HomeNFLNFL PredictionsJacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and Picks for Sunday, 12/21/25

Updated: 1:57 PM ET Dec 19, 2025

Empower Field at Mile HighFOX

Jaguars

4:05 PM ETSun Dec 21

Broncos

WWWWW	Last 5	WWWWW
10-4	Record	12-2
9-5-0	ATS Record	6-8-0
8-6	O/U Record	6-8

Jaguars vs Broncos Pickswise Expert Predictions

Point Spread Pick

JAX Jaguars +3.5(-110)

Reasoning

Not many people pegged Jacksonville and Denver to be division leaders heading into the final three weeks of the season. The Jaguars (10-4) are riding a 5-game winning streak since blowing a 29-10 fourth-quarter lead in a 36-29 loss at Houston last month and have taken a 1-game lead over the Texans in the AFC South. The Jags dominated the hapless Jets last Sunday, 48-20 as 13-point home favorites, punctuated by a 330-yard, 5 TD performance from QB Trevor Lawrence. The former top pick from Clemson also added a TD run, as Jacksonville averages 32.8 ppg in the last 7 games since being held to 7 points in a blowout loss to the Rams in London.

The Broncos (12-2) have their eyes on the top seed in the AFC and a first-round playoff bye after a 34-26 home victory over the Packers last Sunday. Denver trailed 23-14 in the third quarter before outscoring Green Bay 20-3 down the stretch for its 11th consecutive victory. To put it in perspective, each of Denver’s 2 losses came on walk-off field goals against the Colts and Chargers, as the Broncos are 10-2 in games decided by 8 points or less. Denver has struggled mightily in the favorite role, covering just twice in 9 opportunities.

The Jaguars head to the Mile High City at 4-4 ATS as an underdog, but Jacksonville own fo4ur outright wins in the ‘dog role. In 3 of those victories over the Chiefs, Chargers, and Colts, the Jaguars topped the 31-point mark each time. The Jags are visiting Denver for the first time since before the pandemic, knocking off the Broncos, 26-24 in September of 2019. Denver’s track record as a favorite has not been strong and all this success in one-score games can only last so long. Jacksonville has put up two duds this season against the Rams and Seahawks back in October and the Jags are definitely worth strong consideration here to distance themselves in the AFC South race.

Jaguars vs Broncos prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game Totals Pick

Under 47.5(-115)

Reasoning

The Broncos yield the 5th-fewest yards per game in the NFL and give up 18.6 points per contest. However, Denver is riding a 3-game over streak, which includes allowing 26 points in wins over Washington and Green Bay. The offense has picked things up since combining for 28 points against Houston and Las Vegas in early November, averaging 26.7 ppg the last 4 contests. The Broncos were 8-3 to the under before this recent trio of overs, while posting a 4-3 under record at home.

Jacksonville heads west with an 8-6 mark to the over, which includes overs in 3 of the past 4 games. The Jags torched the Jets for 48 points last Sunday, marking the 6th time in the last 7 outings they have compiled at least 27 points. Jacksonville is on a 5-2 over run the past 7 games, while scoring more than 25 points in each of its 6 road contests. Sunday’s total is hovering around 46.5 to 47, as Jacksonville is 3-1 in 4 games with a total of 46 or higher.

Denver has seen 1 game with a total above 46 this season, easily hitting the over of 52 in a 44-24 rout of Dallas in Week 8. The Jaguars will force Broncos QB Bo Nix to throw the ball, since Jacksonville ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 86.3 (Broncos are 2nd at 90.9). The Jags did face 3 of the 6 worst offenses since the start of November (Jets, Raiders, Titans), which has been a huge help. Jacksonville has been clicking offensively the last seven games, but the Jags are running into an excellent defense here at altitude and this looks to be a lower-scoring affair with top seed ramifications in the AFC at stake.

Jaguars vs Broncos prediction: Under 47.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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Ricky Dimon

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports -- just about any and all you can think of! -- and coaching tennis in Atlanta, GA. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me. For Ricky Dimon media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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