divisional Round parlay

Top Trends

Point Spread

The Patriots have the best record against the spread in the NFL this season at 12-5-1.

Game Totals

Only 6 of Houston's 18 games this season have gone over the total points line.

Money Line

The Patriots have won 14 of their last 15 games but the Texans have now won 10 in a row.

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Houston Texans offensive tackle George Fant (77) reacts to C.J. Stroud (7) touchdown pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the fourth quarter at NRG Stadium.

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