HomeNFLNFL PredictionsTexans vs Steelers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round

Texans vs Steelers Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Wild Card Round for Today, 01/12/26

Updated: 9:38 AM ET Jan 12, 2026

Acrisure StadiumESPN

12-5

Texans

8:15 PM ETToday

10-7

Steelers

Texans vs Steelers Best Bets

Game Totals PickBest Bet

Under 39.5(-110)

Reasoning

Pittsburgh will be predictably cold, well-under freezing, for this Monday night battle. We wouldn’t have it any other way. While the Steelers’ defense hasn’t exactly played up to its standards (see 2 remarkably bad blown coverages last week against Baltimore, resulting in 2 of the easiest touchdowns you’ll ever see), it’s also clear that the talent is there. Cameron Hayward, the defense’s team captain, was stellar in key moments last Sunday night, stifling Derrick Henry runs and in Lamar Jackson’s face for most of the contest. He had 7 tackles. Others made big plays, too. While the Steelers lack consistency in their secondary, their front-seven is as formidable as any in the NFL. After starting the season well below expectations, they’ve climbed to 12th overall in sacks, accruing 3 more last week against the ultra-elusive Jackson. Houston’s offense is below average (23rd in total EPA metrics), which means the Steelers have a chance to keep this game within distance.

On Monday, they’ll have a greater onus to hold up their team, since the Steelers’ offense will be facing arguably the league’s best unit. Despite finishing the season with a perplexing performance against the Colts (they allowed a Riley Leonard-led offense to drop 30 points on 354 yards — what?), Houston’s defense has been their stalwart unit all season. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a comfortable pocket for nearly the entire game in Week 18, an experience that will almost certainly not repeat in this Wild Card battle. The Texans are ferocious at the line of scrimmage, #1 in the NFL in pressures and 8th overall in sack percentage (8.03%). They’re also top-3 in takeaways and 2nd in turnover margin. If the Steelers’ offense, a group that’s already simplistic and limited (16th in EPA per pass, 26th in rush yards per game), wants to succeed, they’ll need to apply maximum creativity and perfect execution.

The fact that Pittsburgh is led by one of the greatest arms in NFL history gives their offense a shot, but we still don’t feel good about the matchup. Either way, both defenses are in a much better situation. This is our favorite bet of the entire Wild Card Weekend.

Texans vs Steelers best bet: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.

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Texans vs Steelers Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

PIT Steelers +3.0(-105)

Reasoning

One game-ending missed field goal is what saved the Steelers’ season, but they still deserve their flowers. Without DK Metcalf, easily their best offensive weapon, Aaron Rodgers followed a smart game plan by Arthur Smith, resulting in 26 points, 24 first downs and 390 total yards. It was one of the Steelers’ best offensive performances of the season, and they did it when it mattered most. That’s good news for the Wild Card round considering who their opponent will be.

Pittsburgh has hope thanks to Aaron Rodgers, a legendary coach in Mike Tomlin (19 straight winning seasons, no big deal) and a defense of stars that make big plays when they need to. They also have home-field advantage, at least in the first round. Whenever we analyze a Pittsburgh game, it’s impossible not to mention intangibles. Again, Tomlin has outperformed doubters’ expectations and produced another winning campaign, despite a lack of talent at crucial skill positions and season-long metrics that suggest they shouldn’t have. According to EPA stats, the Steelers rank 14th on offense and just 20th on defense. But it just doesn’t seem to matter. Whether it’s calling the right plays at the right moment, a crafty snap count by Rodgers or a forced fumble by TJ Watt, the Steelers have shown they can play up when the chips are down. Watch their 2nd-half victories over the Lions and Ravens (twice) for further evidence.

The biggest matchup advantage on Monday night is in favor of the visitors. The Texans’ defense has been the standard in the AFC this season, ranked 1st overall in total EPA metrics, including the #1 spot in defensive EPA per pass. Their combination of relentless pressure (they lead the NFL) and a secondary that’s as disciplined and sticky as any in the league makes it nearly impossible for enemy quarterbacks to win the day. Of course, Rodgers is not your average quarterback, but at 42, how successful can he be under constant duress?

The Texans’ offense has underperformed for most of the season, but when they’ve needed to make big plays, they have. Their 23.8 points per game rank 13th, more than enough to outpace their opponents in most contests, considering their defensive prowess. Like the Steelers, they lack a consistent rushing attack (22nd in rush yards per game), but CJ Stroud had far better protection in 2025, a group that was top-8 in sacks allowed and led to solid marks for Stroud in interceptions thrown (also among the best, 8th lowest overall) and a solid-enough 218.1 pass yards per game (14th).

Entering the postseason, few programs have been as tested as Houston. They enter with 9 straight victories, including wins over Jacksonville, Buffalo, Kansas City and the Chargers. It’s been a rockier road for Pittsburgh, but since this spread remains at the key number of “3” and we expect a lower-scoring battle, the value still lies with the home team.

Texans vs Steelers prediction: Steelers +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Player Receiving Yards Pick

C. Kirk (HOU) - Over 16.5 rec yds(-116)

Reasoning

I’m reading between the lines here on this one. Kirk’s receptions line is HEAVILY juiced to over 1.5 across multiple books and when he has 2 receptions this season, he’s cleared this yardage total in 6 out of 7 games. The big reason he should be a factor Monday night is due to his veteran experience, as Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are rookies in their first playoff games. But most importantly, he has a schematic advantage. The Steelers run single-high coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the league and Kirk has a massive disparity in his stats when the middle of the field is open compared to closed. On Monday, he should expect the middle of that Steelers defense to be wide open.

Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Player Rushing Yards Pick

A. Rodgers (PIT) - Over 0.5 rush yds(-108)

Reasoning

Raw data-wise, Rodgers has cleared this line in 9 of 16 games this season, including in 3 straight contests. Rodgers was reluctant to use his legs at all early in the season and the goal was longevity. However, we’ve seen a different approach later in the season as the games became more meaningful and it’s become less about longevity and more about getting the yards needed. It was evident in the Week 18 game that Rodgers was not afraid to use his legs and pick up yards. After all, he still has a little bit of burst despite his age and Achilles injury. For Houston, it’s not worth keeping a safety in the box to monitor his rushing upside and Rodgers will lay it all on the line to get a first down should the opportunity present itself. This will be a fun one!

Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

HOU D/ST to score a TD(+475)

Reasoning

The Texans’ defensive unit is as strong as any in the National Football League. They ranked 3rd in takeaways during the regular season, and held teams to zero first downs on 36% of their drives — a mindblowing number that showcases how special this group is. A likely low-scoring game on Monday will be decided on which offensive unit comes to play. The Steelers return DK Metcalf, but he’ll face a daunting secondary. Meanwhile, the Texans are capable of big plays with the likes of Nico Collins and rookie Jayden Higgins on the outside.

Nonetheless, we’ll take a flyer on the Texans’ defense and special teams flipping this game. Be cautious that FanDuel counts special teams and defensive touchdowns separately, while DraftKings puts the 2 together.

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

C. Kirk (HOU) to score a TD(+700)

Reasoning

Christian Kirk will be playing in his 4th playoff game, but 1st with the Texans. He found the end zone twice during the Jaguars’ run in 2022, which included the thrilling 31-30 game versus the Chargers. With Nico Collins resting last week, Xavier Hutchinson put on a show with a 79% snap share and rookie Jayden Higgins logging a team-high 57%. At +700 to find the endzone, I’m willing to take a shot on the veteran Kirk, while Collins and Dalton Schultz command attention inside the red zone.

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Chris Farley

Show Bio

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

@FarleyBets

Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

HOU Texans -3.0

Player Rushing Yards

W. Marks (HOU) - Over 56.5 rush yds

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

D. Schultz (HOU) to score a TD

Reasoning

Houston Texans -3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (-102)

The Texans are simply a great team that probably should have won the AFC South and would have if not for a dreadful 3-5 start. Their defense is incredible. It is a unit that ranked #1 in the NFL overall, #2 in scoring, #6 against the pass, #3 in interceptions and #6 in sacks. Facing a 42-year-old quarterback – even one as accomplished as Aaron Rodgers – is a recipe for total domination. Houston is nothing special on the other side of the ball, but CJ Stroud is a capable quarterback who has lots of big-game experience – including in the NFL playoffs (advanced 1 round in each of his first 2 seasons).

The Steelers do deserve at least some credit for winning their division, but the Ravens, Bengals and Browns were all total disasters. Pittsburgh’s defense will have to play lightyears better than it did in Week 18 against Baltimore, because you know the home team isn’t going to score much against this defense.

Woody Marks over 56.5 rushing yards (-115)

Marks rushed for 64 yards or more in 4 of his last 6 regular-season contests. One exception was a defeat of the Cardinals that was such a blowout (40-20) right from the start that Marks got just 7 carries; the other was the regular-season finale against the Colts that turned into a meaningless game once it became apparent that the Jaguars were going to crush the Titans and clinch the AFC South. In other words, Marks almost always delivers whenever his volume of work is at a standard level.

I expect the USC product to get plenty of carries on Monday, as my projected game script has Houston in the lead from start to finish – thus being able to keep the ball on the ground. Marks is going up against a Steelers defense that has given up 113.1 yards per game on 4.3 yards per attempt.

Dalton Schultz to score a touchdown (+245)

Schultz has scored only 3 touchdowns this season, but all 3 have come since the start of November and 2 have come in the last 4 games. The veteran tight end is on a heater heading into the playoffs, which is generally the time of year when he thrives. In 2 postseason outings with Dallas during the 2022 campaign, Shultz hauled in 3 TD passes to go along with 122 yards on 12 receptions. In the 2023 playoffs with Houston, the Stanford product scored a touchdown during wild-card action against Cleveland. Schultz now faces a Pittsburgh defense that has given up the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends – including 11 touchdowns.

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Ricky Dimon

Pickswise Expert Prop Picks

Player Rushing Yards Pick

A. Rodgers (PIT) - Over 0.5 rush yds(-108)

Reasoning

Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

HOU D/ST to score a TD(+475)

Reasoning

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Player Receiving Yards Pick

C. Kirk (HOU) - Over 16.5 rec yds(-116)

Reasoning

Bobby Stanley Jr. (PropHolliday)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick

C. Kirk (HOU) to score a TD(+700)

Reasoning

Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Top Trends

Game Totals

Only 6 of the Texans' 17 regular-season games went over the expected number of points.

Point Spread

The Steelers covered the spread in 5 of their 8 home games in the regular season.

Money Line

The Texans finished the regular season on a run of 9 successive wins.

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Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) signals after a first down during the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at NRG Stadium.

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