Texans vs Steelers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round for Monday, 01/12/26
Texans vs Steelers Guest Expert Predictions
One game-ending missed field goal is what saved the Steelers’ season, but they still deserve their flowers. Without DK Metcalf, easily their best offensive weapon, Aaron Rodgers followed a smart game plan by Arthur Smith, resulting in 26 points, 24 first downs and 390 total yards. It was one of the Steelers’ best offensive performances of the season, and they did it when it mattered most. That’s good news for the Wild Card round considering who their opponent will be.
Pittsburgh has hope thanks to Aaron Rodgers, a legendary coach in Mike Tomlin (19 straight winning seasons, no big deal) and a defense of stars that make big plays when they need to. They also have home-field advantage, at least in the first round. Whenever we analyze a Pittsburgh game, it’s impossible not to mention intangibles. Again, Tomlin has outperformed doubters’ expectations and produced another winning campaign, despite a lack of talent at crucial skill positions and season-long metrics that suggest they shouldn’t have. According to EPA stats, the Steelers rank 14th on offense and just 20th on defense. But it just doesn’t seem to matter. Whether it’s calling the right plays at the right moment, a crafty snap count by Rodgers or a forced fumble by TJ Watt, the Steelers have shown they can play up when the chips are down. Watch their 2nd-half victories over the Lions and Ravens (twice) for further evidence.
The biggest matchup advantage on Monday night is in favor of the visitors. The Texans’ defense has been the standard in the AFC this season, ranked 1st overall in total EPA metrics, including the #1 spot in defensive EPA per pass. Their combination of relentless pressure (they lead the NFL) and a secondary that’s as disciplined and sticky as any in the league makes it nearly impossible for enemy quarterbacks to win the day. Of course, Rodgers is not your average quarterback, but at 42, how successful can he be under constant duress?
The Texans’ offense has underperformed for most of the season, but when they’ve needed to make big plays, they have. Their 23.8 points per game rank 13th, more than enough to outpace their opponents in most contests, considering their defensive prowess. Like the Steelers, they lack a consistent rushing attack (22nd in rush yards per game), but CJ Stroud had far better protection in 2025, a group that was top-8 in sacks allowed and led to solid marks for Stroud in interceptions thrown (also among the best, 8th lowest overall) and a solid-enough 218.1 pass yards per game (14th).
Entering the postseason, few programs have been as tested as Houston. They enter with 9 straight victories, including wins over Jacksonville, Buffalo, Kansas City and the Chargers. It’s been a rockier road for Pittsburgh, but since this spread remains at the key number of “3” and we expect a lower-scoring battle, the value still lies with the home team.
Texans vs Steelers prediction: Steelers +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Pittsburgh will be predictably cold, well-under freezing, for this Monday night battle. We wouldn’t have it any other way. While the Steelers’ defense hasn’t exactly played up to its standards (see 2 remarkably bad blown coverages last week against Baltimore, resulting in 2 of the easiest touchdowns you’ll ever see), it’s also clear that the talent is there. Cameron Hayward, the defense’s team captain, was stellar in key moments last Sunday night, stifling Derrick Henry runs and in Lamar Jackson’s face for most of the contest. He had 7 tackles. Others made big plays, too. While the Steelers lack consistency in their secondary, their front-seven is as formidable as any in the NFL. After starting the season well below expectations, they’ve climbed to 12th overall in sacks, accruing 3 more last week against the ultra-elusive Jackson. Houston’s offense is below average (23rd in total EPA metrics), which means the Steelers have a chance to keep this game within distance.
On Monday, they’ll have a greater onus to hold up their team, since the Steelers’ offense will be facing arguably the league’s best unit. Despite finishing the season with a perplexing performance against the Colts (they allowed a Riley Leonard-led offense to drop 30 points on 354 yards — what?), Houston’s defense has been their stalwart unit all season. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a comfortable pocket for nearly the entire game in Week 18, an experience that will almost certainly not repeat in this Wild Card battle. The Texans are ferocious at the line of scrimmage, #1 in the NFL in pressures and 8th overall in sack percentage (8.03%). They’re also top-3 in takeaways and 2nd in turnover margin. If the Steelers’ offense, a group that’s already simplistic and limited (16th in EPA per pass, 26th in rush yards per game), wants to succeed, they’ll need to apply maximum creativity and perfect execution.
The fact that Pittsburgh is led by one of the greatest arms in NFL history gives their offense a shot, but we still don’t feel good about the matchup. Either way, both defenses are in a much better situation. This is our favorite bet of the entire Wild Card Weekend.
Texans vs Steelers best bet: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.
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