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Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds & Expert Picks for NFL Week 12 2025 for Sunday, 11/23/25

Arrowhead StadiumCBS
Colts
Colts
Sun Nov 23
Chiefs
Chiefs
WWWLW
Last 5
WWWLL
8-2Record5-5
6-3-1ATS Record5-5-0
6-4O/U Record3-7
Kansas City Chiefs

Colts vs Chiefs Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick
KC Chiefs Win -3.5(+100)

Time is running out for Kansas City, even though the defending AFC champions have eight games remaining. The Chiefs enter Week 12’s home showdown with the AFC South-leading Colts at 5-5, off a last-second loss to the Broncos last Sunday. Kansas City dropped 3.5 games behind Denver for first place in the AFC West, while the Chargers are wedged in between at 7-4.

Before we break down Kansas City’s recent breakdown, let’s not sell Indianapolis short. The Colts went from a quarterback controversy in the preseason to Daniel Jones taking over the position and playing like a Pro Bowler. Jones is third in the NFL in passing yards with 2,659, which is 24 more yards than Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Indianapolis won eight games last season, but has jumped out to an impressive 8-2 start to hold a two-game advantage over Jacksonville in the AFC South.

The Chiefs have been solid at home, going 4-1 at Arrowhead Stadium with four consecutive wins since losing in the Super Bowl rematch to the Eagles in Week 2. Kansas City’s four home victories have come by double-digits, including three wins by 17 or more points. All five losses for the Chiefs this season are by one score, while each of Indy’s two defeats are by seven points apiece.

Two of Indianapolis’ eight wins have come against teams with winning records, beating the Chargers and Broncos. The Colts are looking to sweep the AFC West with a victory over Kansas City, but the Chiefs have won nine consecutive games off a loss of four points or less since 2021. Indianapolis has topped the 31-point mark in five of the last six games, while Kansas City has allowed a total of 24 points in its past three home contests.

Colts vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -3.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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Kevin Rogers
Game Totals Pick
Over 50.5(-110)

Kansas City is 7-3 to the Under and has allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL this season with 181. Through 10 games last season, the Chiefs yielded 161 points, but their defense has still kept them in these games even if the offense has struggled at times. The Colts are 6-4 to the Over this season, hitting the Over in four of the last five games. Indianapolis leads the NFL in points per game at 32.1, while topping the 30-point mark in seven games.

The Chiefs are still averaging 25.1 ppg, which is ninth in the NFL. Amazingly, Kansas City scored 22.6 ppg last season during a 15-2 campaign and run to the Super Bowl, but even the improved numbers haven’t translated into more victories. In the five wins, Andy Reid’s team is putting up 29.6 ppg, while the Chiefs have averaged 21.2 ppg in the five defeats. The defense has stepped up in the victories, allowing 17 or less points in four of five wins.

Indianapolis is 19th in the league in yards allowed per game, while yielding 20.6 ppg, which is ninth. In the two games with a total listed at 50 or higher, the Colts finished Under the total, each in identical 27-20 losses to the Steelers and Rams. In four of the past five games, the Colts have given up at least 24 points, all to teams that average fewer points a contest than the Chiefs do. Kansas City has gone 2-0 to the Under in two games with a total of higher than 50, but those combined totals landed on 49 at Buffalo and 47 against Detroit. Let’s go with the Over here and expect points between these AFC squads.

Colts vs Chiefs pick: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kevin Rogers
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Kevin Rogers

Kevin covers the NFL for Pickswise from sunny south Florida. He has been handicapping the NFL professionally since 2007, as well the NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. He looks forward to a profitable season at Pickswise.
@RogersPicks
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Top Trends
Money Line

The Chiefs have won 4 of their last 5 matchups against AFC South teams.

Point Spread

The Colts have covered in six of their 10 games this season.

Game Totals

5 of the Chiefs' last 7 home games have stayed Under the expected total.

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