Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 11/09/25

An AFC South showdown here as the Houston Texans get ready to do battle with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Unfortunately for the Texans, they’ll be without their starting quarterback CJ Stroud as he deals with a concussion. That means Davis Mills will get the start, and while Mills certainly isn’t great I don’t think it’s enough of a downgrade to warrant this spread. It’s not like Houston’s offense has had a ton of success even with Stroud this year, so I don’t think oddsmakers need to make too much of an adjustment.

Mills mostly struggled in relief last week, but he was being thrown in cold with zero prep against an elite Broncos defense. Now he’ll have had a full week of practice reps as the starter, and be facing a much easier defense. Speaking of defense the Texans have been pretty sound on that side of the ball, so I like their chances of at least keeping this one close. The Jaguars have been up and down, and they’ve mostly looked not great recently.

Last week they eeked out a one-point win in overtime against a very bad Raiders team, and their previous two weeks were a 35-7 loss to the Rams and a 20-12 loss to the Seahawks. Nothing they’ve done recently would have me feeling good about taking them as a road favorite, backup quarterback for the Texans or not. Even with the narrow loss to Denver last week in the game Stroud got hurt in the first half in, the Texans are still 3-2 in their last 5 and have been playing much better ball of late. I’m riding with Mills.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans prediction: Texans +1 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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